The Hated Rockets

 Assuming it happens...Saturday is the big day.  The first BG-UT match up in front of fans in a couiple of years and a really important test for the Falcons.  As the team plays, there's no question they are about what they were picked to be, which is a mid-conference team.  I think there's ability to be more than that, but we have not seen it on the court yet...BG is 1-3 in the MAC.  This is only their second home game, though.  If they can defend home court against the Rockets, it will be a good sign.  And a needed one.

UT is good this year.  Their kenpom is up to 89, due largely to blowout wins over WMU, CMU and NIU--kenpom loves blowouts.  Overall they are 12-4 and 11-4 in D1 games.  In the MAC, they beat WMU and NIU at Savage, @Miami and @CMU and they lost @ Kent.  To date, they have played the second-weakest MAC schedule.

This is the 177th time we have played the Rockets.  BG has won 3 of the last 4 in the series, but 4 of the last 10.

Both teams play at a fast pace....BG a little faster at 74 possessions per game while UT is at 71.  Still, both teams are very comfortable moving up the court.

UT has some really good numbers this year.  They always score well.  For the last 9 seasons, they have never been worse than #103 in the country in defense.  Normally, they are much higher.  Last year they were #19, scoring 1.14 points per possession.  They are often ranked in the 200s, and were #182 last year, which is right in the middle of the nation.  This year they are #122.

The last time they had this kind of combination they went 25-8, won the regular season and lost to NIU in the first round in Cleveland.

As you can see, is performing below UT on both offense and defense.  I'd say the key issue will be for BG to get some stops.  I don't think they can outscore a Rocket team lighting the scoreboard up.

How do the Rockets do it?  They aren't a great shooting team.  At 50.1%, they are just a hair over the national average.  However they take excellent care of the ball, they are great on the offensive boards and they are good at getting to the line, where they make 79%.  

They shoot a heavy 2FG mix.  By being selective, they make 35% of their 3FGs.  They are just below average on 2FGs at 49%.

This is going to be a challenge, because the numbers UT generates to get 1.09 points per possession are pretty much where the BG defense is used to allowing.  BG's going to have to be better across the board, especially on the defensive boards and not fouling.  Coach Huger says we need to be tougher after almost every loss so a rivalry game might be the chance to ramp that up.

So this is the change.  The Rockets are playing really good defense.  They are really hard to shoot against...that's the #60 shot defense in the country.  They allow only 29% on 3FG, which is #44 in the country.  They also defend the 2FG tough.  They don't force turnovers, but they are very good on their defensive boards and they don't give up very many FTs.  BG is already not a great shooting team, but they are going to need to get some to fall and win what should be a very tough battle on the boards on both ends.

They are led by Ryan Rollins, the #2 scorer in the MAC at 19.2 PPG.  He's shooting 51% on 2FG and 34% from 3FG.  That goes with 5RPG and 2 SPG.  

JT Shumate is their next leading scorer, with a very efficient 15 PPG, 55% on 2FG and 52% on 3FG (top in MAC), a team-high 7 RPG and 13 blocked shots for the season.

Setric Millner is scoring 13.6 PPG.  He's shooting 45% and 38%, which is pretty good, and 6 RPG.  Finally, Rayj Dennis, a Boise State transfer, is scoring 11.6 PPG, shooting 54% and 31%, 5.8 RPG and a team-high 58 assists.

They have used the same starters for all games.  They play a very tight rotation, with only 7 players averaging 10 minutes or more.

On paper, the Rockets are clear favorites.  BG has been known to rally for this game--though for much of the team this is their first UT-BG game--and they will need to.  It will take a quality game on both ends of the floor and especially on the boards, to win.