Gopher Preview

So, the next game up is going to be probably BG's best opponent of the season, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  It will also be a reunion with our old friend PJ Fleck, who is rowing the boat in Minneapolis.

Fleck is having some success.  In 2019 his team was 11-2 and ended up in the top 10 at the end of the year.  It was the most wins at Minnesota since 1904 and only their 2nd 10+ win season in modern football.  They won the Outback Bowl.  They started out last year ranked #19, but ended up with a 3-4 season.  

It is hard to believe but Fleck has been there for 5 seasons.

BG is 1-2 against the Gophers.  In 2007 BG won at Minnesota (think Sheehan to Barnes in the corner of the end zone for the OT win), but BG lost both in 1986 and in 2008 in BG, a memorable game for BG having a Big 10 team in the house.

Phil Steele has them #4 in the Big Ten West.  They return 10 starters on both sides of the ball. 

They are 2-1 on the season.  They opened playing OSU very tough before losing by two touchdowns.  They also beat Colorado 30-0....the Buffs are picked to be #5 in the PAC-12 South.

But the game we are most interested in is the middle game, against Miami.  The Redhawks were MAC Champions in 2019 and trailed against the Gophers by only 1 point with 12 minutes left in the game.  Minnesota ended up winning 31-26.

That's a close call.  Despite having a highly ranked offense, MN had only 4.6 yards per play against Miami and was actually outgained for the contest.  Miami had 2 turnovers and the Gophers none...or that game could have gone the other way.

So, I don't think BG is as good as Miami, but Minnesota did not blow them off the field.

They are a run-oriented team.  Phil Steele has them with the #3 OL in the Big 10 and they have run the ball on 71% of their offensive plays.  Their star back was going to be Mohammed Ibrhaim, but he suffered a season-ending injury in the opener.  Trey Potts has been getting the carries since then and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, which is OK but nothing great.  He averaged 5.2 yards per carry against Miami.

They also have a top-flight QB, Tanner Morgan.  Morgan had committed to WMU and then went to Minnesota with Fleck.  Steele has him the #3 QB in the Big 10.  He is not off to a good start.  He is the #11 QB in the Big 10, based on QBR.  He had 55% completions, 3 TD, 0 INT...and 14.5 per completion which is good.  Could indicate a lower percentage, long pass game plan.  He's been sacked 4 times on 63 attempts, which is 6% and not great.  He had 112 passing yards against Miami.

Their top WR is Texas A&M transfer Dylan Wright, who has 9 catches for over 18 yards per reception.  They have another top WR, Chris Autman-Bell who was injured during camp and was back for the CU game.

On defense, they gave up points to OSU and Miami but shut out Colorado, which helps the overall numbers look good.  Their defense was not predicted to be good--Steele ranked each unit in the bottom four of the Big 10.  Miami ran for only 3.8 against them.  Clearly, this will present a challenge for the Falcons.

Their pass defense is pretty solid.  They are holding teams to 53% completions and held Miami under 50%.  They have 2 picks on the year and have allowed 6 TDs.

For special teams, their kicker is 3-5 with one miss under 30.  They are 11th in the Big 10 in net punting and #9 in kickoffs.

Minnesota is a 31 point favorite.