BG/CM MBB Preview

 OK, here we go.

BG makes their first MAC tourney appearance since 2021, when they played with a badly hobbled Justin Turner and still had a shot to win until Jermaine Marshall, logging less than 10 minutes a game, nailed 2 of his 4 career 3FGs in the closing minutes to beat the Falcons.  At the time, I said you could kind of feel a window closing and that was, in fact, what happened.

This year's team is facing CMU...a team BG lost at home in 2OT and in Mt. Pleasant in OT.  BG struggled to shoot against them in both games...2 of their 4 worst shooting games for the season.  (Worst and 4th worst).  The fact that either game went into OT was a miracle. BG shot 35% and 43% from 2FG and 6% and 21% from 3FG.

So, there's a reason for that.  To start with, BG is the #10 shooting team in the MAC.  Add to it that CMU is the hardest team in the MAC to shoot against.  (They are the best defensive team overall, as well).

So why were those games close?  In the first game, BG was +11 at the line and had 3 turnovers to CMU's 16. Also, note that CMU played without Anthony Pritchard and Markus Harding in this one.

In the second game, BG was +17 at the line, double the offensive rebounding while having 6 more turnovers.  BG was up 4 with :19 left to play in this one.

CMU doesn't usually foul as much as they did to BG in the first two games--two of their 5 worst MAC games in free throw rate.  That can also impact BG's FG%, because you are getting fouled every time you have an open shot.  While struggling much of the year, BG finished #7 in the MAC in FT%,

So, look, BG nearly beat these guys both times...but didn't.  In a sense, the road OT game against a fully stocked CMU lineup is actually the bigger accomplishment.

BG's game plan is normally below average shooting, low turnovers, good offensive rebounding and getting to the line.  Based on the first two games, they have a long way to go to get to below average.  That's also going to include making some 3FGs, because I expect CMU to pack it in and guard the paint, which is the percentage play against the Falcons.

Even so, this is an entirely winnable game for BG.  Kenpom gives BG a 56% chance of winning, though their formula penalizes CMU for a dreadful 2023 portion of the schedule.  They are better than that now. Vegas has BG -2.5 and a 67% chance of winning.

I'm really looking forward to this game.  Somebody is going to win 3 games this weekend.  Maybe it's us. With a win, based on UT's history, we get Kent in the final and who knows?