Falcon Verbal #12

The season is here where the number of verbals picks up between now and the holiday dead period and then later in January.  BG clearly believes in waiting out guys, and we can expect to see some more come in, even if this is a smaller class than normal.

Mikhail Dubose is the most recent verbal.  He's a 3-star (ESPN) D-end from Hubbard HS in Chicago.  ESPN says they think he might project to an ILB in college.  They also says he needs to work on "secure wrap up" tackling so he will feel right at home in BG (HA! Just kidding).  He had offers from several MAC schools and Illinois (ahem, ahem) showed interest.

Here are some video highlights....there is actually some football about :30 in after the very dramatic open.

Welcome to the Falcons!!

Crusader Preview....

The Falcons travel to Vaparaiso Saturday to take on the Crusaders in a return visit from the Bracket Buster game played at Anderson Arena a couple of years ago.

There's one notable change for Valpo, which is that Dr. Homer Drew is no longer coaching the team after 21 years.  He has been replaced by his son Bryce, who, in addition to being a Drew, is the best player Valpo over had.  He was a first-round NBA draft pick and played six seasons in the league.  He's 37 years old.  (His brother coaches Baylor).

Valpo is off to a surprising 6-3 start.  Because they had heavy losses and a young team (they have only one senior getting serious minutes), they were picked to finish 5th in the Horizon league this year.  Now, that 6-3 might be a little bit over-stated, as they have 2 non-D1 wins among the 6.  On the other hand, they did beat Akron (with Abreu) and Duquesne (a team BG has struggled to compete with), both games at home.  They also won @Butler (though they are rebuilding).  Their losses are to Arizona, OSU, (both high quality opponents) and IPFW, a poor loss, though on the road.

On offense, they appear to play a style very much like Bowling Green's, in that they don't shoot a lot of 3s.  They are shooting almost 48% for the year overall, and that will be the first issue for the Falcons to deal with.  They don't rebound especially well on the offensive end, but they are in the top 10% of the teams in the country thus far in getting to the free throw line and converting.  At 1.06 points per possession, they are a pretty effective offensive team.  They are scoring 74 a game.  The turn the ball over only on 21% of their possessions.

Defensively, they are very good on the boards, ranking among the top teams in D1.  They are only allowing .96 points per possession.  Teams are shooting about 42% against them and 34% from beyond the arc.  They do not force a lot of turnovers (19%), so it appears they most play solid shooting defense with few second chances.  They do foul a lot.  They average 17 fouls a game and their opponents average 21.

College Basketball Stats

They have 4 regulars in double figures for scoring, two of them inside guys.  6'7" JR Ryan Broekoff  is scoring 14.8 points to go with 9 rebounds a game, and 6'8" Jr Kevin Van Wijk is scoring 14.2 points and 7 rebounds. They have 2 other regulars averaging 11 points, and one of those guys is 6'7".   So, while they are not tall per se, they have very effective long guys who are clearing scoring in the paint to be effective.

If you like tempo-free individual stats, all of those guys have offensive efficiency ratings over 100, or 1 point per possession.

This is a team BG beat two years ago at Anderson.  To win this one, the Falcons are going to have to play strong defense, which will mean both defending the shot and not fouling.  The Crusaders appear happy to take either one.  On offense, they are going to shoot better than they typically have been.  Valpo appears to be strong in the paint, so the Falcons may need to go inside-out to get the points they need.  Obviously, winning on the road is always tough and Valpo is 4-0 at home.  This is a good test for the Falcons, and a chance to mark the team's pre-MAC progress.  A win would be a quality win.

2011 Football Review: The Offense, big picture

Instead of big posts, we're going to review the football season for the Falcons in little nuggets over the course of the next few weeks, when there are openings in the basketball posts.

We will review offense, defense, and special teams.  The main question we will ask with each one is this:  was BG better than in 2010 and how much?



With that in mind, we start with the offense.  Before looking at the components, we will first look at the big picture.  A reminder--we are looking at stats for conference games only in 2010 and 2011.  I feel it provides a much more stable basis of comparison.

In 2010, BG was 11th in the MAC in scoring at 17.9 points per game.  That number did improve significantly, up to 23.9 points per game, a 33% increase.  However, and this is a key point, we have already seen that the MAC's scoring also improved over the whole year, so you had to get better just to stay even with the competition.  BG's improvement in offense only moved them from 11th to a tie for 10th.

We all know (and we will see) that BG had issues with turnovers and that impacts scoring.  However, it was not the only issue involved.

When looking at yards per play, BG was tied for 12th at 4.0 yards per play in 2010.  This year, BG took a major jump, getting to 5.4 yards per play, a 35% increase.  Again, that is significant.  However, while better, it still only placed BG in a tie for 9th in the MAC in yards per play.

Simply put, the team improved on its overall offense last year, however, lacked production and further hurt itself with turnovers, all of which led to an improved but still sub par effort.

Happy Holiday from the Falcons....

Jingle Bells as sung by 5 Falcon football players...never to be mistaken for America's next boy band.  That's Bayer, Gates, Martin, Swan and Samuel...

Falcon Great's Daughter Progresses in Punt, Pass and Kick

Hannah White, the daughter of one of the all-time Falcon greats, Erik White, is a big star in Punt, Pass and Kick.  She is ranked 3rd in Ohio and was introduced at halftime of a recent Browns game.  Way to keep the Falcon tradition going, Hannah!

Falcons do the expected, crush Malone

The Falcons brought in their one annual guaranteed-win cupcake last night--the Malone Pioneers--and for the Falcons it was a welcome respite from being the cupcake (see upcoming MSU game) to devouring the cupcake.

I lived in Ohio for more than 30 years.  I had never heard of Malone College (or University) until they popped up on our schedule.

They are climbing the ladder of college athletics, moving from the NAIA to DII competition.  They are joining the GLIAC along with a couple of other upwardly mobile schools.  Who knew that conference alignment was hitting the DII level as well?

Obviously, they are up against it when they face a D1 team, of course on the road, and in this case, from a team that plays in the MAC, which is in the upper end of above the red line territory.

Things went even worse for Malone when their second leading scorer was injured early in the game and did not return.

Malone played tough through much of the first half, and I thought they ran some pretty good offense on us and just couldn't get the shots to fall.  With 7:00 left in the first they were only down 7 (29-22), but BG went 12-2 into the locker room to lead by at at the half and then went on a 13-4 run to start the second half, which put the lead at 28.

From there, the rout was on, and BG ended up doing what they were supposed to do, which is win 87-44.  The Falcons shot 64% for the night and Malone shot 24% and only 22% in the second half.

BG got everyone in the game and everyone scored, even the two walk-ons.

The biggest individual story was A'uston Calhoun, who set a school record by making all nine of his field goal attempts on the way to 20 points, all in the first half.  The previous record was 8-8, by two different players.  Calhoun had dunks on three of BG's first four possessions.

It was the biggest win for the Falcons since 1999, when they beat Urbana by 62.  That, incidentally, was the first game I ever took my son to.  He was three then and sat beside me tonight at the age of 15.

Cam Black had 11 and Torian Oglesby 10...notice a trend here?  The Falcon bigs were the leading scorers, because they had a huge size advantage over Malone to start with, and it only got bigger when one of their posts left the game early.

Of BG's 87 points, 58 of them came in the paint.

BG also had 25 assists, their most since defeating Towson State in 2008.

So, having dispatched the win on the schedule, the Falcons now face serious challenges.  They do not play at home for one full month, when the MAC schedule starts.  They will play @Valpo, @MSU, @Florida INT, @Duquesne, and @Texas San Antonio.  On the face of it, two wins would be an accomplishment and three would be great.  If will be a trying stretch, but the Falcons are going to have to learn to score the ball on the road, and this looks like as good a time as any.

Humility Part II....MAC Predictions

So, let's look back on how I thought the MAC would roll out this year....this is an annual exercise in humility....and no less so this year.  Anyway, nothing ventured, nothing gained...and you can't accuse me of picking chalk.

Below are my picks and comments.  Actual pick, along with commentary, is included in red.  I did get 6 of the 13 teams right.


West

I start with the West because I did better.

1.  NIU (Actual finish 1st)

The case:  I really like NIU.  They had a ridiculous offensive juggernaut last year and bring huge amounts of offensive talent back, including the MAC's best QB and a very solid line.  Even if the defense is weaker, they can score enough to win.  They had the best defense in the MAC last year---they didn't need it.  After last year's disappointment, they get the job done this year.

Why not #1:  Well, they have a new Coach, no one knows how that will click.  Also, they will not be as solid on defense.  They have to replace more starters than any other team in the MAC.

(December comment:  How you like me now?)

2.  UT (Actual 2nd)

The case:  They were the media's choice as well as Phil Steele's.  Beckman has very quickly assembled a very good football team up there.  Steele says their schedule is slightly better than NIU's and they have 18 starters back.  They play NIU at the Glass Bowl.  I'm picking NIU, but this one is very close.

Why not #1:  They might be strong, but they are not as good as NIU.  They are solid and deep at QB, but Harnish is better and while they didn't lose a lot of players, they did lose some key defensive players.

(That's 2-2.).

3.  WMU (Actual 3rd)

The case:  Steele actually has them as co-favorite with UT and says they will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have a very strong QB and return the MAC's top WR.  They have the best special teams in the West, and they were 5-3 in the MAC last year.

Why not #1:  Steele is pinning a lot of hope on Tevin Drake at RB and I'm not sure he's shown enough to put that kind of weight on his shoulders.  Their defense isn't that strong, and they play UT and NIU on the road.  Also, Cubit seems to have a history of underachieving and I have yet to be convinced he is a complete coach.

(Another missile hits the target.  Feel free to stop reading now.  3-3)

4.  CMU (Actual 6)

The case:  CMU fans were ready to part company with Dan Enos after only one year, but I think you'll see him turn things around.  They have to be better---and they have a strong QB and WR and....well, Miami did it.

Why not?:  The Chips will be better, but their defense will limit their upside--especially when they have to face the offenses in the West.  Their O-line could struggle too.

(The fall of this program is pretty surprising.  I thought it was a one-year adjustment, but clearly, the issues ran deeper).

5. BSU (4th)

The case:  They could finish ahead of CMU...I don't see a higher run.  They have a new coach, and he might be able to harness the team's underperformance from the Parrish years and make a run.

Why not?:  Just too far to climb in this division.

(BSU surprised me this year.  I thought they would be better, but not as good as they were).

6. EMU (5th)

The case:  They have to compete eventually.  Right?  They have Ron English and Mike Hart coaching....someday, things have to turn around.  Miami did it.

Why not?:  Someday EMU will be competitive.  Honestly.

(I was surprised that EMU was as good as they were.  Now, they were the only team in the MAC with 2 FCS wins and they had only 1 quality win.  I'm not a big fan).


East

There are 4 very evenly matched teams in the East.   Below, I will examine each of them...make the case for them winning, and then saying why I am or am not picking them.

1.  Kent (3rd)

The case:  Kent was never as far behind as they looked, lost a lot of close games and they return a very strong team up front.  Their new coach will take an underachieving team and have immediate results, almost in the Urban Meyer vein.

(A big finish moves this pick from humiliating to embarrassing).

2.  Temple (2nd)

The case:  Despite big graduation losses, Al Golden left lots of talent which I think Steve Addazio will know how to use.  They are set even if Pierce is not healthy, and Mike Gerardi is underrated at QB.

Why not #1:  Temple lost a lot of defensive stars from the conference's second best defense, and the fall off is enough to cost them the title.  However, they end the season with Kent at the Linc.

(Fourth team picked correctly.  Wrong about Gerardi, and their defense did bring more back than people thought.)

3.  Miami (5th)

The case:  They were the media's pick (really--I was closer than they were).  They have the best QB in the East (they actually do not) and a very strong defense.  They have 17 guys back from last year's title team.  They have a new coach, and a guy who will be a good one, and you just start to think they have the ability to do it again.

Why not #1:  They had a huge turnover advantage last year and won a bunch of close games, something that Phil Steele will tell you is difficult to replicate.  They don't look to be able to run the ball very well, and they have a relatively tough schedule, especially in cross-over land.

(See the Why not section from above.)

4.  Ohio U. (1st)

The case:  Phil Steele not only picks them #1 but says they will finish #34 in the country based on the easiest schedule in the MAC.  They got the most 1st place picks in the MAC media poll, but still finished 3rd, which means that at least some people agree with me...this team is overrated.  Anyway, the case for them is that they were 8-5 last year and their games against last year's weak East teams are the same games everyone else plays.

Why not #1:  They are breaking in a new QB, have major defensive issues and don't have the offense to outpace a weak defense.  While their O-line might look good, they have a very low number of accumulated starts among them.  Also, in the MAC, just because teams were poor last year does not mean they will be this year.

(Tettleton really performed as a new QB and the offense was really strong.  Also, their line just moves guys up so even if they don't have starts, they have been in the program and are strong.  Solich doing a really solid job).

5. BG (4th)

The case:  Miami did it.

Why not #1:  While I expect BG to be improved this year and think the program is on the track to success, this year is going to be tough.  BG has a very difficult cross-over schedule, and even though the defense will be stronger, it will still be very young and the O-line is very unsettled--should be better, but I don't know how high the ceiling is.  If everything breaks right, this could change, but I don't think this is the year for BG to challenge for the title.

(Pretty good analysis, IMO)

6.  Buffalo (6th)

The case:  Miami did it.

Why not #1:  I think Quinn will do well in Buffalo, but they are similar to BG...weak on the O-line, weak in the defensive secondary, and not enough horses to compete this year.

(Right on, #5).  Also, did not see their offensive struggles coming.

7.  Akron (7th)

The case:  Not applicable.

Why not #1: Akron lost a lot of players from a bad team...making them young and weak.  They have a long way to go to be competitive, even in the East.

(Right on #6, though this was a gimmee).


Championship....The West champion should be the favorite and since I have NIU, I like them to win the Title.  They should have won last year and they make it up this year.  (Correct).

Going to Bowls....

Kent (Wrong)
NIU (Right)
UT (Right)
WMU (Right)
Temple (Right)