Next Up: Norfolk State (MBB)

Next up is Norfolk State, a team we should be well familiar with.  This is the 5th meeting between the two teams since 2016.  When the series started, Norfolk was struggling...they were ranked around 300 or more for both games.  I remember that first game, because they pressed BG well into the second half before the Falcons pulled away, causing a relative freak-out in the fanbase.  

Anyway, BG won the first two meetings and then Norfolk beat BG during an extremely ill-fated trip to Atlantic City....losing twice while Justin Turner was injured.  Then last November, they beat BG at the Stroh, creating a 2-2 series record.

They have steadily improved since the series started. They broke into the 200s last year with a 24-7 season, a MEAC title and a #16 seed.

So now, things are largely reversed.  The Spartans have a kenpom of 186 and BG is 269.  

They were picked to repeat as MEAC champs.  They are 3-4 on the year, in D1 games, but the losses are to Baylor (15), UCLA (8), Houston (2) and ODU (145).  They have beaten Monmouth (327), Alabama A&M (329) and William & Mary (295).  That's a schedule of extremes.  This is their first D1 home game.

Kenpom gives them a 76% chance to win against us and ESPN is at 81%, which must give them credit for the non-d1 wins.

This is an experienced team.  They started 2 seniors and 3 juniors against Bill and Mary and were without grad Student Kris Bankston, who DNP.  They are #78 in D1 in exerience....BG is #237.

Looking at the numbers....and knowing that on balance Norfolk State has played the #13 schedule...they play a relatively slow pace, at 66 possession per game, while BG plays 70.

On the top end, Norfolk State is struggling to score and defend, but remember their difficult schedule.  Their schedule adjusted numbers are 1.02 on offense and 1.04 on defense....I use the raw numbers because without it the other numbers don't make any sense.

They are a decent shooting team, right at the D1 average.  They take a slightly below average number of 3FGs, and make less than 30%.  Their strength is on 3FGs, where they make 54%, #63 in the country. They do not take good care of the ball, but they are good on the offensive boards and reasonably good at getting to the line, although they only make 68%. BG is not great on the 2FG defense, so that and rebounding will be key.

Norfolk State is known for playing a "floppy" zone defense....google it.  The zone defense, especially the 2-3, has typically been a chamber of horrors for BG over the years, so we will see how the Falcons adjust.  As you can see below, teams are shooting effectively against Norfolk.  They don't force turnovers and are terrible on the defensive boards, which is typical of zone teams.

They allow an average free throw rate...but get this.  Their opponents have only made 60%, a bit of complete luck which has benefitted them.

Teams take 46% of their shots from 3FG against them, again I assume due to the zone, and I'd be surprised if BG doesn't end in that range.  The question is the quality of those shots...if we don't move the zone and just pass around the perimeter and jack up a shot, it could be a long day.

Individually, they are led by Joe Bryant, with 14.9 per game, all games.  He had 24 last time out. He is shooting 49% and 33%, both of which are pretty average.  He also has 34 assists.  He is a 6'1" 5h year senior.  He had 16 and 5 rebounds against BG last year.

 

Their second leading scorer is Kris Bankston, scoring 13 PPG on 67% shooting, almost exclusively 2FGs.  He also leads the team with 7.1 RPG. He DNP in their last game.

Caheim Brown is scoring 12.4 PPG on 44% and 38% shooting. 

Christian Ings is scoring 11.1 PPG, very efficient, 66% and 43%.  He also has 41 assists.

Last note...Norfolk hung 90 on BG last year, shooting 48%, 56% with 9 turnovers.

BG has won a modest 2-straight.  This will be a better test....Norfolk is ranked about where Queens is.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  There is one more D1 game on the schedule, coming Saturday against TN-Martin before 2 non-d1 games and then MAC play starts Jan 3.