You saw Bull Run's responses to my questions--here, are my responses to his "inquisition" which was, indeed, like fetching the comfy pillow.
There have been a wide range of bizarre occurrences in games between our teams, including the Great Dan Dakich Locker Room Debacle, followed by the ritual Dan Dakich apology to the league and world, and the great Gregg Brandon collapse/crowd chastisement incident.
The MAC seasons starts tomorrow with the BG-Buffalo game from Alumni Hall/Arena in Buffalo. We'll do a preview in 2 parts, starting with a blogswap with our peer, Bull Run. I asked him five questions and he asked me five questions. Here are his responses to what I asked.
1) Your team is 8-4 but has played a relatively soft schedule, with your best win being at home against Green Bay. How confident do you feel that you really know what you've got?
I feel pretty good considering UB was supposed to be a MAC doormat. The BYU game was the difference maker for me. UB was right in that game until the last few minutes. The Bulls really don't have a game that they have not been in and could easily be 11-1 if they shot free throws a bit better.
2) We emailed about this, but talk about the decision to redshirt Mulkey after his junior year, a pretty unconventional move.
Spoon was playing chess when we all were thinking about Checkers. That move, more than any in his career, defines him as a forward thinking *program* coach. While maybe Mulkey might have made a difference last season I don't think Buffalo gets past the quarterfinals with him, he may not even have been a starter.
This season Mulkey is the key to UB getting 15 or more wins. Yea McCrea is blowing the doors off of fans and Fitzen is, so far, shooting lights out from three. But we have one of the best Guards in the conference, that will make a difference as the season wears on.
3) Given the youth of your team, are you surprised at the success so far?
Very. I saw UB as a ten win team this year. Even with the soft schedule UB's age and Spoon's tenancy to rely on the bench had all the makings of a very bad season.
4) Tell us about Javon McCrea. In the MAC teleconference today, Coach Witherspoon alluded to the idea that people thought he couldn't play at this level. What is up with that, and what have you seen from him?
Apparenty he had a rather lack luster summer session last year so a lot of people were writing him off. At one point he held offers from Georgetown and UMass so while his summer play may have given some pause there were some folks who saw the potential. The other reason, as given by coach Spoon, is that Javon is pretty young (just tuned 18).
The thing that has really impressed me about Javon is his focus. There is almost no situation in which he has not played consistently well. McCrea is 2nd in the NCAA for field goal shooting percentage 68.9.
5) What's Buffalo's game plan to beat the Falcons?
Spoons offense has not changed much its just got a little more push to the basket than it did last season. There is still going to be alot of ball movement. Unfortunately that tends to play into the Falcons hands, the zone employed by Bowling Green has given the Bulls fits over the years (thinking back to 08-09 when we would have won the regular season MACC if we could have solved it.
Fitzen will try to force the issue on the outside, he has been shooting well and might force you to give a little underneath.
What might kill us is turnovers, not the tasty kind I had for breakfast but the kind that UB has been giving away at a rate of nearly 20 a game.
So, moving on. When we evaluate passing games, we have a tendency just to look at gross numbers. Oh, that team must be good at protecting the QB because they don't allow sacks. Similarly, that team is good at avoiding INTs.
I'd like to propose that sometimes that's because they don't pass very much. If you pass a lot, these things are going to occasionally happen.
Also, I'm interested in knowing what the benchmarks are--what is a low, typical, and high percentage of passes, sacks, and combined sacks/passes in the MAC.
Let's take a look.
First, the details.
These are sack-adjusted passing stats, which means sacks and yardage have been moved from running to passing.
They are conference games only.
OK, let's start with interceptions. As you can see, the average for the MAC was just under 4%, meaning that 1 in about 25 passes was intercepted. Kent was very good, and WMU was very good given that I perceive they played a much more vertical and therefore risky passing attack than most teams do. Meanwhile, on the bottom end, you can see some of the MAC's worst teams, and OU, who managed to thrive for other reasons.
Bowling Green was almost exactly on the league average.
So, each year, I take a look at how the MAC did against its non-conference opponents in hoops. In general, I have been disappointed about the performance of MAC basketball for the past few years. Understanding that the bracket buster is still ahead, I wanted to compare the MAC's D1 out of conference winning % this year pre-BB with the past two years.
The MAC has won 40% of its non-conference D1 games this year. That is not as good as last year, when the MAC won 44% and better than the year before that, when the MAC won 37.5%. Of course, there is always the disclaimer that the MAC often plays these games on the road, and the 40% needs to be considered with that in mind.
Based on the current RPI, the MAC is now 16th...last year #15 and the year before that #19.
Other notes:
In advance of Saturday's MAC opener, we look ahead to a Buffalo team that is very surprising. They beat Cornell last night (no surprise there) and there is a look at them as they enter conference play from their local paper (written before Cornell win).
University at Buffalo: Bulls (8-4) have become the most intriguing Big 4 team thanks to Byron Mulkey's solid play at the point and the instant emergence of freshman forward Javon McCrea. Offensive flow has never been better during Reggie Witherspoon's tenure. They have joined Akron, Kent State, Ohio, Ball State and Western Michigan as legit title contenders in the wide-open Mid-American Conference. Just the Bulls' luck that this is the year they get road crossovers against Ball State and WMU, making it a tougher road to a first-round bye. They won at Cornell on Monday night, 78-66, and open MAC play at 7 Saturday against visiting Bowling Green.
So, Coach Orr did his presser yesterday, and I'd say it was pretty much news free. Then again, when you win 4 out of 5, maybe there is less to talk about. Anyway. Not surprisingly, whereas most fans would say that our biggest improvement is on offense (and it can't be debated, the last 5 games are our best of the year), Coach Orr would prefer to talk about the improvement on defense, especially in the last two games.
The chart below, used properly, can look like something other than a mis-wired Telephone. For example, looking at the blue line, which is FG% defense, and starting, say, on 12/18, you can see a clear downward trend. Similarly, if you look at the green line, which is offensive rebounds allowed, you can see a more general downward trend starting 12/4. Finally we have been fouling more as our defense has gotten more aggressive, but we have maintained a consistent level of turnover %.
The Falcons have a new football verbal. It is Brian Sutton of Fishers High School, which is near Indianapolis. He's a D-back who has played corner and safety in high school. He had a pretty good senior season on a State Title team:
Sutton helped lead the Tigers to Class 5A state title in November. He had 82 solo tackles, 28 assists, 12 pass breakups, two forced fumbles and two interceptions.
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