Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl ICSTR Report

So, the ICSTR has wrapped up its work.  The monks have returned to more contemplative pursuits.  Their final report will be issued later.

The Clawson era finished with 14 straight positive special teams plays.  Both teams had a big play (TD) so those balanced out and then BG had some big punt plays (as did Pitt.)  Anyway, Pitt actually had a slightly better day, at +6 while BG was at +4.  (The whole dumb thing is explained here.)

BG Positive Plays: (+13)
BG punt inside 10 (+2)
BG KO TB (+1)
BG KO Return TD (+6)
BG 46 yd FG (+1)
BG KO TB (+1)
BG punt inside 10 (+2)

BG Negative plays (-9)
Pitt KO Ret to 50 (-1)
Pitt PR TD (-6)
BG 24 yd net punt (-1)
BG KO Ret to 15 after penalty (-1)

Pitt Positive Plays (+14)
Pitt 52 yd net punt (+1)
Pitt KO Ret to 50 (+1)
Pitt KO TB (+1)
Pitt PR TD (+6)
Pitt punt inside 10 (+2)
Pitt punt inside 10 (+2)
Pitt KO TB (+1)

Pitt Negative Plays (-8)
Pitt 22 yard net punt with penalty (-1)
BG KO Ret TD (-6)
Missed 39 yd FG (-1)

Pizza Bowl Benchmark Report

So catching up...here are the benchmarks for the Little Caesar Pizza Bowl.

No terrible surprises here...BG gave up a negative result (in this case, sacks) on 18% of its passing attempts, and that's going to make it difficult to win.  When you back out the sacks, the rushing game goes from really, really bad to just just 2010-awful.  BG only ran the ball 40% of the time in a close game and that's not a winning formula for the 2013 Falcons.

On defense, it was pretty much a nightmare scenario as well.  Pitt averaged 7.2 yards per rush, which makes you hard to beat on the surface...and then Pitt took big advantage over the top,  They didn't pass that much, but 17 yards per completion shows you are taking advantage of packed boxes.

In fact, BG kept the game close with strong 3rd down and red zone defense.  Based on that stats, this game should not have been this close.

Peek-in at MAC Basketball to date

RPI rankings from statsheet.com

41. Eastern Michigan
44. Toledo
67. Ohio
131. Akron
150. Bowling Green
151. Kent State
159. Buffalo
171. Northern Illinois
191. Miami (OH)
199. Western Michigan
271. Central Michigan
314. Ball State


So, we are nearing the end of the non-conference schedule in men's basketball, and I wanted to do a couple posts just to catch everyone up on where the conference teams went--and then the conference as a whole--during the non-conference season.  That chart above is from statsheet.com.  I've used RPI here just because people seem familiar with it.  There are a bunch of RPI rankings and they do vary, but this is one look.

• I think there are two teams who appear to be ahead of the pack:  OU and Toledo
• There are two teams vying to be in the lead group:  EMU and Akron
• A middle group:  Kent, BG and Buffalo
• Three teams vying to get away from the bottom feeders: NIU, WMU and Miami
• Two teams that are bottom feeders:  CMU and Ball State

So, team by team (with the exception of BG)....

Eastern Michigan:

Kind of a surprise to see their ranking this high and I suspect it is probably a little high.  They are 5-5 in D1 games but that is against one of the ten toughest schedules in the country.  Losses to Kentucky, UMass, Purdue Duke and Syracuse.  They have two decent wins...Cleveland State and Green Bay, both at home.

Toledo

UT has been the story of the MAC this year.  They are 11-1 in D1, and were undefeated until losing @Kansas.  They have played the #242 ranked schedule.  Their best wins are over Cleveland State (124) @Arkansas State (#144) and @Boston College  (146).  Don't underestimate the fact that two of those were on the road.  They are 6-0 against teams with RPI from 101-150.  Even without a marquee win, the Rockets have had the best Non-conference season in the conference and it isn't close.

Ohio

8-3 in D1 against the 125th ranked schedule.  I'd say OU is the sleeper so far.   They have losses to @Ohio State, UMass and @Oakland (their only bad loss).  Meanwhile, they have beaten Northern Iowa (86), Mercer (70), and @Richmond (91).  This is a good example of what a MAC team can do when it gets competitive teams in its arena.  Anyway, OU looks to be very solid this year.

Akron

The Zips are 8-5 against all D1 competition.  Their marquee wins are over Oral Roberts at the JAR and then Oregon State on a neutral floor.  They also won @Cleveland State.  Their only bad loss was @Middle Tennessee.  They barely beat a bad Marshall team on their home floor this week.  Anyway, Akron is probably a little underrated based on their non-conference performance.

Kent

The Flashes are 8-4 in D1 against the #246 schedule in D1.  They have lost at home to Bucknell and Cleveland State--a team with a decent RPI but who have been beaten by most of the top MAC teams this year.  Their best win is @Temple.  Of their 8 wins, however, 5 came against teams with RPI over 200.

Buffalo

Buffalo is 5-4 against the 208th ranked schedule.  They picked up a huge win @Drexel, but 3 of 5 D1 wins have been over teams with an RPI over 200.  They also lost to an awful Niagara team.

Northern Illinois

Really??  Yes.  Coach Montgomery is continuing the long road back. They are 5-6 in D1 against the #134 schedule.  With the exception of James Madison, all of their losses are to teams with an RPI over 150.  On the other hand, all of their wins are against teams with RPI over 200.  This happens sometimes...team plays a tough schedule, gets a good SOS ranking, and they end up with no bad losses and no quality wins.  Even so, NIU has a chance to finish 3rd in the West.

Miami

Miami is 4-6 against the 228th ranked schedule.  They have what is the MAC's worst loss this year, at home to a 5-4 DIII Wilmington team.  They also lost to Notre Dame, Arizona State and Xavier--all good losses--with only one +200 RPI loss and that was Evansville.  They beat IPFW and Wright State (neither of which BG did, though both games were at Millett), and they have two other +300 wins.

WMU

6-5 against the #266 schedule.  I always think Hawkins runs a pretty solid program but they have not been the same over the last few years.  Certainly had some transfer issues and could have some issues adjusting to the new foul rules.  They were masters of the hand check.  Anyway, they are probably a little underrated here.  They started their season with a big neutral court win over New Mexico State and while they don't have any other big wins, 4 of their 5 losses are to teams ranked in the top 100 and only one of those at home.  They did lose @Northwestern in a game where they scored 35 points.

Central Michigan

Yes, CMU is 7-5.  Two of those wins were against non-D1 competition (total joke games), and then every other win is over a team with an RPI of 266 or above.  They have also lost @Jacksonville State (298), @Bradley (264) and Montana State (260).  Overall, their schedule is ranked #334.

Ball State

The Cards are 1-8 in D1 games.  Their sole win is over SE Missouri State (220) in Muncie.  They also only lost by 1 to Butler (51) at home.  Their last two losses are to sub-200 teams...@SIU (311) and @James Madison (223).  They lost to Valpo (169) by 19 at home.  I believe they have the right Coach, this is just going to be, as they say, "a process."

IPFW Road Leads to Ruin Again

Throughout December I was saying that BG was ahead of where I thought they would be.   They were winning games against decent teams--at least at home--and I thought they had an outside shot to get to .500 in the MAC this year.

The last two games have presented a team that is pretty much what we figured they would be.  Losing to Wright State was one thing...at least it was on the road...but when you get beaten like that on your own floor by a team like IPFW, it is very worrying.  They would not be a strong MAC team.  If this team shows up in the MAC season, 4 or 5 wins is within reach.

It is 100% true that this team is short-handed.  You've played the whole season without Chauncey Orr, who is a solid player and could certainly contribute on this team.  According to Jack Carle, Sealey will miss another week and that would make a huge difference, not because he's a game changing player but just for the support it would give us up front.  (Not sure that sounded how I meant).  Finally, Zach Denny has not played at all and while he is now practicing with the team, it is not clear when he might enter a game.

I remember Dakich had a team with this problem...short rotation...it was tough to keep things going night in and night out.  Nobody can have a bad day when you are rotating 6 guys and one of them is a freshman.

Anyway.  This was a night out.

First, you have (from all reports) a deadly atmosphere in the building.  The weather was awful.  Anyway.

The first half was just a slow process of the Mastadons pulling away...with 8 minutes left BG was down 8 and then with 4 minutes left that was 14.  It peaked at 17 before BG winnowed it to 13 at the half.

BG did battle back and had the lead down to 5 about 6 minutes into the half.  Just inside 11 minutes BG got the lead to 1 point and got a couple stops but could not convert on the offensive end and IPFW popped the lead back to 5.  That kind of felt like a not good thing, and I don't believe there was another situation where BG had the ball in a one-possession game the rest of the way.  Certainly, BG had a number of opportunities with 3 and 2 point deficits to get a stop but normally the 'Dons got the ball to Flat Tax Forbes and he converted.

IPFW missed a bunch of free throws that could have put BG away, but the Falcons were unable to take advantage and lost 65-60.

IPFW certainly did not have a great game on offense.  They scored only .84 points per possession in an 77 possession game (which is a lot).  BG was just worse, at .77.  It was BG's third worst offensive game of the season, just slightly better than the offensive performance against Wright State.  Based on Todd Walker's call, BG's second half surge came against man defense and the cool-down came against the zone...with no outside shooters, you would expect BG to struggle against the zone, which does not bode well for the EMU game.

Neither team shot very well overall...BG at 40% and IPFW at 39%.  The difference is that IPFW was 7 of 21 from 3FG, which is not great, but it is better than the 2 for 15 the Falcons mustered.  Neither team did any offensive rebounding to speak of, and BG had marginally worse in the area of turnovers.  IPFW got to the line 36 times for the game.  They shot only 50%, which kept BG in the game.  BG shot well (14 of 19), but with about half as many attempts it still yielded a -4 for in the FT category.

NCAA Basketball

Individually, Richaun Holmes continues to play well for BG.  He had 16 points on 5 of 7 shooting to go with 9 rebounds and 2 blocks.  Also, he made both of BG's 3FGs.

Spencer Parker had 15 points on 5 of 10 shooting, which is good.  He also had 6 rebounds.  His effectiveness is hampered by shooting 3s (he missed 2) and 6 turnovers.

Cam Black struggled to shoot (1-5) but did have 11 rebounds.

Guard play for BG was pretty soft.  Jehvon Clarke had 16 points, but it took him 18 shots to get there, a bagel for 6 from beyond the arc, and 4 assists over 6 turnovers.  Anthony Henderson was 1-10/0-3 shooting.  He did have 6 rebounds and 5 steals.  And fouled out.

Todd Walker made the point during the radio broadcast that this is not how you want to enter conference play.  He's right.  Win these two winnable games, and you're looking at the world completely differently.  Lose them and you're just limping in.

Hopefully, BG will get some bodies back and that will help and hopefully things will straighten around for the MAC season.  Right now, it is looking like a tough slog.
\
Lastly, we gotta stop playing these guys.  There was the Ron Lewis game where he was fouled on a last second 3, causing Dakich to go ballistic post-game and get a letter from the MAC office...and then a debacle last year and an ugly performance this year.  No more Mastodons.

Men's Hoops. Past Opponent Land

Earlham College

Earlham is 2-8, not counting the BG game, which was an exhibition for them.

South Florida (9-5, RPI 183)

Lost at home to Detroit.  Beat Alabama and Florida Gold Coast at home, too.

Wisconsin (13-0 RPI 3)

Beat Oral Roberts and St. Louis (both of whom beat BG) as well as @Virginia.

Saint Louis (12-2 RPI 48)

Only losses to Wisconsin and Wichita State.  Also won @Vanderbilt.

Presbyterian (4-10, RPI 350)

Best win is against #268 UNC-Greensboro.  Only 2 D1 wins.  Four losses against teams with RPI 293 or above.

Oral Roberts (6-7, RPI 64)

RPI might be a little cock-eyed on this one.  They have 4 D1 wins.  Lost to Akron 74-64 at the JAR.

WKU (8-5 RPI 135)

4-2 since losing to BGSU.  Losses to Louisville and Ole Miss, with a nice win over Southern Mississippi.

Xavier (11-3, RPI 25)

OT win over BG was first win in a (still current) 6-game winning streak which includes wins over UC, Alabama, Wake Forest and St. John's.

North Dakota (3-8 RPI 186)

They have 1 non-d1 win since the BG game, with losses to South Dakota State and University of Northern Colorado.

Morehead State (9-6, RPI 139)

Won against South Dakota and a non-D1 opponent and lost to Tennessee since the BG game.

Detroit (7-8 RPI 170)

Beat a non-D1 opponent and #348 Bethune-Cookman since BG game.

Wright State 8-7 (RPI 299)

No games since beating BG.

Which means....

BG's best win...Western Kentucky
Worst loss...Wright State
Biggest missed opportunity...Xavier and it isn't close.

IPFW Preview Brings PTSD from last year

The IPFW Mastodons will make the short trip over to the Stroh tomorrow for a final bracket-buster return game.

On paper, you see that IPFW is 10-5 and you might think this team is a little better then they are.  When you look at who they have beaten however....

2 wins against non D-1 teams
1 win over Texas Pan-American (RPI 338)
1 win over Tennessee Tech (RPI 278)
1 win over Keenesaw State (RPI 288)
2 wins over Eastern Illinois (RPI 317)
1 win over Dartmouth (RPI 280)
1 win over Bradley (RPI 246)
1 win over SIU-Edwardsville (RPI 347)

They have played, to date, the #332 schedule in the nation.

Their worse loss is to Texas A&M Corpus Christi (RPI 306) and they also loss to Miami and Eastern Kentucky, Dayton and Illinois.

They do have 3 outright road wins, including @Bradley.

Last year's Bracket Buster game definitely had that "not so fresh feeling" for BG.  The Mastodons shredded BG for 1.18 points per possession for the game and led by 17 at halftime, and cruised to a 13 point win.  Coach Orr after the game:  "We didn't guard."  A'uston Calhoun was benched for the entire second half.

Last year's tempo was really upbeat at 74 possessions.  This year, IPFW is running 67 possessions per game, which is a pretty average pace.  They are, however, a scoring machine, at least against the schedule they have played.  They are averaging 1.15 points per possession which is in the top 40 in D1.  They are shooting 49% from the field overall and 40% from beyond the arc.  They shoot a lot of 3s...they are 50th in the nation in 3s attempted and 28th in converting them.

They also take good care of the ball, are above average on the offensive boards and find their way to the line pretty often, even if they shoot FTs only as well as BG does.

College Basketball

They are a decent defensive team.  They allow 1.03 points per possession, Opponents are shooting 45% and 35% against them and they don't force a large amount of turnovers.  They do an above average job on the offensive boards and they don't foul too much.

Still, the schedule...by the way, they played another non-D1 team on Saturday.

If you want the best comparison, they lost 94-87 @Millett.

Individually, they are similar to Wright State, if not so extreme, in that they play 9 guys over 10 minutes a game and only one player gets 30 minutes.  Points are distributed in a very even manner.  Their leading scorer is Luis Jacobo, who scores 13.8 in 25 minute with 46% shooting.  Their other double figure scorer is Steve "Flax Tax" Forbes, who is 11.3 points in less than 21 minutes.  He is 6'9", shoots 65% and gets 5 rebounds per game.

Both of these players started at Stetson, went JUCO and then ended up with IPFW.

PG Pierre Bland scores 9.8 points and adds 4.3 assists per game and leads the team with over 30 minutes a game.  In limited attempts, Bland is shooting 47% from 3FG.  5'11" Fr G Mo Evans also scores 9 points a game on 47% 3FG shooting.

In total, they have 7 players who have attempted at least 1 3FG per game.

This is an interesting mix of two teams.  These teams with soft schedules are really hard to predict...you don't know how good they are.  Still, if Miami was +7 at their place, I'd like to think BG could be +7 at the Stroh.  It is a clear clash of styles which was very ugly for BG last year, but hopefully we can be better prepared.  Finally, with our short rotation, you always worry about playing teams with this kind of depth.

Happy New Year to the Falcon Nation!

A new year is born...