Green Bay Preview

Hey, look.  Men's basketball is back.  After a long break following a disastrous outing, BG is on their way to Green Bay to play the Phoenix.  This is a return game from last year at the Stroh, when Green Bay beat BG 77-61 in the middle game of a three-day Fracktival.

This is a very different Green Bay team from that one.  They return only one player who started even one game last year.  They lost 6 seniors (all of whom played) and two transfers on top of it.  So, this Phoenix team was slated for a rebuilding mode, but still picked for 5th in the Horizon.

They are 5-6 this year, but they have three wins against non D1 opponents and one against Florida A&M, one of the 10 lowest ranked teams in D1.  Their best win was over Eastern Illinois in Green Bay, 59-57.  EIU is ranked a little ahead of BG this year.  For the losses, they lost by 20 to NIU in DeKalb, @Mississippi, @Missouri, @Indiana State and at home to Stetson (#302) by 12.

So here is what we have.  Green Bay is really struggling to make baskets.  That right there is a rough number.  BG is really struggling to prevent baskets.  That is also a rough number.  So we shall see.  On the other side, BG has been decent on offense and Green Bay has been less than decent on defense, so that should be pretty even.  The question is, does BG allow Green Bay to find its offensive groove, as happened in the San Jose and Evansville game.

The Phoenix do not do anything well on offense.  They are among the 30 worst shooting teams in D1 to date.  They make only 41% of 2FGs (among the 20 worst) and 33% from 3FG.  Now, whether they find their market against the BG defense, as seen below, will be key.  They also turn the ball over a lot, don't get many offensive boards and get to the line less than average.  When they do get to the line, they are very good at 77%.

When the Falcons have the ball, we see that BG is actually not a great shooting team.  BG gets its offensive efficiency by taking care of the ball, being decent on the offensive boards and getting to the FT line.  GB does force some turnovers and really keeps their opponents off the line, but they aren't great at defending the shot or on the defensive boards.

Individually, they have only one double figure scorer, which is Khalil Small, who is their sole returning player from last year.  He's scoring 16 ppg on 45% and 46% shooting, so he's efficient.  He also leads the team with 6.4 RPG.  Kamer Hankerson is scoring an inefficient 9.9 and TJ Parham is scoring 8.9 per game.

Three notes. 

First, GB is coached by Linc Darner.  He's the real deal, won a DII national title.

Second, they will also add Sandy Cohen III, a Marquette transfer who is eligible starting with this game for the first time.

Third, based on a Blade story, Derek Koch sounds doubtful to play.  They are trying to make sure he is healthy for conference play.  He would play this week or next week against Lourdes, but it didn't sound likely to me.

This is a close game.  Yes, GB is not great but neither are the Falcons and the game is on the road.  It would be great to see BG bounce back after the worst defeat in 10 years.  They've had a chance to work on the defensive side of the ball.  Anyway, will be interesting to see how it turns out.