Bronco Preview

So, in the snow, here's come the Broncos.  They are winless in the MAC but there are no off days in the MAC and Hawkins always has his team ready to play.  They battled Buffalo very tough in their last game and they will battle the Falcons tough in this one.

They are 6-11 overall.  Their best win is over Detroit, ranked #197---a team that beat BG, FWIW.  They also lost 3 games to teams ranked 285 or below...it's been a tough season for the Broncos.  By and large, they have been very good.  Hawkins took over in 2003-4, and in the 15 years he's completed there they have been to the NCAAs twice, won 20 games 7 times, and been over .500 in the MAC 11 times, both numbers BG cannot meet over roughly the same period.

In fact, WMU was picked to win the West last season, but injuries to four key players kept them at 9-9.

BG beat them last year at the Stroh, and the teams are 5-5 over the past 10 years.  We will play twice this year.

So, this year, they lost All-MAC player Thomas Wilder to graduation.  Double figure scoring G Reggie Jones transferred to Tulsa.  Their second leading scorer Bryce Moore had surgery and is expected to redshirt.  Brandon Johnson also played almost the whole season injured and had surgery and is out indefinitely, last I saw.

And so, you see why things might be tough.

This will be a physical game.  WMU is typically very physical.  In fact, here's a story about them practicing in football pads.

So, matching them up...actually, you never see this, BG and WMU's season production are perfect matches.  WMU is a poor offensive team and BG is good on defense, and BG is decent on offense and they are decent on defense.

Breaking that down, they are below average shooters who turn the ball over a lot.  That's a rough mix.  They aren't awful on offense, though, and that's because they are very good on the offensive boards and the are very good getting to the line, and they make 70% when they are there.  They take an above-average number of 3FGs, but they are well below average (31.5%).  For a power team, they only make 50.7% of the 2FGs, which is ever so slightly above average.  The boards battle will be key.....BG is #10 in the country in defensive rebounding.  If the Falcons take that away, they have an excellent shot of keeping the WMU offense in check.

When BG has the ball, you have a team shooting about average against a team defending about average.  The key is the WMU does not force turnovers (among the 10 worst in the country) and is about average on the defensive boards.  They do keep their opponents off the line, (top 50 nationally) and it all adds up to a subpar defense.

They allow 36% on 3FGs, which is subpar and they are slightly above average against the 2FG.

Michael Flowers is their leading scorer at 16.2 per game.  He's not proficient overall on this FGs (43%) but he's shooting 38% from 3FG, which is good, and adds 4.9 rpg and 3.8 over 3.1 A/T.

Thier main big man is 7-footer Seth Dugan, who seems to have played in Kalamazoo forever.  He scored 14.8 per game on 54% shooting to go with 8.3 rebounds and a blocked shot per game  Josh Davis also scores in double figures at 13.7 PPG, also with 6.2 rpg. 

Beyond the defensive battle mentioned above, another key is how the post play goes.  Both teams offer a traditional 5 with productivity on the inside.  Wiggins has been struggling on offense for three games under MAC-quality defensive scrutiny and I would be surprised to see WMU do anything else.  He either needs to be able to be strong with the ball or kick it out on the double team.  BSU said they wanted to make BG in a jump shooting team and it more or less work and it hamstrung BG, so they'll need an answer to that.

As well as BG is playing at home, you'd expect to win this one.  However, WMU is battling and we're not going to win forever.  This is one of those games that might not be pretty, but you have to figure out a way to win.