Monday, February 13, 2012

One last note from the Rocket game...

In the post-game presser, a member of the media asked Tod Kowalczyk the obligatory question...

"How frustrating is it...."  to be filled in by whatever just happened....

I don't understand why this question always gets asked.  I know they are trying to find out the emotions involved...but it is ALWAYS frustrating to lose.  It is just a pointless question.

The only exception is in Muncie, where the reporters want to know why you were shading the high ball screen to the weakside.

Anyway, Kowalczyk said:

"Don't feel sorry for the Rockets."

To which I say:  "Don't worry.  Nobody does."

Sunday, February 12, 2012

East Mauls West....

Seems like this post has been written before....but here we go...

The East has been the dominant division in the MAC for a few years, and that was literally never more true than it was this year in cross-over games.  On one hand, the MAC has de-emphasized divisional play by making the tournament seedings "division agnostic," but on the other hand, there is a huge advantage in scheduling.  Ball State and WMU both, for example, will benefit from a second run through the (by far) weaker teams in the conference and BG, currently in the hunt for a bye, has to play Akron, Kent, OU and Buffalo.

It is what it is.  But, in a weird way, as long as the league is scheduled like this, the tournament seedings cannot be truly "division agnostic."

This year, there were 36 games....and 30 of them were won by the East.  This is the highest over the past four years.  The last three years were 27-9, 26-10 and 29-7.  Crazy....over four years, 112-32.

FWIW, there are other ways to schedule.  The Big East has more teams than the MAC and they don't use divisions.  Anyway, it is what it is...which means, we use this system, and the East continues to be much stronger than the West and it isn't close.  (I think you can argue only the Rockets are on an upward vector in the West, too, but that's for another day).

Real MAC Standings

So here they are, the REAL MAC standings for today.  As you can see, BG has now moved up into bye territory as OU continues to struggle.  Having said that, our ranking ahead of them is based on the win at the Stroh, but we play OU again Wednesday.  There are 5 games left for everyone.  If BG were to beat OU in Athens, we'd be 1 up plus the tie breaker.  As of now, BG is 1 game up on EMU (with tie breaker not in our favor) and 3 up on Ball State and WMU (both with the tiebreaker in our favor).  Those two are unlikely to catch us.  You'd like to think 6th is our bottom.  OU is obviously a threat...and EMU will get to play CMU and NIU again, which can only help their chances.


Falcons Defeat Evil Rockets, Win 4th in a row

In front of their biggest crowd in seven seasons, and one that mostly consisted of their own fans, BG and UT played a very entertaining, competitive game that was made all the better by the fact that the Falcons Won and the Rockets Lost.  (66-63).

How's that taste, UT?

It was certainly an odd game--UT had been dreadful from beyond the arc but they got read hot--and BG had a historically bad night shooting FTs--but in the end, BG had a late run when they needed it and picked up the win.

To begin with, I thought the game environment was great.  The students were fantastic, and the big crowd really added energy and enjoyment to the game.  It was fun.  One of my concerns has been that whenever BG has seemed to get a decent crowd over the last few years we have lost, so let's hope that we can sustain this one and get some of those people back for our three remaining home games.  We'll have another sell out next year when MSU comes in....anyway, it was a great night to be a Falcon.

For much of the game, victory was far from assured for BG.  In the post-game, Coach likened the early minutes of a game like this to a sugar high--you come out with an energy burst but it fades quickly and you gotta keep going.  Eight minutes in BG was up 12-5, but then the game turned and the Rockets really took control of the game for about 18 minutes.  They were simply unconscious from 3, and they had been the worst in the MAC (in conference play) coming in.  At the same time, BG was having trouble getting anything to fall, and the Rockets closed the last 12 minutes of the first half on a 24-10 run.

They came out of the locker room with an old school 3 to go up by 10, and they had done what every road team wants to do...taken a big crowd out of the game.  They led by 10 most of the time until there were 14 minutes left in the half.

There was a lot of talk in the post-game presser about defenses.  BG was in their 2-3 zone (despite brave talk earlier in the year and a lot of time spent in the non-conference schedule in man, we are now playing mostly zone) and I wondered (along with many others) whether BG should come out of the zone and go to man, given the Rocket's hot 3-point shooting.  Coach said that he felt that BG was simply missing assignments and that he still felt the zone was the best...partly because BG was concerned about defending Rian Pearson in a man set.

As a personal aside, one of the things in basketball is that a lead built on unconscious shooting (and bad shooting on the other side) is a little bit like the mortgage crisis, and is generally unsustainable.  It was a reasonable bet that the Rockets could not keep that up.

What the Falcons did do defensively was go to full and 3/4 court pressure.  They had used it early, and then pulled it back, and then went back to it.  Also, BG has a nuisance pressure and a real pressure, and they switched to the real pressure, and I thought it made a difference.  BG forced some turnovers, and even when they didn't, UT's clock was often at 22 before they got into their set.  They only beat it once that I recall for an easy basket.  Scott Thomas is  incredibly effective in that set.  When you are looking at a cross court pass and he is lurking in the middle, it is very intimidating, because if you don't make the perfect pass, he will get it.

The game turned around so fast it was hard to believe.  In about 90 seconds BG went on a 10-3 run, including 3s by Scott Thomas and Dee Brown, and BG was down 3 with 13 left.  UT brooked that storm and continued to lead by a 5-6 margin until there were about 7 minutes left when Brown his another 3 to cut the lead to 2, and then Calhoun followed with a dunk to tie the game with 6:54 left.

Now, everyone in the arena is engaged, the place is electric...the teams responded by remaining tied at 52 from 6:54 to 4:03.  The game was also tied at 57 with 2:40 left.  Late in basketball games, sometimes a couple of plays set the tone and you can ride it out, and that's what happened.

First, BG ran a play for Scott Thomas to drive to the hoop.  You don't see that very often in our set, but he was on the dribble, hit the elbow and drove the lane.  According to Coach Orr, he kind of looked at Oglesby which froze the man on him and Calhoun's man had to stay on him and Thomas got to the rim for the old school 3...which he converted on a night where BG could not hit FTs.

Then, on the press, Crawford got a steal and came down under pressure and hit the layup and BG had a five point lead.  BG got a missed shot but UT came out of the scramble with the rebound and fed Curtis Dennis who drained yet another 3 and with 1:14 left it was a 2 point lead.

BG came down, ran the clock very deep before Crawford missed a shot, but Calhoun followed the offensive rebound with a huge tap in and BG was up 4 again with :37 left.  (Coach Hopson said after the game that it was the kind of play Calhoun should be making in "every game.")

At this point, BG just needs one stop to get the win, and they got it as a 3 fell off for UT and Oglesby got the board and got the ball to Brown, who was fouled.  Brown hit one of the 2 FTs and BG was now up 5 with :16 left.

Brown missed the second shot, but as Julius Brown was bringing the ball up for UT, Crawford picked his pocket and forced them to foul him again.  He split the free throws, and then UT came down and nailed a 3 to get it back to 3.  They fouled Scott Thomas, who missed both free throws, but with 2 seconds left, getting down floor off a rebound and without timeouts is almost impossible and the Falcons had the win.


If you like basketball, this was the kind of thing you like.

BG was led by outstanding games by both Scott Thomas and A'uston Calhoun.  Both made clutch plays and had just great games.  Thomas played 40 minutes, had 21 points on 9 of 14 shooting, with 6 rebounds--5 on offense--and 4 steals.  Kids, that's a stat line.  Calhoun had 20 points on 10 of 18 shooting, with 12 rebounds and 7 on the offensive glass.  Also a commanding night.

Dee Brown contributed 11 and 4 assists and while he didn't shoot well, he did have two clutch second half 3s.  Jordan Crawford struggled, especially in the first half, but ended up with 8 points and 4 steals...but 2 assists on 3 TOs.  BG played a very tight rotation.  Only Oglesby got more than 10 minutes off the bench and had 8 key rebounds.

In terms of team stats, it was a very weird game.  I've already mentioned UT's ridiculously hot shooting. You'd think if you had one team make 12 of 19 from 3 and their opponents go 6 of 20 from the FT line you 'd know which team won.  BG was fortunate to be able to force 18 turnovers and make only 11...and to get 50% of the available offensive rebounds, which created a huge number of second chance points and gave BG enough offensive firepower to win the game.


A couple of notes.  It was BG's worst FT effort since the Xavier game in the 09-10 season.  And it was the second best offensive rebounding night of the season for BG, second only to the Kent game.

And so, the Falcons win their 4th straight and their 4th straight over the Rockets.  It was a very satisfying victory.  The Rockets are on their way back...last year's team was non D-I quality, but there are now some players here and I suspect that the Rockets will be competitive next year...and in the West Division of the MAC, there are easy wins to be had.  UT is the second youngest team in the MAC and the only team without a senior.

The Falcons say good-bye to the MAC West and move back into the MAC East.  Wednesday's game is at a reeling OU team that BG beat at the Stroh.  It will be very interesting to see how that plays itself out...we are tied with OU in the standings and a win would put BG one up on them with the tie breaker.

To me, the key is Calhoun. He has now posted two strong games in a row.  We always knew he had this in him...if he continues to be a dominant presence inside, this team gets a lot harder to beat.

Beat the Rockets. Check.

More to come later today, but the Falcons did get the win Saturday in the Stroh in front of our biggest crowd at the Stroh and in the Orr era.  (The last time we drew more was 7 years ago when we played Toledo on the day after a huge snowstorm and BG was down big at halftime--even bigger than today--and rallied for the win.  Actually one of my big Anderson Arena memories).

Anyway, in addition to the big rivalry win, the best part was those masked Rumpus Dudes from UT heading over to our student section to dish out a little smack talk based on a half time lead.  They stood there like doofuses pointing at the scoreboard....only a Rocket fan talks smack when they are up at halftime.

Presumably they didn't do anything similar on the walk of shame to their car.

Great night to be a Falcon...more coming later.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Beat the Rockets

It might well be turning into the most anticipated game in the Orr era at Bowling Green.  Word on twitter from BGSU is that the game is nearing a sell-out, and while that will include some Rocket fans, it will also be the first real big-game atmosphere in the Stroh Center and in the Orr Era.  Our crowds have been tweaking up...we started at 1,500 and now we are up to 2,000....and it would be great to re-introduce our program to all those new fans by delivering a victory over our hated arch-rivals.

Over the past few years, UT is clearly at a low point for their program.  Having said that, I think they have some players now and are starting to point their way out of the swamp. They are the only West team with two wins over the East, winning @Miami and at home against OU, both of which the Falcons also did.  Overall, they are 3-7 in MAC play and that win over Miami is their only win on the road in the conference this year.

Yes, on paper, the Falcons should win this game.  BG has played well at home--though we are clearly not bullet-proof--and we are playing well and it will be a big crowd and things will be crazy and I think we're probably better right now than UT is...even so, you know, its the Rockets, and until you have driven a wooden stake into their heart, you don't let up.

UT will be jacked up for this game, too, and they are coming off their biggest win in conference in quite some time...and it is a rivalry game for them, too.  Nothing will soothe my nerves until the clock has nothing but zeros on it and BG has the most points.  Until then, the Rockets are an imminent threat.  The fight against evil never sleeps.  Code Orange.

The Rockets are lead by Rian Pearson, who is emerging very quickly as one of the MAC's top players.  He came with Kowalczyk from Green Bay.   In conference, he is averaging 19 points, first in the MAC.  Now, he is on a struggling team and is using 30% of their overall possessions (3rd in MAC, also taking 33% of all shots) to get those 19 points, so you have to balance how you view that.  His offensive rating is 34th, for example.  He's also 3rd in rebounding with 8 per game, and he's only 6'4".  Conclusion:  he's a good player, maybe not as good as he appears at first blush.

Curtis Dennis (New Mexico) is also scoring 11 points a game, but those are their only double figures scorers.  Julius Brown and Dominique Buckley both scored a lot against UT's very soft non-conference schedule, but have been struggling more in MAC play.

In other stats, Fr. PG Julius Brown has 4.9 assists per game over 4.2 turnovers.  Reese Holliday is 2nd on the team in rebounds.  Holliday is also their best 3 shooter, but he doesn't do it often...the guys who do it most often have not been effective.

Their turnover has been incredible.  Of the 8 players averaging more than 10 minutes per game, 5 were not on the team last year, and they are also the top 5 in minutes.

This team is a lot like Bowling Green on offense.  They do not shoot 3s.  In fact, they are last in making the 3 and 10th in trying them.  Accordingly, they lead the MAC in FG%, which is what you would expect when you shoot close to the basket.  Overall, they are 9th in offensive efficiency (.96 per possession) and 8th in EFG%.  They are 10th in getting to the line, 6th in turnover % and 6th in offensive rebounding.  To me, that adds up funny....you'd think a team with those numbers would be higher.  I guess it shows how hard it is to rack up points without some 3s in the mix.

On defense, they are 8th allow 1.03 ppp.  They are 10th in EFG% and 8th in allowing FTs.  They are good at forcing turnovers, second in the MAC, which probably accounts for how they get to 8th overall.  They are 10th in allowing offensive rebounding.


The fear...the fear is that the cross-over schedule indicates a team that plainly has talent is beginning to gel, and this is the wrong time to be playing them.  Now, whether that's what actually is happening or not, we will not know under later.  All I know is this...this UT team is going to get better than they are now, which is not very good.  At all.  Let's hope the Falcons (who could be gellin' too) keep them there one more game...play the way we should at home, and win a game we should.

MAC Blogger Roundtable...


Questions this week from Hustle Belt...

1. Right now it looks like Akron/Kent State/Buffalo/Ohio are the top four teams. Beyond them who looks the strongest (not necessarily who will have the best record) and seems like a MAC Tournament sleeper?

To me, the team with the best record is also the team that looks the strongest.  Akron appears to be the conference's best team.  The are winning and still have 4 home games left in the final 6.  They are incredibly balanced...I doubt if any other team in D1 has 7 players averaging between 7 and 10 points a game.  They are strong on both sides of the ball and Marshall is really coming into his own.  As for a sleeper, in a way it is Kent, but beyond that, I'd like to say my Falcons, but I need to see how they fare against the East first.  Teams like EMU can be tough to be in tournaments because they can always play tough D...on the other hand, BG is the only team in the East to fail to get 60 on them.

2. This is the first year MAC Tournament seeding is division agnostic. If it began today the East would have the first five (!) seeds. Can a team from the MAC West get a top-two seed and bye into the semifinals? If not, what's a realistic seed for the West winner?


No, probably not a top-2 bye but they have a shot at a top 4 bye.  The standings are distorted right now because those West teams have a huge advantage coming home in that they get to play each other.  EMU is 3 back of a top 2 bye and WMU is 4 back...don't see those flipping, but if EMU (or WMU) makes ground up, they could sneak in.  My expectation is that the West could end up with the #5 and #6 seeds just based on a much easier schedule.

3. Ernie Zeigler's team up in Central Michigan doesn't seem to be improving. Is he the most likely MAC coach to be fired after the season?


I would think so.  He has a pretty thin track record...yes, there are a couple of West Division titles in there, but that isn't worth very much.  They have never been in the Top 5 of the conference, and now are in the bottom 5.  They are young...but they also have the best recruit to come to the MAC in many years and they still can't produce.  The issue is, if Zeigler goes, what does Trey do?  Hard to see him staying in Mt. Pleasant.  I can't imagine any other MAC Coach getting the boot.

4. WMU coach Steve Hawkins gave two of his starters, Matt Stainbrook and Mike Douglas, one-game suspensions for key road games, Ohio and Kent State, respectively. They lost both games but barely. Let's play "Scruples." If you're coaching your favorite team and one of your key players broke team rules, would you have them sit out a big game?


I think you have to.  It isn't an easy thing to do, but I think when the players get the feeling that there isn't any control on them, they can make poorer decisions and it shows up in games.  Case in point, in my mind, is Tom Amstutz (which is another sport, I know).  Also, if you are going to suspend key guys, do it for a road game.  Is the scrupulous?

5. Jason Arkley of the Athens Messenger brought up a neat discussion on Twitter the other day. He talked about Ohio Bobcats players in recent memory who were not very liked by his own fans, D.J. Cooper being one of them. Who from your team did you consider unpopular during his playing days?


That's a really, really good question.  I have been wracking my brain trying to figure out who it might be...the best I came up with is Kevin Netter...Marc Larson...