What is their body of work?
They are having a respectable year, especially given their injuries at QB (a former BG Coach would have written the whole season off--and once did--after an injury to a star QB).
What is their best result?
Their win over Colorado.
What is their worst result?
Losing to Miami.
What is their turnover ratio?
They are -6, which is 11th in the conference.
Offense:
How is their QB Play?
Austin Dantin is supposed to get the start, but pretty much anything can happen for the Rockets at QB. Dantin has been very effective this year, although it would appear from the numbers they go downfield less than they did with Opelt, who has had big injury issues this year. Media reports also say that David Pasquale will also take some snaps, he appears to be a run-threat QB.
What was their scoring and yards per play?
They are 4th in scoring offense in the MAC (BG is 5th) and lead the MAC with 6.2 yards per play.
Can they run the ball?
They have a very strong run attack. DeJuan Collins is close to having 1,000 yards and Morgan Williams is very effective as well, but was suspended part of the year. They both lit up EMU, with is last in the league in rush defense, but BG is 12th. They are both averaging over 5.7 yards per carry and the Rockets are 2nd in the MAC in yards per carry.
Do they pass the ball?
A true dual-threat team, they are third in the MAC in passing with the 2nd highest yards per attempt average. You can't talk about their passing attack without recognizing Eric Page and Stephen Williams, both of whom are outstanding receivers.
How is their run/pass balance?
See above.
Do they convert on 3rd Down.
They are 6th in the MAC at about 40% which is pretty average given the yards per play numbers we have seen above. Not that it is bad, just that you'd expect it to be through the roof.
Do they score in the red zone?
4.3 points per trip is pretty good. They are the only team in the MAC not to have missed a RZ FG. They have created only 38 red zone trips, which is pretty low for a team with their offensive power. I suspect this is the result of scoring on big plays.
Do they protect the quarterback?
Toledo always has good line play, and they have allowed only 17 sacks, with is 4th in the MAC.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
They are 12th is scoring defense and tied for 10th in yards per play allowed.
Do they defend the run effectively?
Not especially, they are tied for 10th in yards per carry allowed. Their per game average is better, partly because teams throw so much on them.
Could they be passed on?
They are dead last in passing yards allowed, although 8th in pass efficiency defense. Both WMU and CMU lit them up, which impacts their numbers. Their 12 INTs is 4th in the MAC.
Did they get off the field on 3rd down?
This is not a strong point. They allow 46% conversion, which is 11th in the conference.
Do they defend in the red zone?
They are the worst in the conference in red zone D. They have allowed the most red zone trips, the highest percentage of scores, and their average of almost 5 points per red zone trip is really poor. BG has not been strong in the red zone, but that will clearly need to change Friday.
Do they pressure the QB?
They have 20 sacks, which is 4th in the MAC.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are 12th in net punting. They have had 3 punts blocked.
Punt Return?
They are 6th in punt returns, with no TDs this season. Page returns their punts, however, and is dangerous every time.
Placekicking?
Alex Steigerwald is 11-15, but that is deceiving. He has missed 2 over 50, is flawless inside 40 yards and has kicked 5 FGs over 40 yards with a 50 yarder in there. He is a very effective kicker.
Kickoff?
They average a 40 yard net, which is very typical in the MAC.
Kickoff Return?
Their return average is also right around a 40 yard net, so that's pretty typical.
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
Here is where is gets interesting.
First, and perhaps most importantly, BG has beaten UT handily the last two seasons. Historically in this rivalry, that has been unusual, especially because BG was not a dominant team either of those two years.
You gotta think UT has been pointing to this for a while.
This game could come down to who can get even minimal stops on defense. There could be more scoring than in the BG-UT basketball game last season.
For BG, the plus side has to be that both CMU and WMU hung 50 points + on the Rockets. If BG can do the same, you have to like their chances.
On the contrary, BG's run defense will need to have some kind of success without crowding the box. In other words, man for man, BG will have to find a way to at least slow down the UT attack.
Both teams have to feel this is a good match up for them. It certainly lines up as a very exciting game. In the end, it is my hope that BG, playing confidently and improving each week, will bring its best game of the season and win the game, but the Rockets are a very dangerous team and very capable of winning this game.
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