Zips Arrive in BG for MBB test

The always-tough Akron Zips are coming to town.  They are one of the three consistent programs in the MAC and made the NCAAs last year for the first time under John Groce.  They were 24-10 and lost in the first round.

They were picked #3 in the MAC this year.  They are 8-6 in D1 play...their 5 non-conference losses were all to top 100 teams, but their only decent win was over WKU on a neutral floor.  In MAC play,  they opened by beating NIU at the JAR and then lost in Muncie to a rising Ball State.  Their kenpom is 126, and BG is 245.

This is a good team.  They have played the MAC season without Xavier Castenada to date.  He was listed as game-time decision Saturday and from that, I would expect him to play tomorrow.

Of course, the BG track record with Akron is not good.  The Zips have won 7 of the last 10, which isn't great except for the Zips winning 25 of 26 before that.

The first battle will be over pace.  UA plays at 65 possessions per game, BG at 70.  The Zips are #303 in the nation in pace.

Akron is not a great offensive team. At 1.01 per possession, that's below the national average. The key is defense, as it usually is. They are a top 100 defense.  BG has been on a hot streak on offense, and that's going to be the key element.  Can BG score enough against a strong Zip defense that will try to keep them playing in the half court.

The Zips are respectable on all aspects of the offense except shooting.  They are above average on turnovers and at getting to the line and they rebound really well for a team controlling the pace.  

Shooting is the issue.  They try 41% 3FGAs, which is a lot.  They make only 32% on 3FGs and 47% on 2FGs, neither of which is very good.  They make 73% FTs which is above average.

Defensively, they do everything well.  They are hard to shoot against--especially on 2FG, where they are #52 in the nation--buy they are above average on turnovers and offensive rebounding and they do not give up FTs.

One weakness is defending the 3FG, which is #269.  Teams don't try 3FGs against them--only 31%, #23 in the country--but they have given 3s up.

Individually, Castenada is their leading scorer and #2 in the MAC at 19.5 PPG.  He has missed the last 2 games. He's not especially efficient, shooting 39% on 2FG....but he makes 40% on 3FGs. He leads the MAC in 3FG per game.  He also leads the team with 39 assists.

Enrique Freeman is their only other double figure scorer at 14.3.  He's a double-double average, with 10.6 RPG (#1 in MAC).  He shoots 58% on almost all 2FGs and was all-MAC second team last year.  He has 33 assists and 35 turnovers.  

There are no other double-figure scorers, but they do have Trendon Hankerson, NIU transfer, at 9 PPG.

This is a good test. BG has been playing well, but here's a top-3 team in the MAC who has traditionally given BG fits.  I have liked what I saw the last two games and I hope we get a nice crowd tomorrow and BG continues to show growth on the court with their new lineup and a cohesive team.