Norfolk State Preview

So, BG has a chance to win their first D1 game tomorrow when they tangle with the Norfolk State Spartans.  Norfolk State is in the MEAC, the lowest rated conference.  They have been in the NCAA Tournament twice, once in 2012 when they upset Missouri as a #15 seed and then last year when they won a play-in and lost to Gonzaga in the first round.  They are picked to finish 2nd in the conference this year.

They have played BG three times.  BG won in 16 and 17 and then lost in December of 2019 at the Boardwalk Battle--playing without Justin Turner, BG played a very forgettable two games, losing to Norfolk and Quinnipiac.

The Spartans are 4-0.  That includes two non-D1 wins....one a non-NCAA win...and then wins against Tennessee State (320) and William & Mary (296).  Their Kenpom is 291.  ESPN power index gives BG a 77% chance to win and kenpom 85%.

They were 17-10 last year, finishing with a kenpom of 210, their best in 5 years.  They returned 2 starters from that team.

One of them is Joe Bryant, a 6'1" G who was pre-season all-MEAC. He's scoring 19.5 in D1 games, shoots 58% from 2FG and has yet to miss a FT.  He's also averaging 7 RPG and had 8 turnovers in the TN State game.

Caheim Brown, a 6'5" JUCO tranfer is scoring 13.5 PPG off  the bench, shooting 46% from 2FG.  Christian Ings, a 6'2" transfer from Rider went wild in their last game, scoring 31 on 10 of 13 shooting.  

They have tried a very small percentage of 3FGs--25% with the D1 average being 38%.  They made 57% of those shots--which is very good.  Defensively, they put a lot of pressure on the ball.  They have forced turnovers on 30% of their opponent's possession.  (Remember the competition. They forced 16 turnovers in the last game with BG).

They have played an up tempo of 72 possessions a game.

Look, BG is favored and should win this game.  For whatever reason, BG has never played well against the Spartans and, of course, lost the last one.  BG is off to a very poor start and will still need to get organized to win this one.  I have no idea about Matheny and Fields, but in any case I think Norfolk State will make this game competitive.  I'd love to see BG organized enough really to put someone away but I will be surprised to see it happen tomorrow.