25 Questions that go Bowling...

Recently released CAT Scan
of Interim Coach Allen Baer

What is their body of work?

They had a great year.  They were 10-2, with their only losses @Stanford and Utah State.  They beat Brigham Young, San Diego State and La Tech and won their last 6 games.  This is a team that knows how to win and is playing with a great deal of confidence.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

They have 28 on their two deep which is a lot.

Who are their statistical leaders?

We talked about this earlier in the week.  QB Fales is the 3rd most effective passer in the country and the most accurate.  Benwikere is tied for 3rd in interceptions and Travis Johnson is tied for 7th in sacks and 10th in TFL.  Noel Grigsby is 13th in receiving yards.

What is their turnover ratio?

They are pretty good at +8 which puts them at #25 in the country, which surprises me, but there it is.

Offense:

How is their QB Play?

Very, very good.  David Fales is their QB.  He started at Nevada, went to a junior college and then moved to San Jose State last December.  This is his first year with them.  He is not a threat to run, but his passing game is very, very efficient.

What is their scoring and yards per play?

They score 35 points a game which is in the top 30 in the country.  They earn 6.4 yards per play, which is also very efficient.

Can they run the ball?

Their lead RB is De'Leon Eskridge, who will go over 1,000 yards sometime tomorrow and averaged 5.1 yards per carry.  Their official rushing average is 3.5 yards per carry, but when you factor sacks out they are at 4.2 yards per carry, which is good.  They did not run the ball well in a number of their games, however, and BG is going to have to have success in this part of the game to compete.

Eskridge, BTW, played three years for Minnesota and had 4 100 yard games for the Gophers.

What exactly is your profession?

Do they pass the ball?

They are 2nd in the nation in pass efficiency.  I mentioned Fales completing 72% of his passes.  One of the things we look for is trade offs--was that accomplished with a steady diet of bubble screens and easily completed passes.  They get 13 yards per completion, which is very, very good and when it is paired with 72% completion, it becomes a deadly combination.  BG had a strong pass defense this season and it will need to show up.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays, which is more than you might expect. (sack adjusted).

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

As you would expect, they are good.  They convert at 45%.

Do they score in the red zone?

4.7 points per trip is slightly above average and 4.3 trips per game is a strong number and not unexpected.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They do give up sacks....but also pass a lot.  It works out to 5.6% of attempts which is just average protection.  Also, they gave up 13 sacks in one game.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They are 25th in the nation in scoring defense with 21 points per game.  They do allow 5.2 yards per play, which is not especially great, so we will keep our eyes open for what the underlying answer might be.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Their rush stats look good but they are a little big deceiving.  They get a ridiculous number of sacks, which counts against rushing.  On actual rushing attempts, they allow 4.6 yards per carry which is not a great number.  BG simply has to get this done to have a chance.

Can they be passed on?

Their pass efficiency defense is 40th in the country.  However, they allow 58% completions and 11.7 yards per reception, which is on the high side.  Their efficiency is helped by having 15 INTs and only 18 TD passes.  If you can stay away from negative plays, they do give some yards upt.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They do, they allow 33% first downs, which is 23rd in the country. (BG is 5th).

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow fewer than 3 trips per game and 4.5 points per trip, both of which are very solid number.

An exclusive review of game film reveals
the secret to the SJS pass rush.

Do they pressure the QB?

They are downright ridiculous here.  They have 40 sacks which is 5th in the nation (BG is 9th).  That means they get a sack on 9% of their opponent's passing plays.  One thing I noticed is that they had a bunch of sacks early and then fewer as the season went on, so perhaps something was noticed. The offense can also impact this.  It is possible after seeing those sack numbers teams only threw five step drops with max protect...something I thoroughly expect BG to do tomorrow.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Their net punting is 36.7 which is slightly better than BG's, which means good but not great.  None blocked.

Punt Return?

At last a weak point...they only get about two yards a return and are among the 10 worst teams in D1.  Zero blocks, no TDs, long of 10.

Placekicking?

Lopez was 15-15 with a long of 45 and 3 over 40.  Somehow, he managed to miss 3 extra points, however.

Kickoff?

Really good.  Teams start on the 24 and they had 23 kickoffs.  Note, they kickoffs are handled by the punter.

Kickoff Return?

They are very, very good.  They are 6th in the country in yardage and have 2 TDs.  This is going to be pretty important...I'd expect a lot of pooch style kicks to keep the ball away from their guys, much like we did for Dri Archer.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

First, they have an interim coach.  You never know how players will react to that...although without actual numbers, it seems like it doesn't have the impact you would expect.

Second, San Jose State has a long trip, which normally is a disadvantage, though they have been in DC all week.  The 3 pm game time helps mediate this as well.

To me, this is a great test.  BG's defense was highly ranked in the MAC, and we will find out how good we really are tomorrow against probably the best offense we have seen this year.  BG needs to control the running game and contain the passing game to win.  If San Jose State is effective running and passing, then I start to get cold shivers.

On offense, BG has got to establish the run.  If we can, then maybe we can open up some passing lanes.  I expect the Falcons to be very cautious throwing the ball.  They don't want to give up sacks and INTs, and for that reason, I would expect us to use very safe passing plays.

It is easy to see why the Spartans are strong favorites.  BG will need to provide a great effort, especially on defense, which I am looking forward to seeing if they can do.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the Falcon Nation

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the Falcon Nation.  May the day bring you Peace...


The Magi (The Heart of Man is a Palace)

Oh the magi were the prophets
And they wandered through the desert
They saw the star above them
And they knew they'd find their way
Through the valley of the shadow
With the hope of human kindness
They were strengthened by the vision
Of a new and brighter day.

Chorus:
And the wisemen spoke of peace on earth,
Of harmony and struggle
Know you now a cycle's gone and a new one is revealed.
In the weaving of your fingers
In the whisper of a love that's born again
In the weaving of your fingers
In a promise that we made that never ends.

Well now each man is a pilgrim,
Yes, we all must make the journey
And it seems that time is telling us to be all that we can
To help lift up the fallen, we must sow the seeds of goodness
The torch is passed among us now to light the way of man.

For the heart of man's a palace
And his dreams are as the sunlight
They burn away the darkness, as they warm the freezing cold
As an eagle flying higher, as a river through the canyon
The diamond star shines down upon, a pathway to the soul

(Chorus)2x

In a promise that we made that never ends.
In a promise that we made that never ends.

San Jose State Notes and Rankings....

A few Christmas Eve notes gleaned from the San Jose game notes and the NCAA statistics....

Heading into the Military Bowl game and for the seventh time in the last eight weeks, San Jose State is the most accurate passing team among Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) programs. Only three FBS teams completed at least 70 percent of its passes.

San Jose State quarterback David Fales is the most accurate passer among the nation’s top-100 ranked quarterbacks in games played through December 1. It is the fifth week in a row Fales is the most accurate passer in the country.  Only three players among the top-100 quarterbacks enter this week’s play completing 70.00 or more of their passes.

San Jose State’s Austin Lopez enters the week as one of three Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) kickers to convert all his field goal tries this season based on a minimum of seven field goals made.  (Austin Lopez San Jose State 15-15)

Bowl History:  San Jose State has a 5-3 record in bowl games and a 2-2 record against the MAC.

The Military Bowl is the Spartans’ first bowl game east of the Mississippi River.

2006 New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, N.M.
San Jose State 20
New Mexico 12

1990 California Raisin Bowl
Fresno, Calif.
San Jose State 48
Central Michigan 24

1987 California Bowl
Fresno, Calif.
Eastern Michigan 30
San Jose State 27

1986 California Bowl
Fresno, Calif.
San Jose State 37
Miami (Ohio) 7

1981 California Bowl
Fresno, Calif.
Toledo 27
San Jose State 25

1971 Pasadena Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.
Memphis State 28
San Jose State 9

1949 Raisin Bowl
Fresno, Calif.
San Jose State 20
Texas Tech 13

1947 Raisin Bowl
Fresno, Calif.
San Jose State 20
Utah State 0

Noel Grigsby, Chandler Jones, Ryan Otten and Jabari Carr are the four active Spartans with at least 1,000 career pass receiving yards.

Tight end Ryan Otten is the first San Jose State player this season to accept a post-season all-star game invitation. He is headed to the Senior Bowl scheduled for January 26, 2013 in Mobile, Ala.

Otten's current 16.05 yards per catch average is best among FBS tight ends with 40 or more receptions and a 10.00 or more yards per catch average in games played through December 1.

In the Sagarin ranking, they are the #30 ranked team.

San Jose State is ranked:

11th in passing offense
6th in kickoff returns
2nd in passing efficiency
5th in sacks

Fales 3rd in passing efficiency
Bene Benwikere 3rd in interceptions
Travis Johnson T-7 in sacks

ESPN Labels Jones Day 3 Draft Sleeper

In this blog post, Steve Muench, a "colleague" of Todd McShay, says that Chris Jones is a day 3 sleeper in the NFL draft.  Most projections I have seen show Jones as not being drafted, but here is what Muench says after he details the downsides to Jones...

Still, Jones is an intriguing late-round possibility for a 4-3 team looking for depth at defensive tackle. His quick first step, violent hands and motor make him disruptive, and he's relentless against both the run and the pass.

He sometimes gets overzealous and hits the quarterback late, like he did in the Buffalo game, but he doesn't back down and gets under the skin of his opponents. Jones appears to be the kind of prospect people love to play with and hate playing against. NFL comparison: Tennessee DT Karl Klug,

San Jose Game By Game

And now the path is clear....on the horizon, for Thursday afternoon, is the Military Bowl, featuring the Falcons and the San Jose Spartans.  I will be devoting this space to examining the game that lies ahead.  We're playing a very good team...but that is the way it is supposed to be.  I look forward to seeing how BG performs against a quality team.  (For reference, I had them #18 in my final blogpoll ballot and the blogpoll had them #24.

The first step is to look at the Spartans and each game they gave played this season on their way to a 10-2 mark.

#10 in my blogpoll @ Stanford  17 - 20 (L)

They opened their season against Stanford, the team that today is waiting to play in the Rose Bowl on January 1 and who won the PAC-12.  Stanford led 17-3 at halftime, but the Spartan came out in the second half and scored two unanswered TDs in the third quarter to tie the game.  It stayed tied until early in the 4th when Stanford converted a fumble in a FG for a 20-17 lead.  From there, Stanford D's locked it down pretty tight and forced three straight 3 and outs and then a pick on the last possession to preserve the win.

The Spartans held Stanford to 4.2 yards per play and actually outgained them as well.  San Jose had 2 turnovers and Stanford did not have any.

UC Davis - 45 - 13 (W)

SJS cruised over IAA UC-Davis in their second game.  That's 503 yards of total offense for the Spartans.  De'Leon Eskridge had 130 yards and 3 TDs (8.1 avg) and David Fales had 277 passing yards.  The SJS forced 3 turnovers, 1 fumble and 6 sacks.  Travis Johnson had 4 sacks and 6 TFL.

UC Davis finished 4-7.

Colorado State - 40 - 20 (W)

The Spartans racked up 568 yards in beating the Colorado State Rams with a strong second half surge.  Colorado State finished 4-8.  Fales was 37 of 34 for 370 yards and 3 TDs, which is a pretty productive day by any measure.  Three receivers had 100 yard games and Noel Grigsby became the career receiving leader at the school.  Eskridge ran for 86 yards.  The defense had 5 sacks and an INT.

@San Diego State - 38 - 34 (W)

This was a huge road win over a quality football team.  Looks like this was a pretty exciting game.  The Spartans scored 17 points in the last 5 minutes of the game, including a TD pass with :50 left to seal the victory.  It was the first win for SJS in 60 years in San Diego.  The Spartans had only 367 yards but they also ran only 55 plays to get there.  Their offense was assisted by one special team TD as well.  The defense contributed 5 sacks by 5 different players.

@Navy 12 - 0 (W)

The Spartans went on the road and won a low-scoring game against Navy.  SJS did dominate the game with 36 minutes of possession time and 3 of their field goals came on red zone possessions, once from the 2.  Looking at the stats, you'd never guess this was a team that scored 12 points.  Meanwhile, the defense got 5 sacks on 18 Navy passing attempts and held the Navy option attack to 102 sack adjusted yards on 33 carries.  Navy finished 8-4.

Utah State 27 - 49 (L)

In their final loss of the regular season, SJ State ran into a buzzsaw on their own field and lost handily to Utah State.  As we know, the Aggies went on to finish 11-2 including a bowl win over Toledo and then sent their coach to Wisconsin.

I swear to god, I am not making this up. Utah State sacked Fales 13 freaking times for 102 yards.  They attempted 50 passes so with the sacks that's 63 attempts which puts the sack percentage at around 20%.  Dang.

Utah State had bolted out to a 28-3 but the Spartans staged a furious late 2nd Q rally to get to 28-20 at  the half, but the Aggies reasserted their dominance to pull away in the 2nd half.  This is really the first team to solve the SJS defense, allowing no sacks, rushing for 8.8 yards per carry and passing for 273 yards on 26 of 35 passing.  San Jose ran a ridiculous 92 plays in the game.

@ UTSA - 52 - 24 (W)

SJS got their mojo back with an easy win over Texas-San Antonio, which is making a transition between FCS and FBS.  The Spartans had 38 points at halftime, and scored all 52 with only 17 first downs.  UTSA had 6 turnovers for the game.  Fales had 279 passing yards with a struggling rushing game.  The Spartans also had a fumble recovery for a TD and a kickoff return TD.  UTSA was 8-4 with a hybrid schedule.

Texas State 31 - 20 (W)

Texas State was actually leading this one at the half (20-17) and then San Jose State scored 2 second half TDs to put the win away.  The defense threw a 4 punt, 2 INT shutout in the second half as well.  For the game, Texas State had only 10 first downs despite having 303 yards in total.  They turned the ball over twice and were 4-13 on third down.  For the first time in several weeks, SJS had success running the ball, with 5.1 yards per carry.  Fales threw for 376 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs.  Texas State was 4-8.

@Idaho  42 - 13 (W)

This is the only common opponent between BG and San Jose State.  BG beat Idaho 21-13 in the season's darker days, while the Spartans smoked the Vandals at the Kibbie Dome.  Idaho finished 1-11.  It wasn't a perfect performance for SJ State--they led 14-7 at halftime and had 4 turnovers for the game.  For the game, Fales ended up 27 of 39 for 328 yards.  The running game was pretty ineffective, however.  The defense whipped up 6 sacks in holding Idaho to 12 first downs and 288 yards.  Idaho was 4 of 18 on third down.

@ New Mexico State 47 - 7 (W)

As you would expect, SJS throttled NM State, who finished 1-11 and was among the worst FBS teams.  They led 37 to 0 at halftime and cruised home from there.

BYU - 20 - 14 (W)

In another big win, the Spartans beat BYU, who won their bowl game over SD State.  It was 20-7 until late in the 4th when BYU scored to make it this close.  BYU outgained the Spartans but had 3 turnovers.  Fales threw for 305 yards and 3 TDs, again with little support from his running game.  The defense had 4 sacks to go with the turnovers.

Louisiana Tech 52 - 43 (W)

In a wild shoot out to finish the season, San Jose State beat a very good La Tech team 52-43. Bené Benwikere tied a school record with 3 INTS, and Eskridge had 217 rushing yards to help the cause.  Fales had 367 yards passing.  In total, SJ State had 610 yards and LA Tech had 541--483 of them through the air.  As La Tech rallied to try and catch up, they threw INTs on both of their last two possessions.

Heartbreaking Loss, Part II

So, turning from the drama to the numbers, I continue to examine the Falcon loss at South Florida last night.

The biggest news is that BG played 2-3 zone for the game, which is the first time they have used it all season.  Coach Hopson said after the game that BG did not feel like they could guard USF in a man to man--the Bulls have some big wing players.  He said that was a shame because the man defense has been good lately.

So, they went to the zone and Coach Hopson conceded that we were probably a little rusty.  BG did end up getting stops in the last 10 minutes of regulation, but in total, it was a game where BG's ability to score is responsible for the team being in the game and not defense.

BG allowed 1.11 points per possession, which is a lot.  BG was able to score 1.08 points, which is their best since the Detroit game.

BG outshot USF, which is remarkable in itself. BG shot 43% from the field and made 11 of 30 from beyond the arc.  (Note:  lost in that is that BG was 10-20 from beyond the arc in regulation and then 1-10 in overtime).

Despite being outshot, South Florida was able to pick up the win by taking very, very good care of the ball (10 turnovers in 55 minutes, or 13% of possessions), pick up 44% of their available offensive rebounds, and, most importantly, have a +9 advantage in free throws.  BG had 20 fouls called and USF had only 12 for the game.

For its part, BG only had 14 turnovers (18%) and had 37% of the available offensive rebounds, which are both pretty good results.  However, the small advantages the Bulls had in those areas, combined with the big advantage at the line, allowed them to win despite being outshot.

NCAA Basketball

Individually, Jordon Crawford had a career high 27 on 10-21 shooting, 4 of 9 from 3, to go with 6 rebounds and 4 assists.  He did have 7 turnovers.  In the post-game, the Tampa media was asking about Crawford, and Coach Orr said something like, "I'm learning as I go" with Jordon, and then he said something like, you just have to let him be.

You can read into that what you want.  He scored nothing in the first 20 and then 27 in the next 25.  He made huge, huge plays and then made 7 turnovers.

A'uston Calhoun had a hard-earned 22 points on 9-22 shooting, he was 1-6 from beyond the arc (?), and added 8 rebounds.

Cam Black had 7 points (3 of 3 shooting) and 6 rebounds in 27 minutes, which is pretty respectable (though he did foul out).  James Erger had 4 rebounds in 36 minutes and Richaun Holmes had 5 blocked shots.

For those of you who are interested in minutes played, Anthony Henderson played 44 and Erger played 36, while Orr played 19 (7 points and 4 rebounds on 50% shooting) and Kraus played 11, Clarke 6 and Sealey 6.

Coach Hopson said BG used the lineup it did in OT because it seemed to be working.  That lineup was Crawford, Henderson, Erger, Calhoun and Holmes.

The Falcons seem to have increasing confidence in Anthony Henderson.  He had 9 points on 3-9 shooting but was 3-6 from 3.  BG had 21 bench points last night...Todd Walker made the point that the team needs an answer to a surrounded Calhoun with the ball in the paint, and if Orr and Henderson can provide that moving forward (along with Crawford) we become a lot harder to defend.

So, the Falcons head into the Christmas break on a disappointing note.  They are 5-6 and 3-6 in D1 competition.  Having said that, I actually think they are better than they were expected to be.  They had been playing better over the past few games, but those were at home and you didn't know how that counted, but this one was on the road and they played well.

Their Kenpom rating is 177 which is right in the middle of D1, (6th in the MAC as well) and again, better than I thought they were going to be and better than they looked like they were going to be early on.

It will be interesting to see how the team reacts to this break.  They can either come back recognizing they might be relatively close or they can come back discouraged.  They have a very winnable game against North Dakota (though away) on the 29th and then @Temple.

Heartbreaking loss, Part I

It was a heartbreaking result to get...on the road, major conference team and the Falcons had several chances to win the game and were just one play short from what would have been a huge win.

This is not to be critical.  I think we played pretty well and we are ahead of where I thought we would be at this point.

Having said that, the game was right there and it could have been and a triple overtime loss, while great entertainment, has to just rip the heart out of our guys.

I just listened to the presser and Coach Orr was about as down as I have heard him.  He normally is, to say the least, pretty evenly keeled, and he was proud of the effort but you could hear the disappointment in his voice.

"Tough, tough, tough game," he said.

And he's right about that.

Look, with 14 minutes left, BG was down 12 points.  BG went on a 20-6 run over the next 6 minutes, with 12 of those points coming from Jordon Crawford, who had not scored at all in the first half.

That run continued and BG was leading by 4 with less than 90 seconds left.  With 1:07 left Crawford nailed another 3 and BG had a 7 point lead and you just gotta figure you get the win at that point.  That's a huge lead for one minute.

USF came down and hit a 3 with :44 left to reduce the deficit to 4.  BG turned the ball over but then got a turnover on the other end of the floor and now had :22 left with a 4 point lead.  They fouled Calhoun, who had made 20 straight free throws, but missed the front end of the 1 and 1, and USF came down and hit a layup to cut it to 2 with :14 left.

They fouled Calhoun again, this time he split the pair with :10 left and USF came down and hit a clutch 3 to force overtime.

No two ways about it.  That's very disappointing.  One free throw, one basket, and the game is over.  (Todd Walker also mentioned that BG had the chance to extend the lead earlier and had some empty possessions which also would have made the difference).

So, onto OT.  On the road, you gotta feel like we're in real trouble.  This time it was the Bulls who led by 4 with :33 left.  After the lights literally went out and there was an extended break to fix them, USF missed the front end of two 1 and 1s and Jordon Crawford got into the lane and made 2 layups and then Holmes blocked a buzzer beater and this time it was the Falcons cheating death.

From then on, however, it was the Falcons who had the chances to win.  The second overtime was pretty slow...Crawford hit another bucket to put BG up 3 with :32 left, but Victor Rudd did it again, running down the floor and nailing another 3 to tie the game.

Still, BG had the ball with :25 left and coming out of a timeout.  They held for the last shot and Crawford took and missed a tough jumper.

If you think this is crazy, you actually haven't seen anything yet.

Teams get tired in OT and you see less scoring, and in fact, that's how these things keep going so long.  So for the first four minutes of the 3rd OT, USF did not score at all.  BG had hoops from Calhoun and Crawford and led by 4.  Rudd hit a layup to cut the lead to 2 with :59 left.

BG ran clock and with :32 Erger turned the ball over.  However, there was a scramble on the floor and USF called a timeout they did not have, which is a technical foul.  Crawford hit both free throws. With the Falcons now up 4, USF came down and for reasons which are hard to fathom was allowed to drive right into the lane and get a basket with a foul.  They missed the free throw, and with :27 it was a 2 point lead.

And here is the game's key (or at least conclusive) segment.

BG inbounded the ball under heavy pressure.  BG threw a long pass to Anthony Henderson who was racing to the basket.  Coach Hopson said after the game that he should have just pulled it out, but he went to the basket and if he gets the hoop then BG's up 4 and the game is close to being in hand.  Instead, he is blocked and neither kills the time nor gets the basket.

Or the foul.  The Falcon's bench was apparently going crazy about the lack of a foul call.  Even in the post-game, Coach Orr, who never complains about the officials, indicated that he felt Henderson was fouled.

USF, of course, runs right down the floor, Rudd drives the baseline, gets the basket and also a blocking foul on Erger, another call that Coach Orr cited as being doubtful, in his mind.

Of course, Rudd nails the free throw and now they lead by 1 with :13 left.  BG still had one last chance, but Calhoun missed a 3 and that was it.

NCAA Basketball Stats

That's the story.  BG had about 5 chances to put it away, and it would have been a very high quality win.  They didn't and it goes down as a "tough, tough, tough" loss.