BG MBB 98% chance to win, loses

Certainly a deflating and disappointing loss last night.  To be sure, there's not much on the table anyway, but you'd like to see the team win.

BG was up 11 with 5 minutes left to play.  Kenpom had BG with a 98.1% chance of winning. From 68-57 ahead, BG played their way right out of the game, outscored 20-6 in those last five minutes...that's 20 points in an 8th of a game.

One of the things that drives me crazy is Coach Huger bleeding clock.  I think he does it too early and with too small a lead.  It would be different if he had a guy who could drive and get to the rim or get fouled consistently, but he doesn't. So, you run the clock down, get an empty possession, nothing on the boards and CMU comes down and scores.  BG even ran clock when they were behind with :34 left.  Coach would put 1 guy high and four on the baseline.  He would stand there and tell everyone to wait.  The idea is to run a guy out for a screen and then the guy with the ball drives or passes.  On a couple of occasions, CM ran out a double-team to keep that from happening.  I don't understand the thinking behind this...it seems like we dribbled the game away.

In that span, BG scored 4 FTs and one basket by Metheny. They had 3 turnovers and missed 3 shots.

That wasn't the only issue, to be sure. CMU had an easy night shooting, with 54% from 2FG and 50% from 3FG. Their scoring was limited to 1.08 because of turnovers and poor offensive rebounding.   BG had 1.05 points per possession, shooting well from 3FG (47%) but badly from 2FG (42%), second worst in MAC play.  BG was 11-21 inside the restricted area (52%) while CMU was 13 of 17 for 76%.

Lastly, BG had an advantage in getting to the line but made 15 of 26, only +3.

CMU has an incredible run of finishes this year.  Based on minimum win probability, they have the #23, (this game), #30 (Michigan), #54 (WMU) and #87 (Miami) comebacks in D1 this year.  No other MAC team is in the top 100 for any game.  There have been 4,957 games, so top 100 is top 2%.

This is often a trend that reverses itself the next year.  We shall see.

BG now falls into 9th place. They have lost 6 straight and 9 of their last 11. UT comes to town Saturday and Kent will do so later.  We probably won't make Cleveland and even if we do, you are looking at a quick exit.  It's very disappointing.  The program has come full circle.  From picking up the pieces of the Jans turmoil to two years with a shot to make the tourney and now back to being as bad as we were in 2016.