Trade Rumors Fly

Perhaps the sole remaining dilemma for the Reds season is whether we have another fire sale and up with a worse team then we have now. Hal writes that Dunn and Griffey are the source of many trade rumors today.

My guess is that neither guy goes, but a couple pitchers might go.

Machado back

Note, Anderson Machado is back, safely sheltered from the waiver process. Marty asked the other night if this guy was some kind of all-star and we missed it...certainly, with the emergency of Felipe, his presence is less a priority than last year.

A lot of people are wondering why Kearns isn't back up. He is killing the ball in AAA, and I heard on TV last night that Narron told Machado and Olmdeo they might have to play OF in a pinch. I mean, if you're short on OF, why not bring Kearns up. Is he in the doghouse?

Machado is on the track to get 0 playing time, and it will be even worse when Freel comes back. Aurilia is coming around, so basically, we're keeping Machado on the bench to protect him.

Luke Hudson continues to struggle, although his Era did come down below 10 last night. Still, he's not getting it done.

The Giants series is an excellent microcosm of the season. When this team gets any pitching at all it can win games.

Eric Milton's road win was the first for a Reds starter since May 30, well more than a month. Ouch.

Finally, for those who have uttered the phrase "We might as well bring Jared Fernandez up, he can't be any worse," the word apparently from the Reds is that we could. He was released.

Excellent Interview with Coach Brandon

Great job from Mac Report Online with a pre-season interview of Coach Brandon. Nice talk, and thanks to Coach for taking the time with him.

Among the highlights.

• For all you recruiting junkies, he wants to redshirt everybody.
• No comment on Nick Lawrence--pending court decisions.
• Practice starts on August 6.
• He's certainly lukewarm on Temple, as he struggled to find anything good to say.

The juices are flowing....

Lopez to All-Star team

Well, the Reds got one kid on the all-star team, because its a rule, and it was Felipe Lopez. Congrats to him, he deserves it.

The Enquirer has a good article that notes that the dumb-asses who run our team didn't even have Felipe in the lineup until Mid-May, while they made man-love to Rich Aurilia.

And note, that Lopez was a pickup from Bowden on a nice trade with the Jays. He's going to be a good one, and continues in our tradition of great shortstops.

Lonnie Wheeler has a great article on Adam Dunn in the post...the batting order thing (Narron seeing the light, is he online?), and on the future of Dunn with this organization. See below, boldface is mine.

The Reds can afford both of them, but will probably lead us to believe that they can't. Of the two, Dunn - six years Casey's junior - is more likely to fetch the kind of pitcher the Reds can no longer do without. Nobody else in O'Brien's portfolio offers the exchange value of his left fielder.

But if you trade Dunn in the midst of a youth movement - and there have been rumbles to that effect - how do you explain it to the paying customers? Short of Albert Pujols, who in the game is a more productive hitter at his age?

All of this assumes that the Yankees or Braves or some other well-heeled contender will not be tempted by Griffey's steady march toward his illustrious past. All of it assumes that the Cincinnati landscape will remain overgrown with executive complications - that Carl Lindner isn't traded for an owner who will hire a COO who won't send his general manager to the plate with his shoes tied together.

In the meantime, color Joe Randa gone but don't count on an ace in return; or even a pair of fives. Hope that Austin Kearns is not redeemed at well below market value. Ponder Wily Mo Pena.

Pena is two years younger than Dunn, with every bit the power; nobody in the business has more. He makes $440,000 but after the season will be eligible for first-time arbitration, which will be kind to him. His tools elicit drools. For those reasons, the Reds could perhaps justify retaining him instead of his left-handed counterpart - if, that is, they place no value on two specific items:

If they don't care about a player's capacity for staying in the lineup day after day.

If they don't care about how it all looks.

To trade Dunn would be to cash in whatever good faith remains in the organization; to sell out the few fans whose extraordinary patience has kept them coming to the park.

To trade Dunn would be to perpetuate a rebuilding process that never gets beyond the subfloor.

To trade Casey would be hard. To trade Pena would be hard.

To trade Dunn would be regrettable.

Im at the city pool safely away from one more butt kicking for our team we could lose 100 games

Sunday Reds thoughts

Its nice to get a win. Let's not debate that. But let's not kid ourselves, we went a week without a win, and I am afraid this team is on a downward track.

Having said that, if the Rumor Central part of this trade happened (Milton to the Nats), it would be a boon. Trading Milton to a team in a pitcher's park would be a boon beyond belief, and getting any relief--ANY--from his salary would be a huge benefit. We signed him to a three year deal--stupidly--and he's starting to pitch better and now is the time to strike.

It does leave us woefully thin at starter, but I don't think even Jard Fernandez would be worse than Eric. But maybe I am wrong.

In the Enquirer, Jerry Narron has discovered that if you get guys on you'll score runs. WOW! (We are leading the NL in OPS)

John Fay has a column for all the geniuses on the Internet, which includes people like me, to email him what they would do if they were GM...so, you wanna be a GM, step up with the ideas.

Finally, Mr. Fay has analysis (actual data) of GABP and whether its the launching pad we think it is.

GREAT AMERICAN FACTOR: You can't blame the Reds' pitching woes on Great American Ball Park.

The park has a reputation for being a launching pad, and the ball does seem to fly out some nights.

But since the park opened, the Reds' staff has pitched better at home than on the road:

In 2003, the Reds had a 4.97 ERA at home, 5.22 on the road.

In 2004, the Reds had a 4.74 ERA at home, 5.66 on the road.

This year, entering Friday, the Reds had a 5.16 ERA at home, 6.35 on the road.

The Reds did give up more home runs at home than on the road each of the first two years at Great American - 118 to 91 in '03 and 128 to 108 in '04.

This year, through Thursday, the Reds were on pace to give up 126 at home and 120 on the road.

The Reds' offensive numbers support the theory that Great American isn't the hitting paradise it's thought to be.

The Reds were slightly better at home in 2003 than on the road. They hit .249 here and .241 away. They hit 12 more home runs at home - 97 to 85. But they had only three more RBI.

Last year, they were better in both categories on the road. They hit .242 at home and .250 on the road, with 92 home runs at home and 102 on the road.

This year, they're back to hitting better at home: .270 to .251, 1.58 homers per game to 1.05.

On the other hand, I read that the GABP has given up more homers per game than any park in the majors.

Finally, we would be remiss is we did not mention the possible end of the absolutely inspiring career of John Franco, who was DFA by the Astros. I'm not saying he won't hook on (he is a LH), but if it is the end, it is an absolutely fantastic career and a solid place in Reds lore.

Today, Brandon, whose ERA is finally below 4, will pitch against Roger Clemens. It would be nice to have Brandon keep the game close, and maybe we can win a game started by the Rocket for the second time this season. Its the last home game before the break, and the exact half-way point of the season.

The tragedy of 2005

When you look at tonight's starters, you can see how grim it is to be bad. The Astros are running out two guys (Woody Rogriguez 6.86 and Ezequiel Astascio 10.98) to the mound who are bad enough to pitch for Cincy. Even with the caveat that Rogriguez's stats are magnified by one really bad outing, that's nothing to be proud of. We are, in comparison, bringing our "ace" Aaron Harang, and Ramon Ortiz, an absolutely atrocious pitcher thus far.

In a post last February entitled what does .500 look like, I took a stab at what you might find in a .500 season for the Reds. What kind of numbers would you need?

Essentially, I thought the Reds could, if healthy, score 800 runs. As of today, the Reds have scored 4.92 runs per game, and the club is on a direct line to 800 runs this season. We are second in the National League in runs scored. Don't let anyone kid you, the offense is doing its job.

Now, the defensive side of the equation was always the challenge. Using phythagorean methods, at 4.92 scored/game, we obviously need a 4.91 ERA (or so, not counting unearned runs). Last season, our ERA was 5.19, so it is reasonable to say that if DanO and the FO had lowered our ERA by .2 runs per game, we'd be in the running for a .500 season. Doable? Last year's team suffered through 115 innings from Todd Van Poppel and 157 innings from Juan Acevedo.

Even better, a 4.63 ERA--a .5 reduction--would have put us in the range of 89 wins.

Put that in perspective. A 4.91 ERA would be 13th in the NL this year. A 4.63 ERA would be 12th.

That's the tragedy of this season. Even if our pitching was bad, and still well below average, we'd be in the running for a winning season and maybe a wild card berth. Instead, our ERA is 5.66, last in the NL and .5 runs worse than last year.

All DanO had to do was build a pitching staff that wasn't putrid. And he failed. I'm so proud.