Much needed victory for Falcon Men's Hoopsters...

BG really needed a win last night...on a 4 game losing streak and coming off a dreadful game on Sunday...and they got it.  It was a 10-point win against CMU, and yeah, that's a win you should get at home, but BG hadn't been getting games like that.  The schedule gets tougher...moving forward at 0-3 would have been a disaster.

BG played the kind of game they were playing in December, back in the better times.

First, I felt BG played very good defense.  BG mixed man and zone defenses, and were effective in both but especially the zone.  BG was running traps off the zone and even when CMU slipped the trap, BG provided help and everyone rotated back into place and CMU would have to reset the offense.  In particular, I thought Cam Black played a great game.  CMU's bigs play outside, so he was actually guarding the perimeter in man defense and I thought he did a great job.  He played very athletically and with agility.  Simons scored only 7 points and only got 5 shots off.

BG held CMU to .92 points per possession, which is well below their average.  The Chips shot 40% and 39%, which are slightly below average, but BG committed only 12 fouls and CMU turned the ball over on 25% of their possessions.

The second reason is the offensive attack.  When BG was going strong, they had Holmes and Parker both producing, and in this game, they got that and added Henderson as well.  Holmes had what is becoming a pretty normal game...20 points on 7 of 8 shooting, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 4 blocks.  Guy is a very good player.

What helped the most was that Spencer Parker was back.  Parker had 12 points in the two MAC games to date, but came up with 20 on 7 of 11 shooting to go with 5 rebounds.  He also had 4 turnovers, which is something that is a problem.  He is in his first season as a regular, which is something that needs to be kept in mind.  He made 2 3FGs as well, something he has been really struggling with.

Anthony Henderson added 13 points as well.  He shot 4 of 10 and 2 of 7 from 3, and while those are not great numbers, they did provide some outside threat.  He got to the rim a couple of times, too.

Jehvon Clarke continues to struggle with his shot.  He was 3 of 12 shooting.  However, he did have 7 assists over 3 turnovers, which is his highest assist total since the Detroit game and his 2nd straight game with a A/T ratio of 2:1, after 3 straight when he had more turnovers than assists.

Observation:  when this team misses a jumper, it isn't close.

CMU was playing a 2-3 zone, which we know BG has struggled with.  From our preview we knew that Central was neither a great nor an awful defensive team, just a little below average.  The Falcons came up with 1.08 points per possession, tied for their 3rd best D1 performance this year.  They got 1.08 against Presbyterian, for example.

As a team, BG shot 49% overall and 33% from 3, the former number good and the latter number is at least an improvement.  Perhaps most importantly, BG took much better care of the ball, with only 12 turnovers against a CMU defense that employed a lot of pressure and traps.  Finally, BG made 73% of their free throws, which was sorely needed.  CMU won the battle of the boards on both ends, but that was the only place that BG did not get the better of the game.

College Basketball

In terms of game flow, the key part of the game, the end of the first half was really the key stretch.  BG was down 26-19 with about 5 minutes left and the whole thing had a pretty sour feel to it.  To their credit, BG rallied when it might have been easier not to, and BG scored 14 points in 5 minutes (after 35 in 40 Sunday) to lead by 5 at the half.  Parker had 5, Holmes 4, Henderson 3 and Clarke 2 on the run.

In the second half, BG had a little 6-0 run to stretch the lead to 10 and had a 14 point lead with about 14 to play.  The Chips got it back to 5 with about 9 minutes left, but Parker converted an old-school 3 point play to stem the tide.  CMU didn't get the lead inside 10 again until there were almost 2 minutes left in the game, but they never got the spread inside 7 and the Falcons made FTs and coasted home to a comfortable win.

College Basketball

Looking ahead on the schedule, we see right away why this was an important win.  BG plays 3 times in 7 games next week...@WMU Sunday, @OU Wednesday and then Miami on Saturday at the Stroh.  At default settings, BG goes 1-2 next week.  Anything could happen.

Chris Jones Report from New England

Chris Jones has the most sacks in a Patriots season by a defensive tackle with seven including playoffs (that's right CHRIS not Chandler)
— Boston Sports (@tweet__sports) January 12, 2014

More on Chris Jones, who is doing us all proud.  He had 2 solo tackles and 2 assist-tackles against Indy, as well as the sack you see above.

And, as you can see, he continues to generate productivity that is uncharacteristic for an interior lineman, just as he did at BG.

Cut by the worst team in football.  Cut by Tampa.  Playing in the AFC Championship.  Good stuff.

Chip Preview

So, the home stand comes to an end with BG trying to avoid a complete o-fer.  Certainly, the opposition is right, but it was Sunday and when IPFW were in town, too, and that didn't seem to help.

CMU is 7-7 with 2 non-D1 wins that has lost its last 4 D1 games.  Their last D1 win was December 7.  Their best win, RPI-wise, is over Cal-State Northridge (234) and they lost @Jacksonville State (332).  They lost by 7 at home to Miami and then they lost by 15 @Toledo.  They do have 2 road wins.  They lost to Detroit, a team BG beat.

On paper, they are a pretty good offensive team, but that's a little misleading.  They scored 228 points in their 2 non D1 games, so they are scoring 1.13 points per possession for the year, which is well above the national average.  They have several games over 1.18 points per possession (6 of their wins, in fact), so I think it is safe to say they are an above average offense, at least against the competition they have played.

They had 1.04 against UT and .97 against Miami.

If they go play well on offense, it will be an interesting test for BG.  Coach Orr praised his defense in the post-game presser, and there have been some lowing scoring totals for BG's opponents as well (just not as low) but it remains to be seen if BG is playing good defense.  One thing is certain.  They can't allow CMU to score consistently...I'm not sure we want to put ourselves in that position.

Flipping it around, CMU is a poor defensive team.  They have only held 2 D1 opponents under 1.07 points per possession and the allowed UD 1.26.  If BG is going to get well against a MAC defense, this is the chance.  Of course, CMU is sitting up there in Mt. Pleasant saying "if we're going to stop somebody, these guys are the ones."

In the chart below, we can see how CMU gets their production.  They're a pretty good shooting team.  They shoot 45% overall and 30% on 3s, which is not good but they shoot A TON of them.  In one fewer game, they have taken almost twice as many 3s as BG has.  No team has taken more treys than CMU has in the MAC and they are 3rd in made 3s and only 9th in %.  Anyway, they combine that with an excellent turnover rate, and you have strong rankings on the two most important factors.  They average a little above average in offensive rebounds.  Lastly, they don't get to the line a ton by that make 76% of their FT attempts.

On defense, they are allowing teams to shoot 47% so far this year and 35% from beyond the arc.  In short, this game represents a chance for BG to make some shots.  CMU does force a decent amount of turnovers and they are above average protecting the offensive boards.  Finally, they are keeping teams off the line.  In other words, most elements of their defense are pretty decent, its just the shot where they struggle.

They are led by two pretty good players.  First, Chris Fowler, who is second in the MAC with 17 points per game.  He's efficient too, shooting 60% from the field and he's only 6'1".  He's also 3rd in the MAC with 5 assists per game.  He's just a SO, but he's been a very effective player for the Chips this year.

Their second leading player is John Simons who is scoring 11.7 PPG on 52% shooting.  He's also averaging 6 rebounds per game.  He is 6'8", also a SO, but an inside-outside threat.  He's shooting 41% on 63 3FG attempts.

Their other double-figure scorer is Braylon Rayson, a 5'9" FR, who is averaging 10 PPG on 43% shooting.

BG has lost 4 in a row and 3 in a row at home.  This is a winnable game and if BG has any hope of a respectable season--say a home first round game--they need to start to win, especially against teams that are on the lower end of the MAC.  Because of the contrasting styles, it has the potential to be an interesting game, at least.  BG is playing terribly, but they're better than this.  Maybe with Zach Denny getting into the rotation, the Falcons can get some shots to fall against a porous CMU defense and win the game.

I'm not in the locker room.  I suspect they could use it, though.

Football Opponents Released...

Not too much to work with here...the MAC has released the non-conference opponents for the MAC teams...no dates or times, but we do at least know who we are playing and not playing.

The biggest surprise is that BG is not playing Miami.  Remember that the MAC East has 7 teams, so a full round robin is not possible.  Don't know how they decide, but BG will not play the RedHawks, much like they did not play Akron for a few years.

For older fans this is too bad.  That's a long-standing rivalry (granted, jam packed with Falcon heartbreak) and in the 1960s was the biggest rivalry we had.  Also, it was somebody we usually drew a good crowd for, which all adds up to a disappointing announcement.

In MAC play, BG has cross-over games with Ball State, WMU and UT.  Ball State was good this year but lost some guys and WMU is still rowing the boat and it isn't clear where they will be and they will be home games.  UT, of course, will be on the road, as BG tries to break out of the losing streak.  In MAC, it just reflects last year's results...BG has 2 East games at home and 3 away, but one of those is UMass, so that probably evens it out.  Going to Akron is likely to become  a more difficult assignment.

The other stuff is the pre-season schedule...BG will play @Petrino-Free WKU, have VMI and Indiana at home and then @Wisconsin.

From the BGSU release:

BGSU's season will begin with four straight non-conference matchups, as the Falcons will travel to Western Kentucky on Thursday, August 28 to kickoff the 2014 season. The Falcons will begin the home slate on September 6, when they host VMI. The final two non-conference matchups will see the Orange and Brown take on two Big Ten Conference foes, as BG hosts Indiana (Sept. 13) before traveling to Wisconsin (Sept. 20).
Although the MAC has not released the dates and times of the eight conference matchups, Bowling Green is set to play four games at home and four road games during league play. The Falcons will host Buffalo, Kent State, Ball State, and Western Michigan while traveling to Akron, Ohio, UMass, and Toledo.

MAC Recap, Two Games in...

Its early....two games in with 16 more to go for the regular season MAC title.  Just a second to check in...the key at this point isn't the record, but who you have played and beaten...and have you lost at home or won on the road.

Akron for example, is 2-0.  That's with 2 road wins.  They won @Ball State, which is good because it was on the road, and once at OU, because OU was looking very strong.  The latter was a 2OT thriller.  Anyway, with 2 road wins, Akron is off to a nice start.

Buffalo is 2-0, both at home.  They thumped NIU, which is a game you should win at home and then they beat EMU at home, which could later turn out to be a pretty nice win.  Still, they have not played on the road yet.

WMU is 2-0.  That's a home win over the road-challenged Rockets and then a road win over Miami.

Speaking of Toledo...they are 1-1 with a win at home (CMU) and the WMU loss on the road.  That's holding serve in the MAC.

Ohio is 1-1 with a home loss to Akron and a road win over Kent.

Miami is 1-1.  I think Miami might be better than people think.  They won @Cetntral but then turned around and lost at home to WMU.

Kent (1-1) has played two at home, losing to OU and beating Ball State.

EMU (1-1) has played both their games on the road.  They won @BG and lost @Buffalo.  Still, 1-1 without playing at home is not a terrible position.

NIU (1-1) has played twice on the road, losing to Buffalo and beating BG.

Three teams are 0-2.  BG is the only team with two home losses in the MAC.  CMU and Ball State have both lost once at home and once on the road.

Rock bottom? Falcons score 36 at home, lose.

It was about as ugly as it can get.  BG was playing a not good NIU team, which put two not good teams on the same floor and the result was about as bad as it could be.

BG lost 45-36.  It was their lowest point total since 1994 in a game in Oxford.  Based on my review, it is the lowest total for a home game in 71 years when BG beat the boys from Camp Perry.  There have been only 7 D1 teams to score fewer points this season.  Only one--Marquette--was at home.

So, you know.  There you are.  There's not a lot to say about it.  BG shot 29% overall, 23% from 3FG, 43% from the FT line.  BG had 17 turnovers in a 58 possession game, which means they coughed the ball up on almost 30% of their possessions and they shot horribly in the other 70% of the possessions.  The .62 points per possession is the lowest since the 2010-11 game @MSU.  No comparable home performance can be found.

NIU was not much better.  They shot 33%, 40% from 3 and 46% from the line.  They did have 4 fewer turnovers and got 38% of their available offensive rebounds (BG got 23%) and those extra possessions were the difference.

College Basketball Stats

It was nothing to be proud of for NIU, either.  But for BG to lose at home in this fashion to this team--it was a very humbling day.  Losing would have been bad enough, but losing like this was a pretty low moment.

As usual, Richaun Holmes was the only real contributor.  He had 12 points on 5 of 10 shooting, 8 rebounds and 6 blocks.  The rest?  Um.  You know, I'm not going to go through them one by one.  Without Holmes, the rest of the guys were a collective 7 of 31.  That's a collective sin.

One positive element and maybe the only positive element, was the debut of Zach Denny.  He shot 2 of 5, but he was 2 of 3 from beyond the arc and they were WAY beyond the arc.  This team badly needs an outside shooter, and let us hope he gets the chance to pull those defenses out a little bit.  He seemed to settle into the game and is in a position to make a contribution to a team that is badly lost.

In the post-game presser, John Wagner finally asked about the elephant in the room.  He asked Coach Orr if he "had concerns about his job."

"What concerns would I have?" Coach said.  And it was not a flippant answer.  If you get a chance, yo might hop over and check out the last couple minutes of the presser on bgsufalcons.com.  Coach said that he isn't worried because "God is his provider" and he trusts his will.  I have to say, I hear people talk like this from time to time, but I believe Coach Orr is 100% sincere in what he believes.  I don't share his views on the subject, but I do respect him and his beliefs.

This is as bad a start as could have been imagined for his team.  They are 0-2 at home to start the season.  That means only 7 more games at home and 9 on the road.  If you can't beat NIU at home, you have to wonder who you can beat.  Certainly, just for discussion, UT, OU, Akron, and Kent are on the very unlikely list.  You could go on and on.  This has the chances to be historically bad for the Falcons if things do not get turned around.

That starts with another winnable game Wednesday against CMU.  We're a little past the must-win stage here.  This is starting to feel as bad or worse than it was feared to be.

NIU preview

So the Falcons come right back at it tomorrow at the Stroh Center.  I don't know how to put this any other way.  Expectations were low this year and then things looked like they might be better and then things are looking bad again...if BG does not win this game, we're back to the low or lower expectations we had to start with.

 NIU is 6-7 this year, with five wins against teams of an RPI over 250 and one against a non D1 team.  They have on twice on the road, once against Loyola-Chicago and once against UC-Riverside, both sub-300 teams.  They lost their MAC opener by 21 @Buffalo.

I'm a little surprised at their points per possession, which are lousy but not as bad as I expected.  I believe we will find this to be an anomaly.  They scored 111 in one game against a non-D1 team.  Their high point total is 71 for the season and they dropped .72 points per possession against Buffalo.

Anyway, remembering that average points per possession is 1.05 this year in D1, we are clearly looking at two teams that are not very good on offense and better than average on defense.  I don't see either team having the ability to run away from the other, and I would anticipate a pretty ugly affair Sunday.

Looking into the numbers more closely...we have talked about how poor a shooting team BG is, but NIU is, in fact, worse.  They make only 39% of their overall FG attempts, and make 25.9% of their 3FGs, which is almost the same as BG.  This is a team that struggles to put the ball in the basket.  Also, they are turn the ball over as much as BG does.  They are good on the offensive boards and they get to the line a lot, but they shoot 67% which is below average.  In short, there is nothing here to suggest the NIU is as good on offense as their overall efficiency number suggests.  BG has been pretty good on its own defensive boards and at not fouling, so I think this looks like a pretty good matchup.

Flipping things around, you can see that NIU is used to holding teams to worse shooting than BG is getting.  In fact, these numbers are all pretty close, which means you can probably expect BG's normal offensive game.  It will be interesting to see how NIU defends BG...I would expect a lot of lane packing, but who knows?  They don't have Riley, either way.

Individually speaking, it is important to remember than no Huskie is averaging more than 25 minutes a game and 11 are averaging 10 minutes or more.  Their leading scorer is Dontel Highsmith, who is averaging 10.5 points per game on 54% shooting.  Highsmith is a 6'2" FR G.  

Their second leading scorer is Darrell Bowie at an inefficient 9.8 points, shooting 36%.  He's a 6'6" SO who also averages 7.3 rebounds per game.

The team has six players who have taken 60 shots or more and average 37% or less.  FR Aaric Armstead is shooting 28%.

Sunday's game will, therefore, feature two of the least productive teams in D1 on offense.  I have to believe that Falcons win this one at home, but, as mentioned, if they don't we're in for a long cold season at the Stroh.