Falcons Head to JAR of Horrors

 BG MBB will bring its 8 game winning streak into the toughest game on its schedule...Akron @ The Jar.

When we talk about being in the conversation every year, this is one of the programs we have in mind. In the 18 non-COVID seasons since Keith Dambrot arrived, they have 20 wins in 15 of them. They have been to the NCAA Tournament four times, once under John Groce, their current coach. Groce also won the regular season title the year the tournament was canceled.

They were picked by the MAC and Blue Ribbon to win the MAC this year and to date they have the best kenpom in the MAC at 96. 

They are 9-4 and 7-4 in D1 ball.  They missed 4 opportunities for a win you could hang your hat on.  On neutral floors, they lost to Utah State (44) by 3, Drank (67) by 20 and St. Bonaventure (69) by 1.  They also lost @UNLV (94).  But that's all the losses--not a bad one in the bunch.  Their wins are not great.  They beat Bradley (114) at the JAR by 15 and won @South Dakota State (150) and the rest are over 200.

They won their MAC opener in a road romp over NIU by 22.

Since BG Grad Dan Hipsher left Akron, the Zips have owned the Falcons like no other.  They are 34-5 against BG in that time. It's better recently...the Zips are only 7-3 against BG in the last 10.  BG has won twice at the JAR since 2009, the last one a 2021 win by 12 that was the last win that year for BG.

The Zips were 15-1 at home last year and under Groce have won 86% of their home games.

They are really solid on defense, ranking #114 in the country for defensive efficiency.  BG is also struggling offensively for the year, so good offense vs. bad defense, seems pretty predictable. The real test will come on the other side, where Akron has a top 100 offense matching up against a BG defense that has been really solid for the year.  This will be their toughest test and 

Looking in more closely, Akron is a really good shooting team.  Overall, #51 in the country. They take 42% of their shots from 3FG, compared to the D1 average of 37%.  They make 35%, which is in the top third of the country and complement that with making 55% on 2FG, which is top 40 in the country.  BG has been very effective on 2FG defense, allowing just 47%,  So that would appear to be part of where the contest will be fought.  UA does turn the ball over a lot, but BG doesn't push for turnovers. They are slightly above average on the offensive boards--where BG has been strong--and they are average at getting to the line and making FT.  BG is #18 in the country in not letting teams get to the line.  That will be another key test, especially with a contest over 2FGs.

Here things seem pretty even.  The one thing is that the Zips don't give up FTs and BG has relied on that in more than one game. It would be my guess that Akron (and the rest of the MAC) will have a gameplan for dealing with Marcus Hill.  BG may have to work harder to get him open and also develop other scoring options.

Enrique Freeman is their star player.  He is #1 in the nation in rebounds at 13 a game. He also scores 18 a game, makes 66% of his 2FGs and has added rate 3FG shooting at 42%.  Also, 18 blocks so far.  He's the early leader for MAC POY.

They also have Ali Ali.  He played at Akron, transferred to Butler and then transferred back.  The NCAA denied his waiver and he eventually won on appeal, but this is only his 6th game this year.  (Their 3-game losing streak came with him out).  He is scoring 17.6 on 73% 2FG shooting and 35% 3FG shooting. 

Sammy Hunter scored 10 PPG on 41% 3FG shooting.  He transferred from Mississippi.  Nate Johnson is shooting 46% on 3FGs. 

So Game 2 brings up a tough assignment in a place BG has struggled to win.  We scheduled the pre-MAC to avoid any games like this.  We will see how the Falcons react.