Western Carolina Preview

Next up for BG on an odd "fan appreciation" 1 pm Friday game...the Catamounts of Western Carolina.  They are new to us, so here's some info on them

The school is located in Cullowhee, NC, 6000 people.  It has 11K students, and it would be difficult to find a better descriptor for it than "Western Carolina."

Here's a cherry-picked sampling of WCU alumni:

Gerry Austin, NFL Referee

Geoff Collins, incoming Coach at Georgia Tech

David Sedaris, goof

Louis Ducruet, grandson of Grace Kelly

On November 29, 1980, Western Carolina's Ronnie Carr made the first intercollegiate three-point field goal, in a game against Middle Tennessee State University, a game WCU won 77–70.  The ball he used is on display at the Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, Massachusetts.

They are coached by Mark Prosser, who is the son of the late Skip Prosser.

Prior to that, they were coached by Larry Hunter for 13 years.  Hunter also coached at OU.  (Tragically, Hunter died within a couple months of retiring).

They made the1996 NCAA Tournament

They have had four straight losing seasons and this year were picked to finish 9th out of 10 in the Southern Conference, the 14th ranked conference.  (MAC currently #9)

This year, they are 3-10, with one non-D1 win.  Other wins are Jacksonville (287) and @UNC-Asheville, (344).  They lost to Wake Forest by 7, took a good Furman team into double OT, and lost by 3 to a good Charleson team...also lost to High Point (224) by 27 last Saturday.  Lost on Wednesday @Iowa, 78-60.  Their kenpom ranking is 306. 

According to Blue Ribbon, Prosser is looking to play the Pack Line at WCU.  That's the defense played at Virginia...the idea is that it's man to man, but there's a line inside the 3-point line and if you're off the ball you don't go outside the line.  It is designed to prevent dribble penetration and pack the middle, which could be an interesting challenge for BG...on the other hand, as we will see below, WCU is really struggling on defense.

Looking at the numbers, I always say that last place teams have last place stats.  As you can see, WCU is thriving on neither end of the floor.  Both teams are below average on all four dimensions...currently, D1 teams are scoring at 1.03 PPP.

The numbers inside that are interesting.  First, WCU plays an up-paced game, essentially 72 possessions per game, right where BG is.  That's unusual with the Pack Line defense, but Prosser told Blue Ribbon before the season that he is convinced you can do it.  Anyway, the interesting thing is that they shoot the ball very well, they are a decent rebounding team and they get to the line.

Their offense is dragged down by being second-to-last in the nation in turnovers and 5th from the bottom in FT shooting.

They shoot a lot of 3s.  In total, 47% of their shots are 3s, the D1 average is 39%.  They are decent at making them, too, at 35%.  BG has struggled to defend the 3 and they will need to be ready to do that Friday.

Flipping it around, they are really struggling on defense...so maybe the system isn't coming together yet.  They are easy to shoot against and don't get turnovers, a bad combination.  They are good on the boards but foul quite a bit.  They allow 58% made 2FGs, which is #330 in the country.  Teams are penetrating...scoring 55% of their points on 2FGs.

Individually, they are a young team, returning only one starter from last year.  Their leading scorer is JUCO transfer Carlos Dotson at 13 PPG, 8.9 RPG and shooting 58%.  At 6'7" and 265, he's a two-gapper as well.  SO G Matt Halvorsen is also scoring 13 PPG, but it's rough, shooting 40% and 36%, while leading the team in assists.

Fr G Kameron Gibson is scoring 12 PPG, shooting 47% and 42%.  He's from Cincinnati. 

This is a game BG should win.  They are playing well at home.  They do need to defend the 3 and keep WCU from getting hot and avoid getting into a jump shooting contest, but if they get stops they should be able to win this game.