Hated Rocket Preview

 A couple weeks ago, tonight's game would have been one of the more anticipated games in recent memory.  The Blade was writing about how the home of mid-major basketball was northwest Ohio, etc.

Since then, BG has lost 3 of 4, some of them in rather bad fashion.  I think some of the luster is off the match up.  It remains a very big game for BG, who need a win really badly.  Their next two games are against WMU and NIU and more likely wins, but then their last six games are against four teams they have already lost to, UT and OU, who they beat.

This is a really good UT team.  They are 14-4 with a kenpom of 66.  Their losses are to Bradley (122), Xavier (50), Michigan (3) and Akron.  The Michigan loss was by 20 but the other three were by a total of 6 points.

They are an incredibly good 3 point shooting team.  They are #2 in the MAC and #16 in the country in 3FG%.

That doesn't tell the whole story.  Most of the top 3FG shooting teams don't actually take very many of them.  That makes sense if you think about it, because it means they are probably taking only very high quality shots.  Of the top 20 3FG shooting teams, only 8 take more than 40% of their shots from 3FG.

UT is one of them.  In fact, Toledo shoots 45% of their shots from 3FG, #36 in the nation.  So they are highly accurate in big numbers.

40% of their points come from 3FG, #16 in the nation.

Adding to the problem--BG has been awful defending the 3FG of late.  Ball State, Kent and Miami all shot over 45%.

BG is going to have to do a little better than that, but for a model,  I suspect you are going to see them try what they did with Kent, which was a 78 possession game where both teams ended up in the 90s;  UT actually plays at an average pace, typically.

Lastly, UT also leads the MAC in 2FG%.  They are #3 at not turning it over and #3 on the offensive baords.

UT is actually strong defensively as well.  They are #5 in the MAC.  They are #4 against the shot, #3 at forcing turnovers and #1 at keeping their opponents off the line.  Their only weakness is defensive rebounding, which they are last at.

This is just a complete Rocket team.  The position here has always been the Kowalcyk is a great coach and UT has been lucky to keep him as long as they have.  

They are led by Marreon Jackson, a no-doubt first-team All-MAC player.  He's scoring 17.7 PPG in MAC play, on 41% and 37% shooting.  He is 2nd in FT shooting...95% for all games.  He's 2nd in assists and 2nd in steals...#5 in assists when you factor in the minutes he plays.  This is just a really good player.  He has spent his entire career at UT.

Their 2nd leading scorer is the probable MAC Freshman of the year, Ryan Rollins.  He's a 6'4" G from Macomb, MI.  He's scoring 15.9 PPG on 60% shooting from 2FG and 42% from 3FG, which are just eye popping numbers.  He's the #17 most efficient scorer in the MAC, ahead of even Jackson.  He also leads the team with 5.7 RPG.

Stuart Littleson is also scoring 15 PPG.  Also very efficient, 64% from 2FG and 49% from 3FG.  Both top ten numbers...and the #2 most efficient scorer in the MAC.

JT Shumate is a transfer from Walsh who wasn't declared eligible until the middle of December.  He' s 6'7" and is scoring 12 PPG on 72% shooting from 2FG and 54% from 3FG...those are the best combined numbers in the MAC.

Setric Millner is also scoring 11 PPG.  A JUCO transfer, he is scoring 11PPG on 54% 2FG shooting.

BG is going to have to play their very best game to compete with the Rockets.  BG won both games last year...and there would be no better time for it.