Football Preview

So, the game is afoot.  We are six days from the opener.

I'll start with a global view.  Coach Loeffler is in his 5th year.  He came here with a plan and we were asked to be patient.  We went through the ugly part, and last year we got to at least a respectable part.  All along, we were told that in Year 5 we would be ready to compete for a championship.

It's here.  Coach has this year and two more years on his deal.  I still think he could be gone at the end of this year, depending on how things go.

So, about that.  First, as always, the schedule is brutal. This is part of our lot in life.  We start @Liberty, a quality mid-major picked 2nd in Conference USA.  They played UT tough in the bowl game, but then again BG beat UT, so we come out ahead there.  Anyway, it's not an easy game.

Then, we play our FCS opponent.  Every MAC team plays 1 of these and at least this time we appear to have at least gotten one we can beat.  EIU is picked 10th in the OVC.

Then we head to the Big House.  BG has 2 FBS opponents--as do 7 other MAC opponents.  WMU plays 3.  UB, OU, EMU and UT only plays 1.

So, we have UM, OU (At the Doyt) and Georgia Tech in consecutive weeks, followed by @Miami and @UB.  Not easy.

On the other hand, our crossover games include Ball State and WMU, the two bottom teams in the MAC West.

So, here is the thing.  BG could certainly be improved and have it not show in the record.  Last year, BG was 6-7 and 5-3 in the MAC with a -55 point differential in conference play.  The point differential was last in the MAC...we won close games and often lost by lopsided scores.  Very unusual and more likely to see regression than progression.

In fact, I think you could argue that we would have to improve to get to 6-7 and 5-3 again.

Even if we did, is that enough to continue on our current path? Do we really need a 6 or 7 year rebuild? 

That is assuming we don't backtrack, of course.

By year 5, we were told we would be back.  Implied in that is that other teams would see us on the schedule and think uh-oh.  Not the other way around.

I would love for this to succeed.  But, there's only so much patience anyone should be expected to have.  We've gone from awful to average.  The next jump is tougher.

I went back and looked at the last 10 MAC seasons, eliminating the COVID year.  There are 20 teams in the MAC title game in those 10 years.  11 of them were in the top 4 in the MAC (conference only) scoring offense and scoring defense.  7 of them were top 4 in one or the other.  And 2 were outside the top 4 in both--one of them the 2015 BG team.

So, can our units get into the Top 4?

Let us start with the offense, which was #11 in scoring offense.  That was the result of a #11 running game, #10 on 3rd down conversation, last in red zone and 18 offensive turnovers.  BG was 4th in passing efficiency.  They were 6th in yards per play, which is not bad, but did not convert to points based on being one-dimensional and unable to convert on 3rd down and in the red zone.  BG had 4 red zone turnovers.  OU and CMU had 2 and no other team had more than 1 and most of those teams had more red zone trips than we did.  BG turned it over on 16% of their red zone trips.  OU on 4%.

Anyway, what are the prospects for turning this around? BG would need to go from 20 PPG to 29 to be in the top 4. 

Coach has said that BG has to run the ball (and "we will, period, full stop."). I think anyone would agree with that.  A consistent running game improves each part of our offense.  Terion Stewart will help.  He is clearly better than anyone else we had last year. We have depth and versatility in Keith, but after that a couple guys who were about the MAC average.

But the RBs are only part of the story.  The key will be on the offensive line, a position group that has plagued our program since before Loeffler was here. The Falcons were 8th in pass blocking and 11th in run blocking last year, based on PFF.  In other words, the line went from awful to below average.  If the Falcons are going to run the ball, they will need significantly improved run blocking--especially since their two best run blockers (Grant and Robinson) are gone.

We will see how the depth chart looks tomorrow.  Transfers were brought in, and one DL was moved to the other side of the ball.  Young players who return can also develop.  But if BG is going to run the ball effectively, they need a significant upgrade on the OL.  Full stop.

The last offensive area to talk about is QB.  I think the WRs are solid and even among the best in the MAC.

So, after Matt McDonald struggled for a couple years with injuries and a lack of a supporting cast, he got a chance in his last year to show us what he could do, ranking #3 at QB according to PFF.

He is gone.  BG had a camp battle between Camden Orth, who played serviceably when McDonald was injured last year, and Conner Bazelak, a transfer from Indiana.  Bazelak has had good parts to his career--SEC Fr. of Year--and bad parts--losing the job at IU.  If he gets the job, which I expect, which Bazelak we see is going to have a big role in how strong the offense is.  Is it reasonable to expect more than we got out of McDonald last year?  

That's the offense.  Poor last year and how much better this year?

On defense, BG was 8th and returns 5 starters--and loses its DC, who had seemed to do a nice job with the unit.

BG was 8th in scoring defense at 27 PPG. 2 PPG would get them to where 4th was last year.

BG was 7th in yards per play, 6th in yards per rush allowed and 9th in pass defense efficiency.  They were 3rd in sacks, last on 3rd down and 4th in the red zone.  All checks out pretty consistently.

BG lost Karl Brooks, Walter Haire, DJ Taylor, Chris Bacon, Jordan Anderson, Brandon Spires and Bryce Brand--included in that we 5 of the top tacklers.

To replace them, there are transfers on the DL and at LB and a JUCO at DB.  In addition, Davon Ferguson and Darren Anders both entered the portal and then returned to BG--significant for us.  Imagine if that list above included those two names as well.

Phil Steele ranks us 9th on the Dline, 7th at LB and 9th in the d-backfield.  I would certainly agree that LB is the defense's strength.  I'm hopeful the backfield ends up ranked better than this.  The biggest loss will be the QB pressure that changes everything.  It might be a lot harder to defend the pass without Karl Brooks on the D-line.  There are some P5 transfers on the Dline, but there's a lot to replace.

As for special teams, Sami Sir is back and was #7 in the MAC.  PK is a huge question mark.  Lawler graduated and BG was auditioning four guys at the scrimmage I saw.  Jackson Kleather was a HS star we recruited.

I think we will be good on the return game.

The Blade did a survey of BG fans, and people were mostly right in the middle on our program.  Understanding what had to happen but not sold on the idea that it would progress further.  

In my view, we will need to be significantly better than last year to get where we need to be.  That has happened in the MAC.  You just have a time when lots of things that have been percolating finally come to a boil.

I hope it happens.  It's going to take a lot.  I don't think being a little better will be enough.  But I'd love to succeed with these coaches. What I fear is a very difficult decision this fall.

We could know something right away, I think.  Any improved record would probably include a road win against Liberty, where BG is a 10-point underdog.