The Regular Season Ends (MBB)

And maybe the whole year...

So first, from BGSU, here are the scenarios with a full explanation. (I added the percentages from kenpom).

BGSU Win (6-12), Miami Loss (6-12), Central Michigan Loss (5-13)--8.1% chance.

At 5-13, Central Michigan wouldn't factor into the tiebreakers in this scenario. If Eastern Michigan wins, BGSU would take the three-team tiebreaker against Miami and EMU with a record of 3-1 (.750) against the two teams, whereas both Miami and EMU would be 1-2 (.333) against the others. If Eastern Michigan loses, it would be a two-team tiebreaker between BGSU and Miami. BGSU and Miami split the season series, so it would go to the head-to-head against MAC standings. BGSU's top win would be Ohio, Miami's would be Buffalo. Ohio and Buffalo would also be in a tiebreaker, both at 9-9 and a split season series. Ohio's best win is Akron, who is locked into a higher spot than Buffalo's top win Ball State. Thus, tiebreaker goes to Ohio, which results in the tiebreaker going to BGSU. In this scenario, NIU would also be 9-9, but they were swept by both Ohio and Buffalo and wouldn't factor into the tiebreaker to determine the standings. 

BGSU Win, Miami Loss, Central Michigan Win, Eastern Michigan Win--2.4% chance

If CMU wins, BGSU will need an EMU win as well. In a four-team tiebreaker with all teams at 6-12, this would go to the head-to-head records against all tied teams. Bowling Green would be 4-2 (.667) and the next would be Central at 3-2 (.600). If CMU wins and EMU loses, Central Michigan would take the three-team tiebreaker between BGSU, Miami and CMU. CMU won the only Miami-CMU game, making them 2-1 (.667) whereas Bowling Green would be 2-2 (.500) and Miami would be 1-2 (.333).

Miami could easily lose @UB, but the toughest will be BG winning at OU.

BG did beat OU the first time the two teams played. At the time, BG was 2-0 and OU was 0-2.  OU was 3-6 before winning 6 straight.  They have lost their last 2, @Miami and @Kent.

Boals has done a good job with this team. Jason Carter graduated (and was ejected from his last game at the Stroh), and Ben Vander Plas and Mark Sears disappeared into the portal.  They returned only 6 scholarship players and no double-figure scorers. They did get Dwight Wilson back...and some transfers...and were picked 6th in the MAC.

And that's right about where they are.

In the first game, BG outscored OU 17-7 in the last four minutes to rally and win the game.

So, on paper this looks like a predictable game.  What they score we allow, and vice versa. They are the #3 offensive team in the MAC and #8 on defense.  BG is #6 on offense and #10 on defense.  But, just to note OU is +.04 and BG is -.05.

OU might be the most 3FG focused team in the MAC. They are #3 in attempt rate and #2 in making them.  However, they are #10 in 2FG shooting and end up #6 in shooting,  As we know, BG is the easiest team to shoot on in the MAC. OU takes great care of the ball, is strong on the offensive boards.  They do not get to the line a lot and are #6 in FT shooting.

OU defense is average.  Their strength is defensive rebounding, but they are easy to shoot against, esepcially on 2FG,  they do OK on turnovers and they give up a lot of FTs.   BG tries a higher rate of 2FGs than any other team in the MAC, so there may be an opportunity here.

Dwight Wilson is the top player on this team.  Back from an injury, he's a clear All-MAC peformer.  He's scoring 17.4 PPG on 64% shooting. (all 2FGs).  For players using a lot of possessions, he is the most efficient player in the MAC.  He also adds 9 rebounds a game.  He is #6 in scoring, #4 in rebounding and #3 in FG%.

Jaylin Hunter, an ODU transfer, scores 15.5 PPG on 52% and 44% shooting, also highly efficent.  He adds 4 APG.

Miles Brown is scoring 11.5 PPG. He is home-grown.  He shoots 46% and 42%, also very efficient.

Probability is that this is the last game BG plays.  We will see.  In the MAC, OU's only home loss was to Kent.  Kenpom gives them the #45 home court advantage in D1.