Football: Year in Review

Well, it is over.  It always goes so fast.  Seems like two minutes ago we were gnashing our teeth while we threw all those picks to Liberty and then we are gnashing out teeth over the bowl game...I kid, of course.

This is year five of the Loeffler program. It has been a long road. He promised us a five-year plan to be in championship contention.  We are not there, to be sure.  But we have come a long way. No doubt, the correct path is to stay with the program.

BG had an incredibly tough schedule this year.  Our financial position puts us twice in P5 stadiums every year, and this year the MAC nestled our two toughest MAC games into that part of the schedule.'

BG salvaged the early part of the season with the Georgia Tech upset and then cruised through the easier part of the schedule to finish 7-5 and 7-6 with the bowl loss.

I think that with the recency bias of finishing with those wins, it's easy to forget that OU beat us 38-7 and Miami beat us 27-0.  The OU game was an embarrassment.

With one exception, we beat the teams we were supposed to beat and lost to the teams we were supposed to lose to.  

So, no one thinks the job is finished.  To make the next climb, BG needs to beat the top teams in the MAC and do more than feast on the weaker teams, especially as the division schedule goes away. The program has moved from terrible to decent....going from here to great is also tough, maybe tougher.

I'm glad we were patient.  Future success will continue to be a test and the MAC's new set-up is an additional hurdle.

Last year, I noted that despite being 5-3 in the MAC, BG finished -55 in point differential in MAC games...worst in the MAC.  You don't usually see that.  Teams consistently set up to win don't show that.

BG turned that around this year.  While finishing with the same MAC record, BG was +35.  The 90 point improvement was 3rd in the MAC behind NIU and Miami.  (NIU is also rebuilding).

It was a step toward sustainability.

A few things on the season as a whole:

Turnovers

BG was 3rd in scoring offense but 5th in yards per play and 7th in yards per game.  We were outgained by 8 yards a game.  When you see an imbalance like that, it is usually because the offense is either getting turnovers or doing very well on 3rd down or in the red zone.  In this case, we know the answer.  BG was 8th on 3rd down and 5th in the redzone.  BG excelled at turnovers.  

We were +9 for all games, which was 2nd in the MAC (OU was +10).  In 8 MAC games, BG was +7. 

A couple points.

I have nothing against turnovers.  No one does. I hope we go +7 next year.  Or more.  Phil Steele tells us that historically it's not a sustainable way to win.  Since 1990, 72% of the teams with a turnover margin in this range have the same or worse record the next season.  No, it's not 100% but it shows that there is an element of luck in turnovers and therefore is hard to replicate.  I would point you to USC's +22 last year and their performance this year.

The point is that it can paper over weaknesses in your offense.  Despite being 3rd in the MAC in scoring, BG does not have a championship-level offense.  We were 5th in the MAC in yards per carry, gaining a full yard over the year before.  That's significant. The passing was also decent...BG was #4 in pass efficiency.  Of course, we played part of the conference season without Terrion Stewart...a fully healthy back changes everything.

I don't think any sentence about our team starts without the idea of having Terrion Stewart healthy for the full season.  He's truly a special player and would become the center point of our offense.  As we look to move the offense into high gear, it starts with him.  We will need a clear #2. Keith is gone.  We have Patterson and Johnson.  Coach mentioned incoming FR...it is possible for Nakai Amachree to play that role, too.

Other than that, what was the issue?  First, pass protection.  BG gave up sacks on 8.8% of its passing attempts, which is well below average. PFF had BG with the 11th-ranked pass blocking in the MAC.  Other measures were not so bad.  Bazelak was pressured on 31% of his drops, which is in the middle of the MAC pack.  Teams below us...Toledo, Miami, OU and NIU.

This is not all on the oline.  I think BG had a lack of healthy WRs able to get separation.  We also helped to keep pressures down with playcalling.  Our average depth of target was among the lower in the MAC and way lower when we kept Bazelak clean.

Last thing.  On the QB.  Coach is clearly planning to keep this duo in place for next year.  At his presser, Coach said that they might go into the portal for a guy between Bazelak and Anderson, but it wasn't certain.  And, we didn't get a HS QB in the class.  Bazelak finished 6th in the MAC in passing efficiency.  PFF graded him #11.  Their grades do show him improving later in the year--admittedly against weaker opposition.  The first half against UT, he was unstoppable.  

I think he can be effective when we have a complete offensive package.  Stewart for 12 games, improved healthy WRs and better protection.  Regardless, all indications are he will be under center next year.

Offensive Line

Having said that, the line needs to get better.  As mentioned, BG was #11 in pass blocking and #8 in run blocking.  It's no coincidence that our lead back is the most elusive back in the nation (PFF).  He needs to be.  We need a line that gets us that one first down to beat Toledo (and yes, we were down to backups at QB and RB).  Like most of the team, our oline has gone from dreadful to decent, maybe slightly below. Hopefully, we will see the next step after another year of development.  We are active in the portal with lineman.  Also, we are in dire need of healthy WRs to get separation.

Defense

The defense is kind of the opposite story.  We were #7 in points allowed per game...just a tick behind Toledo.  You can win at that level. BG was #4 in yards per play allowed. #4 in yards per rush allowed and #4 in pass efficiency defense. So, that's interesting, too.  BG is good on all the marginal stats, gets all those turnovers and still gives up more points than you would expect. BG was 11th on third down and had a poor red zone record, but only gave up 16 red zone trips, so it didn't matter that much.

BG's defense thrived on getting pressure. BG was 3rd in sacks.  BG got sacks on 9% of opponent passing attempts, which is really strong.  BG also was ranked 3rd in pass rush in PFF.  Furthermore, they had the top pass coverage grade in the conference.

In short, the defense has really taken steps forward and not only played well on its own but created many of the offense's scoring opportunities.

And this was without its best player, Demetrious Hardamon, after the Michigan game.  Not a bad year at all. 

Hardamon and Trent Simms are expected back.  However, as you can see below on the depth chart, the team has lost players to the portal, including Howell and Huskey, two standout players.  This is the world that we live in.

Special Teams

Special teams were on balance a contributor.  BG made big plays--two blocked punts and a blocked FG.  We need them.  They actually add to that turnover count. The net punting was ranked in the middle of the conference...with shorter kicks but almost no returns. BG switched punters mid-stream and they got roughly the same numbers.  BG had 2-3 game altering returns and from my count, gave up 1.

Summary

One last note.  The Liberty game, in retrospect, is a real tragedy. We played so poorly in the first half.  I just felt like if we were playing our best game, we had a shot at those guys, and they obviously had an amazing season.

Look, it took a long time.  It sucked. It's a lot more fun to win.  The switch to pods will be significant.  It isn't going to get easier....you will have to be the 2nd best team to make Detroit.