Ragin' Cajun Preview

The MAC-Sun Belt Challenge concludes tomorrow.  Probably be decided by then, but who knows.  BG has been assigned Louisiana (Lafayette), the Ragin' Cajuns, in the Cajundome. 

They have been to the NCAA Tournament 11 times, including last year.  They made deep runs in the early 1970s before recruiting violations resulted in them being the first NCAA school to get the death penalty.  

Their coach, Bob Marlin has been there 14 years and has won 59% of his games. 

As mentioned, they won the Sun Belt last year after tying for 2nd in the regular season.  They were 26-88 and had a kenpom of 88 and lost to Tennessee by 3 in a game that was not close most of the way.

Then they experienced something that MAC fans are familiar with.  Their star player, 6'10" Jordan Brown, first-team All-Sun Belt and scoring 19 PPG and 9 RPG--transferred to Memphis.  There was an illness, rumors he left the team and he has played 108 minutes this season.

This is the first meeting between the two teams.  BGSU says in the game notes that BG has played 320 unique opponents.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 15-9 this year with a kenpom of 132, which ranks just slightly ahead of Toledo.  Speaking of which, they lost by 9 at Savage this year.  They beat UB by 8 on a neutral floor.  They were 8-8 at one point and have won 7 of 8 since then and are 4th in the Sun Belt. the #17 ranked conference.  The MAC is #24.

The teams play at nearly an identical pace--68 possessions per game. 

These numbers are all games, adjusted for schedule.  (BG has played the #348 schedule overall, ULL #144).  As you can see, this is very even.  ULL is an above-average offensive team and average on defense.  BG is average on offense and below average on defense.

These numbers are all games, but not adjusted.  As you would expect, though, they are pretty similar. The Ragin' Cajuns take pretty much a normal proportion of 3s, and make 35% from 3FG and 52% from 2FG.  BG, for its part, is really weak defending the 3FG.  Rebounding will be a key battle. Though they don't get to the line a ton, ULL makes 75% at the line, #49 in the country.

Things will be more interesting when BG has the ball. BG's MAC opponents have been packing it in on them.  ULL leads the nation in 3FG defense....27% and is #32 in forcing turnovers and #43 in steals. They are #339 defending the 2FG and terrible on their defensive boards..  A game plan like the UB and BSU wins looks good.  They give up a ton of FTs, which can work for BG or against them.  When you have a good shot and they foul you and then you convert 65%, that's tough to work with.

Their leading scorer is Kobe Julien, a 6'6" JR who was third-team All-Sun Belt two seasons ago.  He scores 18 PPG on 52% 2FG and 35% 3FG shooting, which is pretty efficient.  He also averages 4.8 RPG and has 19 blocks and 27 steals on the year.

Next is Themus Fulks, a G. He scores 11.3 PPG a game, on 43% and 21% shooting.  Which is not efficient.  He is #2 in the Sun Belt with 4.5 assists per game, and #6 in A/TO ratio.  

From "Cajun Pride Swamp Tours"

Hosana Kitenge is 6'8" and a Junior JUCO product, born in England. He scores 11.3 on 55% 2FG shooting and adds 5.7 RPG. 

Joe Charles is 6'9" and scores 11.3 PPG.  He's a stretch, making 54% and 39%. He's second in the Sun Belt with 9.9 RPG. 

So here we go.  Kenpom and ESPN give us a 21% chance of winning.  Based on the current kenpoms, this is the 2nd best team we have played all year, behind Akron.  Will be a great chance for us to rally and pick a win for the MAC homestretch.