No bounce? Here's why

As usual, Zogby nails it. You can't bounceaball with no air in it. The public is polarized and determined on thiselection,and there is no one to swing. Its going to come down to turnout,not hugeelectorate swings. And the election will be decided by issues ofwar andprosperity no one controls.

CONVENTION CONUNDRUM

This election year, a 'bounce' falls flat
Kerry left Boston without much of a budge in the polls, but that's not surprising given the tightness of the race. Now, it's on to New York


BY JOHN ZOGBY
John Zogby is president and CEO of Zogby International, an independent polling firm.

August 6, 2004

Matthew Dowd is a bright guy. He would have to be as pollster for the president of the United States. So when he declared a short time before the Democratic National Convention that John Kerry would receive about a 15-point bounce, he was displaying both a good sense of history and an astute skill in the game of expectations.

First, the history. Traditionally, a presidential candidate can expect a substantial bounce from his party's convention. Bill Clinton set the record with a 16-point bounce from the 1992 Democratic convention - a lead he never lost on his way to victory that year. And even Bob Dole got within a few points of Clinton in 1996 after the Republican convention that year. Only poor George McGovern in 1972 never emerged from a badly fractured Democratic convention with any bounce at all.

As a result of the historical bounces, pollsters and consultants love to play the expectations game. Some set the bar high, as Dowd did for Kerry. Then, if the candidate does not reach the bar raised by press and pundits, the convention was a failure.

But 2004 is proving to be a history-defying year in many ways. For starters, summer conventions are generally held in periods when about 20 to 25 percent of the voters are still undecided in national polls, and another 20 percent tell us pollsters that they could still change their minds.

Compare that with this year: Only 5 percent are genuinely undecided and only 3 percent of each candidate's supporters say they could still change their minds. There just is not the elasticity in 2004 to produce the kinds of dramatic bounces of the past.

Other factors also make this year different. Suffice it to say that voters in this country are about evenly split on most issues and almost evenly split on the candidate they will support. All of which suggests how closely fought this election will be.

John Kerry now leads the president in my latest poll by 5 points - 48 to 43 percent. Not surprisingly, Kerry received no real national bounce. Earlier in July he led 48 to 46 percent. It's the president's numbers that have gone down.

My polling since May has revealed just how difficult it will be for President George W. Bush to win this election. His job performance rating is 42 percent positive. The percentage of those who feel he "deserves to be re-elected" is only 42 percent, and only 41 percent feel that the country is headed in the right direction. Bush's edge over Kerry on battling the war on terrorism is now only 5 points, down from 24 points two months ago. And among those who feel that the economy is the top issue, Kerry leads by healthy double digits. Kerry's leads among those who cite health care and the war in Iraq are also double digits.

More ominously for the Bush campaign, when we ask those who are still undecided, their measures of the president's job performance, his deserving re-election and the country's moving in the right direction are only in the 20s. In other words, the overwhelming portion of the undecideds is not likely to vote for Bush's re-election.

It would appear that the president is facing an uphill battle. He has to get his own ratings up, he has to knock Kerry's numbers down, and he will have to dampen turnout overall in an electorate that to date looks like it will go to the polls in great numbers.

Given all of this, don't expect any real bounce after the Republicans convene in New York later this month. Bush will have to persuade at least some on the other side of the divide that the economy is good, his leadership is solid, Iraq is successfully moving toward democracy without Americans in harm's way, and his second term will be better. He is also going to have to convince the overwhelming majority of those undecided voters that he is doing a good job and the country is indeed headed in the right direction.

If he can do all that in four New York City nights (with only three hours on prime-time TV), he will receive a candidate's traditional big bounce. I think that is a very tall order and expect that Bush will only bounce to a tie with Kerry.

Then let the games begin.

Reds Trendline...or what a difference 30 games makes

Wasn't so long ago that I noted here that the Reds were making progress, just not as quickly as it seemed. I guess I got caught up in the same euphoria everyone else did, but its clear that the nagging sense we had from the pythag was right--it was unsustainable. Injuries only made it worse. Simply put, this team's pitching is worse than last year's pitching, as it stands today. No point in making a big fuss about it, but the new guys who came in are worse than the abysmal pitching of last year. Way too many hits and homers, and not enough K's to cancel it out. Still, only four under .500, a break-even season is within reach with a healthy August-September, and that's a good year for this team. (By the by, Reds are now +7 on their pythag...)

BB/9 (2003--3.67 2004--3.32 NL Avg--3.42) (Note, this has steadily risen all year)
K/9 (2003--5.80 2004--5.98 NL Avg--6.54) (Falling...)
H/9 (2003--9.82 2004--10.08 NL Avg--8.96) (Ouch)
ERA (2003--5.09 2004--5.20 NL Avg--4.27)
K/bb (2003--1.58 2004--1.80 NL Avg--1.91)
hr/9 (2003--1.30 2004--1.39 NL Avg--1.07)
e/game (2003--0.87 2004--0.69)

Say it Ain't so ken

Ouch. I cannot say how disappointed I am. I mean, keeping it in perspective, we all know that even this year we didn't get the Griffey we traded for.

He's now a one-dimensional offensive player...low BA, good power. Not only doesn't he steal, but he can barely run from second to home. Good defense. Good arm.

But his presence in the lineup added an energy and a strength we will be missing without him.

Not to mention the fan appeal. It was just great to have him in the lineup.

And he was elected to start the All-Star game, and was set for the HR derby. Gone. I really am sick about it.

Now, it looks like another season like all the rest. He's out at least 5 weeks--they seem to fear many more on the radio today.

Our shallow lineup is all the more exposed now. Still, we rallied for a win today to finish out 3/4.

I'll do a mid-season wrap up in the next couple days. Suffice it to say that if this team, with its injuries, will be lucky they to finish .500.

They better hope Sean Casey doesn't tail off in the second half again.

That one hurts.

We needed last night's win--badly. You get good pitching and good enough hitting, and bring in a guy who is pitching really well, and boom, the Cardinals win.

The Cardinals are a good team, and objectively, they are a much better team than the Reds. They have a number of strong hitters. I don't think those pitches that were hit to left last night off White were bad pitches--good hitters just hit good pitches.

St. Louis plays long ball

Congratulations!!

A well-deserving honor for the over-achieving Reds. Thanks to Jack McKeon for not holding a grudge!!

Four Reds named All-Stars

Update: Reds Trendline

As part of what is nominally a continuing series, I'm looking at the areas where the Reds looked to improve their pitching and whether its working or not.

The basic answer is yes, but it still has a ways to go. I remain somewhat encouraged. Claussen and Bong are pitching well in AAA, and I continue to think the team may have enough umph to put together decent pitching in the future. The bottom line for 2004 is this...when the hitters are healthy, we're a decent team, maybe 88 wins. When the hitters are benched, we have no depth, and we're barely servicable.

With that in mind, here is how the numbers stack up. Our control is better and strikeouts better than last year--but still below average. We are giving up just as many HR's (second most in NL and more than the Rockies), and one hit per game above the league average. We are 14th in Runs Allowed. The slight drop over 2003 in ERA is due to better control and more K's, but its still very high.

BB/9 (2003--3.67 2004--3.19 NL Avg--3.42) (Note, this has steadily risen all year)
K/9 (2003--5.80 2004--6.05 NL Avg--6.54)
H/9 (2003--9.82 2004--9.81 NL Avg--8.96)
ERA (2003--5.09 2004--4.98 NL Avg--4.27)
K/bb (2003--1.58 2004--1.90 NL Avg--1.91)
hr/9 (2003--1.30 2004--1.34 NL Avg--1.07) (Rocketed up in the past month)
e/game (2003--0.87 2004--0.61)

Finally, our pythag. We should be 36-44, and we are 43-37, so we are seven games above our pythag, and holding, more or less, over a month ago. Some might argue its inflated by a couple blowouts (Oakland and Cleveland...curse inter-league play), but this team is still over its head. I love it, and we play hard and don't give up, but we are over our head.

The Reds ERA is almost equal to the D-Backs. Yet they are 29-52. Amazing.

Well, we need to win the series today, which we should be able to do, and then head to Busch for the fourth, grit our teeth and pull some wins out. They have nasty pitching waiting for us, and if our guys do not produce or are not healthy, we will get eaten alive.

Great and fun New Game

With the Reds not doing so well, and Falcon football some 64 days away, and Lion football another 8 days further out than that, I wanted to divert a minute to give props to a great new outdoor game my son got for his birthday. Its from Temperance, Michigan, and its called Rattle Rail Toss. Its kind of like horseshoes, but a lot easier. You throw weighted balls with rope between them at a stand that has three rails in them, and you get points when you wrap the rope around the target.

Its a heck of a lot of fun. Check the web site out below for a better description, but its a great game because its challenging enough to be interesting, but can be played competitively by nearly any age person, especially if you let the little ones stand a little closer. I have no stake in this product, merely to say its a riot on a summer evening. It would be great for picnics and family gatherings, and it is easy to break up for team play as well as for head to head play.

Rattle Rail Toss

Finally, for anyone who wants a succinct description of what ails our Reds, I think this does the trick.

Daugherty in Enquirer