To the Q we go

So, it's off to the Q.  As we know, because we say it every year, everything in the regular-season is rendered meaningless by these next 3 days.  You have to win 3 games in a row against the best teams in the MAC.  With all 8 teams making the Q, the regular season even means less.  Yeah, seeding matters but not that much.  BG has to beat Akron in the quarters, which isn't great but we'd have had to beat them anyway.  Basically, land in the top 8 and go to work.

BG split with Akron this year.  Akron won by 12 at the Stroh and BG won by 12 at the JAR, breaking a long-standing curse in that venue for BG.  The difference between the games isn't hard to tease out. BG shot 39% in the first game and 52% in the second game.  Akron shot 44% in the first game and 40% in the second game.

In fact, BG has played decent defense against the Zips in both games and made the difference with the shooting in the second game.

Akron is a very well-rounded team. They were 12-6 in MAC play and lost their last 3, one of which was the BG game.  They are 4th in the MAC in offense and defense.  BG is 7th and 5th.

The first thing about the Zips is they are a 3FG focused team.  They lead the MAC and are #15 in the nation in % of 3s taken.  They are only 5th at making them and overall are the #4 shooting team in the MAC.  They are 5th in turnovers, 5th in offensive rebounds and 2nd in getting to the line.  They are 7th in FT shooting.

On defense, they don't force turnovers, but they are #4 defending the shot, 4th on the defensive boards and #5 at preventing FTs.  

As we know, BG's offense is built on low turnovers.  Since Akron doesn't force turnovers, you'd think that looks good.  BG is not a good shooting team...#10 in the MAC and #11 from 3FG.

So, things to look for starts with BG making some shots, as they did at the JAR.

If Akron is making 3s, that's a bad sign.  They were at 25% in each game in their 3-game losing streak.  In fact, they have shot 32% or below in each loss this year.

Their top player is first-team All-MAC and last year's POY Loren Cristian Jackson.  He scored 21 PPG this year, top in the MAC.  Last year he shot 49% on 2FG and 46% on 3FG--which is really good--but this year it was 45% and 34%, which is less efficient.  He was 2nd in assists and #7 in A/T ratio.  He's also #6 in FT%.

He's the only Akron player on the All-MAC teams.  (Enrique Freeman made all-defense.)  

Their only other double-figure scorer was Bryan Trimble, who scored 13 PPG shooting mostly 3FGs at 43%.  Freeman averaged 8.7 RPG which is the #3 total in the MAC.

The first one will be tough.  But all 3 will be.

Last note.  Justin Turner actually left the Miami game at the end with an injury.  We haven't heard anything about his status (no surprise there) but obviously if he can't go or is limited, the odds get much longer for the Falcons.