CBSSports.com Blog Poll Draft

If you think you can do better, hit the comments....I'm not really sure how LSU lost and went up one, but I am sure they are having a better season than Iowa and Oregon and USC to date.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	2
2	Florida
3	Texas	2
4	Boise State
5	Cincinnati	3
6	TCU	1
7	Georgia Tech	3
8	LSU	1
9	Iowa	2
10	Oregon	4
11	Southern Cal	1
12	Houston	2
13	Utah	3
14	Pittsburgh	6
15	Miami (Florida)	4
16	Ohio State	3
17	Arizona	6
18	Oklahoma State	3
19	Wisconsin	2
20	Oregon State	5
21	Penn State	8
22	South Florida
23	Virginia Tech	1
24	Stanford
25	California	8
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Brigham Young (#18).

Experience and MAC Men's Hoops

When you look ahead at the season, one thing is really remarkable:  Akron won last year with a really young team.

Because we don't get players who are one and done (or three and done) very often, MAC hoops tends to be very senior dominated.  A team with productive seniors will win its share of games.

This observation is bolstered by recent developments out of BG:

The last two times we have seriously challenged for or won a division title were last year (Miller, Clements, Moten) and the Reimold-Almanson year.

Conversely, our Dark Years of Infinite Frustration were when no one stayed long enough to become a senior.

With that in mind, a couple of fact nuggets for you.  First, let's look at how much scoring and rebounding each team lost since last year.  (Note this counts transfers....especially hard hit was CMU).

A few thoughts here.  The Rockets were awful AND they lost a lot.  BG and Miami at least had something to show for their senior domination.  OU was hit a little harder on the rebounding side.  And look at Akron down there, bringing tons back from a really good team.

I'm telling you, Keith Dambrot is going to build himself a new job soon.

Now, I am a big fan of statsheet.com.  This guy has excellent data on college hoops, and he is fully on board with the latest ways of looking at the game---notably tempo-free stats and the four key factors to winning.

Below is a little analysis he did of last year's MAC season, looking at winning percentage against average class per minute (ie, if you played only seniors, you would be a 4).  There are certainly some odd data points, but look at the four teams on the far right of the chart to get an idea what I am talking about.

NCAA Basketball Stats

New Football Verbal

The Falcons have reportedly nabbed their 16th verbal, O-lineman Cody Silk out of Warren DeSalle High School in Michigan.  Hat tip to AZZ.com for the lead on this one.

There is not a ton of information out there on Cody.  He was all-County last season, is known as a "workout warrior" by his coach, and only allowed one sack.  Normally reliable AZZ.com posters say he is an excellent athlete.  At 6'4" he has some nice height, and they'll add pounds to the 265-275 during his redshirt year.

You know how I feel about highlight videos, but I am still gonna post this one...

He is our third offensive lineman in this class.  I'm not sure what exactly that signifies in terms of sheer numbers and priority, except to say that if you recruited 3 contributing O-lineman every season you'd be in pretty good shape.

Welcome to the Falcons, Cody.

Falcon Basketball Preview--Two Perspectives

We're going to take a quick break from football, since the team does not play again until Thursday.  I enjoy basketball season every bit as much as I do football season, and I find both sports fascinating and very compelling.

With that in mind, let me take a quick preview of the Falcons for this year....starting with the conventional wisdom.  Because there is a very easy way to preview this team, one that seems obvious, is difficult to argue with, and might very well be right.

That convention view is that this will be a rebuilding year.  BG lost 59.55% of its scoring (3rd most in the MAC) and 45.5% of its rebounding (4th most in the MAC).  Beyond numbers, the player that carried the team home (Nate Miller) is gone.  A talented but inconsistent underclassmen (Chris Knight) left, and promising transfer Adrion Graves left without ever dressing for a game.  On paper, this team will not have a scorer.

You know, I'm a little contrarian.  I will concede that the conventional view could easily happen...and might be most likely.  However, there is another set of things could happen.  I sense a confidence in the BG camp that is not warranted by the available facts.  Let's see if we can figure out why.

The link above takes you to a preview in BG's media guide.  This things always tend to the optimistic, but I think that this one is pretty revealing.

Two things from a team perspective.  First, Coach mentions that this pre-season has been freer of distractions, which is good.  (Remember, last year started with suspensions to three key players).  Second, he talks about the team's defense (which was good but not great on the whole last year, but very tough coming home) and says that he hopes we will be able to play more man-to-man this year, which promises some strategic  diversity and seems to indicate an even stronger unit.

Now, let's look at what a rotation might look like for Bowling Green.

Up front, you have Otis Polk and Marc Larson coming back.  Polk has lost weight in an effort to stay on the floor more, and if he can do that (he will need to reduce fouls too) he has the ability to be a force on the defensive end of the floor and on the offensive boards.  If he can develop any kind of touch on his "zero footers" he can score, too.

Getting Marc Larson back is a key, too.  Although he doesn't do things that show up in the box score, he is very much a contributing player on the defensive side (especially on help side) and is a reliable passer and screener on offense.

Obviously, Nate Miller graduated.  I would anticipate that Scott Thomas will fill his spot.  Thomas played sparingly last year (as a freshman) but showed some real potential.  He's long, a ball player, a good shooter and fearless.  Needless to say, we need him to produce from this spot.

There is depth up front, as well.  Erik Marschall can hopefully provide more minutes than he did last season, and even if his legs won't carry him to starting minutes, he is very talented with the ball and can be a dangerous inside scorer.  And, A'uston Calhoun, who red-shirted last year, is alleged to be a very good athlete who is maturing.  In the right role, could he replace the numbers Knight had--if not the occasional flashes of raw brilliance?

So, that's five players in our rotation.

In the backcourt, we return Joe Jakubowski.  As Coach says in the preview "It's his time."  And it is.  This team needs him to produce, on both ends of the floor.  Also, (my opinion now), he needs to take his game from one of managing the offense to creating opportunities for other players. He is as good a PG as we have had since Brandon Pardon, and as a junior, this team needs him to create scoring opportunities and (we hope) some transition baskets.

The other spot (the Moten/Clements spot) looks like it will be occupied by Darren Goins.  This will be interesting.  On paper, Goins had a couple of seasons at San Jose State that did not reveal the level of athleticism and ability that our coaches apparently see.  Doesn't mean it isn't there, just an observation.  Coach talks about him being a great athlete who will be able to get to the rim--something Miller did for us so well.  His contribution is vital.

Finally, at Guard, we also have Dee Brown back.  I thought Brown showed some promise at times last year....I'd say the Nation is a little skeptical, but Coach says he improved a great deal over the summer.  He figures to be in our rotation as the third guard.

That gives us an eight-man rotation, without a single true freshman getting in.  Any contribution from them, even in limited roles, would be a bonus.

There are lots of ifs in the scenario above.  I don't think any of them are impossible, or even hard to believe, but maybe collectively they all are.  I do believe that this team can exceed above the expectations conventional wisdom sets and gain a bye to the Q.

I'm sure of this.  There is plenty of interesting things for fans to watch as the season develops, and I like the direction we are headed in.

Permutations, Part II

Team	Record
Temple	5-0	@Akron, Kent, @OU
Kent	4-1	@Akron, @Temple, Buffalo
Ohio U	4-1	@Buffalo, NIU, Temple
Bowling Green	3-2	@Miami, Akron, UT
Buffalo	1-4	OU, @Miami, @Kent
Miami	1-5	Buffalo, @Akron, @Kent
Akron	0-4		Kent,Temple, @BG, EMU

MAC Roundtable for this week is on the air.....

Excellent week for answers, which are detailed below.  Bull Run is out this week because of an ill-advised trip during football season and RAB Attack is still rapturing in last night's televised whup-ass over the EMUs.  Here is what we have.

1.  Now that we have reached November, what do you really think of this no-Saturday stuff? Is it a necessary evil, an unnecessary evil, or a non-issue? Do you think that the difficulty for home fans outweighs the long-term benefit of being on ESPN?

I thought we had a pretty good discussion on this one, with the consensus falling on the idea that there are lots of downsides but upsides as well.

Let's Go Rocket reminded us that...

On one hand, a weeknight game means that fans will be able to attend their MAC game without missing other popular games on tv.

Over the Pylon reminds us that the players are student athletes

The student athlete portion of the picture should be the most important one but has probably slipped to the bottom of the list. No one seems to talk about the impact to their academics and daily routines, but that may simply be a result of "student athletes" dropping the importance of the "student" piece of that identifier years ago, long before weekday MAC games were even around.

Temple Forever think it is especially odd when two teams play on a weekday and they AREN'T on TV (and he sent that before last night's thrilling un-televised Temple-Miami thriller)

I think the only non-Saturday games on should be guaranteed TV games. No more having multiple conference teams playing on the same weeknight, only to get one of the teams on TV.

Fire up Chips provided the thread's LOL moment...

And I don't see why MAC fans would have a problem with it, they don't go to the games anyways. I mean, If a criminal wanted to do a giant drug deal -- go some place where nobody would see them -- they should go to an Eastern Michigan home game.

And Rasor is probably the most negative on the ESPN deal...

Being on ESPNU doesn't do it for me. It diminishes the quality of MAC football to say we're willing to play Tuesday morning during breakfast so a handful of football fanatics get to watch live football in an unusual timeslot.

2.  As we hit the home stretch, who are your early leaders for MAC Offensive and Defensive players of the year? Coach of the Year?

On offense, LeFevour was clearly our consensus pick, with Sheehan, Barnes and Bernard Pierce getting some mentions.

Over the Pylon feels that LeFevour is kind of an obvious, casual fan kinda pick.

Defense:

This is always tougher, because you could have some beat d-lineman eating up blocks but he doesn't get numbers.  I'd say the high profile picks for us are Barry Church and Adrian Robinson, with Davonte Shannon and Nick Bellore being a little more out of the mainstream.

Coach:

Give Al Golden his hardware already.

3.  Bernard Pierce is making a huge impact as a freshmen at Temple. What freshmen are making an impact or showing promise at your program?

Let's Go Rockets:  Eric Page (duh!)
FalconBlog:  No big contributors, Dwayne Woods and Tim Moore getting reps
Over the Pylon:  Eric Williams
Temple:  (Pierce was in the proposition) their kicker McManus
Fire Up Chips:  No one major, DE Caesar Rodriguez is a guy to watch.
Rasor on Zips:  Brian Wagner, who arguably is having as good a season on defense as Pierce is on offense.

4.  Think back on your time as a fan.....what is the single most exciting or thrilling moment you recall witnessing for your team.....I'm thinking in person, but certainly not a requirement.

I was really happy with the results of this question.  It is awesome to go back and think about those games that were the magic we expect as fans.  For that reason, I am going to run everyone's answer....

Let's Go Rockets:

Certainly, our fondest memory of the Toledo football program is from 2003, when Toledo upset (then) #9 Pittsburgh in the Glass Bowl. The game, start to finish was thrilling, and the electricity in the Glass Bowl in the second half was paupable when everyone realized that we might just pull this off. As the clock wound down, the place erupted. We never step foot in the Glass Bowl without thinking about that night.

Over the Pylon:

Hands down the Toledo game in 2001. Homecoming. Ranked opponent. Game-winning kick return for the go ahead touchdown. Handing Toledo its first loss of the season. An unbelievable weekend and an unbelievable game. Close second was last year's Western Michigan contest. It was simply incredible to see the crowd, the students, and cap off a regular season at 12-0. Unreal.

Temple Football Forever

Absolutely beating California in the Garden State Bowl before 55,000 Temple fans at the Meadowlands. Cal traveled maybe 100 people. All the other fans were Temple fans. A huge homefield advantage in a bowl game.

Fire Up Chips

Western Michigan is amazing in 2000 (ranked #27 in the country) and CMU has esentially a flag football team. However, CMU wins at home in what I consider the BEST upset in CMU history.

Chilling in the press box at CMU's HUGE upset over MSU was great as well.

Rasor on the Zips;

This is easy. I was in the front row in Detroit at Ford Field on Dec. 1, 2005. Luke Getsy found Domenik Hixon on a deep post route with under a minute to play. The touchdown gave the Zips their first MAC Championship. We were going absolutely berserk, hugging complete strangers. That was a great time to be a Zips football fan. That's the point when I decided I would never sit in the press box during a football game if I can help it. You can't enjoy a moment like that without high-fives, clapping, shouting, chest-bumping, etc.

Falcon Blog:

The most exciting Falcon game I remember was my senior year in college, the Fall of 1985. We played Miami, and Brian McClure was injured. An undefeated season was on the line. Miami had a huge lead, but the Falcons rallied back with the help of an unused backup QB, TWO onside kick recoveries, a 25 yard scamper by said backup QB, and then a goal line stand. It remains the most exciting sporting event I have ever seen.

5.  Power Poll 


A few notes.

• CMU, Temple and EMU were unanimous.
• Rasor has OU 8th
• Most of these results were cast before Miami nearly upset Temple last night.

1. CMU
2. Temple
3. OU
4. NIU
5. Kent
6. WMU
7. BGSU
8. Toledo
9. Buffalo
10. Ball State
11. Akron'
12. Miami
13. EMU

The International Centre for Special Teams Research

Welcome back to the latest edition of the International Centre for Special Teams Research.  If you want to see how all this started, you can read the originating post here, but here is the basic idea: it isn't the small yardage differences that you are really worried about.

If you typically have 35 net yards on a punt, you don't really care if it is 31 or 39. What matters is when it is 20 or 50, or when a game changing  (or influencing) play (touchdown, turnover, block) occurs. I established a broad range of typical results.  These are worth no points because they are what you expect a MAC team to do.  Positive plays are worth points (from 1 to 6) and negative plays are worth negative points (-1 to -6).

It was our beset special teams game since the Missouri game, and in terms of positive plays, it was our best game.  BG had two blocked punts, which were essential to the Falcons winning the game.  At the same time, BG had an roughing the kicker penalty and a fumbled punt, which balances out the positive plays.  However, some key kickoff and punt plays were enough to give BG a +13 for the game.

So, let's take a look at the particulars

Bowling Green Positive (+13)

UB Kickoff returned to BG 42 (+1)

BG punt inside Buffalo 20 (+1)

BG blocked punt (+3)

BG Kick off touchback (+1)

BG kickoff returned to UB 19 (+1)

UB Kickoff returned to BG 37 (+1)

BG punt inside UB 20 (+1)

BG blocked punt (+3)

BG Kickoff returned to UB 15 (+1)

Bowling Green Negative (-9)

BG Roughing the kicker (-3)

UB Kickoff returned to BG 18 (-1)

BG misses XP (-1)

BG punt 18 yard net (-1)

BG Punt fumbled and lost (-3)

Bowling Green Neutral

BG Kickoff returned to UB 20

BG XP

UB Kickoff returned for 41 yard net

BG 34 yard FG

BG kickoff returned to UB 26

UB Kickoff returned to BG 25

BG Punt 39 yard net

BG Xp

BG xp

BG kickoff returned to UB 26

Buffalo has had special teams troubles all year, and this one was no exception. To an extent, even recovering the Geter fumble is a little bit of a gift and a 2-XP is almost not special teams.  Meanwhile, in addition to the blocked punts, Buffalo had a parade of ordinary plays that they did not get done.

Buffalo Positive (+6)

UB Kickoff returned to BG 18 (+1)

UB recovers BG fumbled punt (+3)

UB 2-XP (+1)

UB Punt 46 yard net (+1)

Buffalo Negative (-12)

UB Kickoff returned to BG 42 (-1)

Blocked Punt (-3)

BG Kickoff returned to UB 19 (-1)

UB Kickoff returned to BG 37 (-1)

BG punt 54 yard net with penalty on UB (-1)

Blocked punt (-3)

Bg kickoff returned to UB 8 with penalty (-1)

UB punt 17 yard net after penalty (-1)

Buffalo Neutral

BG kickoff returned to UB 20

UB Xp

UB Xp

UB xp

UB kickoff returned for 41 yard net

BG kickoff returned to UB 26

UB Kickoff returned to BG 25

UB Punt 39 yard net

UB punt 37 yard net

BG Kickoff returned to UB 26

On the season, BG had only its second plus game of the year.  BG had its highest positive points, though a -9 is pretty bad as you look back at the season.

Positive	Negative	Net
Troy	+3	-5	-2
Missouri	+10	-5	+5
Marshall	+2	-6	-4
Boise	0	-4	-4
OU	+8	-12	-4
Kent	+7	-11	-4
BSU	+6	-9	-3
CMU	+2	-5	-3
@UB	+13	-9	+4
Total	+51	-66	-15

When looking at opponent's plays, this is the second time a team has had a negative score when playing Bowling Green.

	Positive	Negative	Net
Troy	+7	-2	+5
Missouri	+8	-8	0
Marshall	+7	-3	+4
Boise	+5	-7	-2
Ohio U	+13	-9	+4
Kent	+13	-3	+10
BSU	+7	-3	+4
CMU	+7	-1	+6
UB	+6	-12	--6
Total	+73	-48	+25