Ready or Not, Here it Comes...

 Well, the 2020 season will kick off on Wednesday.  It will be played under the shadow of COVID--see Trevor Lawrence.  I hope all our players stay healthy through this shortened season and that by next Fall we can have a vaccine or a cure and be back to normal.  With cases spiraling in Ohio right now, it's going to be a long month.  We have Thanksgiving ahead of us.  It will be good to have the diversion of football, but only if it can be safe.  The decision is made, so let's hope it works out.

What to expect of the Falcons?  It's no secret, last year was rough, save one glorious day in the sun at the Doyt.  Glorious.  Still, it was a grim year.  In MAC games, BG was 11th in offense and 12th in defense, with an average margin of defeat of 23 points.  In the worst trough of our program's history, I estimate this to have been BG's least successful team since 1935.  That's not a slam on the people involved, just a picture of where we were.

To give you the conclusion first, we might be a little better this year, but we're still incredibly young, with 60% of the roster with Freshman eligibility.  My guess is that it will be 2022 before we are competitive.  That's not to say we won't improve, because I think we are making progress and I believe in our staff and their commitment.  But, you gotta have good players and a bunch of them and they need to be D-1 tested and that's a long way off.  The effect of the Babers and Jinks hires shows how important head coaches are in college football.

The Blade says our two-deep reflects a "commitment" to our youth movement.  It's mostly necessity.  We're committed to our youth movement for the same reasons that people on the Titanic were committed to lifeboats.

So, starting with the offense.  BG averaged 17 points a game--ranked #11 (All MAC games only).  We were 11th in yards per rush and 11th in passing efficiency.  

There's good reason to think the offense will be better.  It will make a big difference if true.  It starts at the main position, QB.  God bless Grant Loy, a leader and someone who will never pay for a drink in Bowling Green, but he's just not an everydown FBS QB.  He answered the bell when we were desperate for a QB and he fought through a very tough year and I admire him 100%.

Having said that, the hope is that Matt McDonald is a huge step up.  That would be critical.  There's been a lot written--he was a top HS QB until an injury his junior year.  Got in the wrong spot at BC.  He had won the job last year...ahead of Loy and Wade.  I think it will be an improvement but no one has seen McDonald in significant game action since he was in HS.  He could be an improvement or an IMPROVEMENT.

The other addition will be Andrew Clair, who was injured most of last season.  If he can remain healthy, he's a difference-maker for our offense.  Hopefully, the shortened season will help with that.  He and Denley can be effective in the backfield.  Hope for health, we are very thin at that position.

So, add McDonald and Clair and you have Quintin Morris back and you have some playmakers.  

It's hard to imagine that BG has as few high-level WRs as we do, given that it seemed like we recruited a dozen a year for a while.  You have Morris, Motes, Gazarek and Christian Sims rotating at TE, our key position.  Morris we know about and Sims has been effective as well.  Motes is a football player and we love Gazarek, but it's his first year.  

Julian Ortega-Jones had 20 catches last year and is starting at one WR and Tyrone Broden--who had none--is at the other.  Noah Massey and Jahylin Embry (True FR) are behind them on the depth chart.  I think it's fair to say that we are pretty thin at WR.  Morris and Denley were our leading receivers last year and Clair is an effective pass catcher as well.

The issue that will limit the ceiling of the offense is the offensive line.  BG has 32 starts on the o-line.  Joe Ware, at LT, has none and is in his fifth year of the program.  John O'Brian at G and Cameron Stage at C have none.  In the 10-man rotation, three of the players are true FR.  This is an untested and young group and they will be under a lot of pressure.  Clair will need space to run and McDonald will need time to throw.  Playing as much 12 as we will play will help.

As mentioned, BG averaged 17 PPG.  You need 30 to be in the middle of the pack in the MAC.  So we have a ways to go...and that's just to be in the middle.

Having a better offense will help a defense that is even more in a rebuilding phase than the offense.  BG allowed 38 points or more something like that last four years.  Last year, BG allowed 40 PPG, last in the MAC.  We were last in rush defense (6.4 per carry...the next team was 5.6) and tied for last in defensive pass efficiency.  BG's defense has been a hot mess since Elko left.

A few first downs on offense will help, to be sure.

BG has 4 seniors on its defensive depth chart.  Kholbe Coleman and Roland Walder (DE).  Jerry McBride is recovering from injury and is on the roster, but not the two-deep.  (The others are Isaiah Johnson-Mack, the WR transfer from Oregon State who has changed positions and Ty Redding, 1 start).

Meanwhile, there are nine FR on the two-deep, with three of them being true FR.

The top eight defensive linemen have 27 starts among them, with 20 of them being Karl Brooks.  Jordan Murphy is back...he was making progress before an ill-timed injury.

The LBs are little better...Coleman and Roberts have played some, but true SO Darren Anders is the third starter and the backups are 2 True FR and Isaiah Johnson-Mack, who was moved from WR to LB and has not played a game at LB.

The D-backfield is just as young.  Caleb Biggers has played quite a bit and he's starting at one CB.  Problem is the other CB is Diata Burns, a JUCO transfer who was in on 14 tackles his last year of JC ball.  True FR Myles Williamson and Ty Redding (1 start) are behind them.

At S, Jordan Anderson, who played effectively last year as a true FR is starting at one spot and Davion Daniels is at the other position.  He has not played a snap.  Behind them, are Sy Dabney, who played mostly on special teams and Patrick Day, who played in the Akron game.

It's just very thin.

The good news is that there is some consistency of scheme.  After going Eliano-Pelini-VanGorder...at least they are doing the same things this year that they did last year.

Still, any improvement over the 40 PPG allowed last year would be an accomplishment.  The defense needs to get some traction...meaning players here year over year with consistent coaching and player development.  I think we will get that and it will improve, but we're thin.

Special teams should be fine.  Matt Naranjo is a good punter and Nate Needham was respectable at K.

One last note.  The 2nd string QB is listed as LaBronz Davis, which is a little bit of a surprise to me.  He's a R-FR walk on.  I had figured it would be Sparks, Keller or Melton.

I just think we have to be patient.  It's going to take all of five years to get back where we need to be.  But we are doing it right, and if our AD does a better job of hiring coaches than the previous one did, we will have a shot to be consistently competitive.  In the meantime, it's going to be hard to watch once in a while.  If we win 2 games this year, it will be an accomplishment.  Anything more and we are ahead of schedule.