MAC Coaches Poll and My Game by Game

The time has come to put together my game-by-game predictions for 2015.  In the meantime, however, the MAC has released its poll of Coaches in the pre-season.  The results are pretty interesting.

First, just like the media, the Coaches believe BG will win the East for the third straight season.  In fact, only 2 coaches voted for another team, and those votes went to UMass.  (The Minutemen return a lot of guys are their folks are quietly confident out in Amherst).  You can see the rest...OU, Akron and Umass forming a group at the next level, and then Buffalo, Miami and Kent bringing up the rear.  (Kent..damn...how fast things can change.  Or return to normal.)

In the West, the Coaches are narrowly picking NIU over UT, which is different from the media.  That will certainly be the battle to watch.  WMU is third, and those could easily be the best 3 teams in the MAC.  Anyway, from there Ball State, CMU and EMU fill it out.

2015 MAC Head Football Coaches Preseason Poll
Team (First Place Votes) Points
MAC East Division
1. Bowling Green (11) 89
2. Ohio 64
3. Akron 60
4. UMass (2) 57
5. Buffalo 43
6. Miami 30
7. Kent State 21

MAC West Division
1. Northern Illinois (7) 70
2. Toledo (5) 67
3. Western Michigan (1) 55
4. Ball State 36
5. Central Michigan 32
6. Eastern Michigan 13

OK, on to the Falcons.  Let's take a look at this game by game.

I am a little less optimistic than the coaches and the media.  I am very concerned about BG's ability to get team's off the field on defense and based on what we know now, I think that limits the upside.  I'm picking BG to go 7-5, bowl eligible, and 5-3 in the MAC.  Last year, that was good enough but this year I think Akron beats BG out, as they have a much easier cross over schedule.

Having said that, things do have the potential to break right for BG.  All three of the Big East games are at home, and if BG is playing well and getting any kind of dividend from stronger defensive coaching, they could easily run the table in the East again.  At 6-2, it would be back to Ford Field.  Of course, all of that includes a win over UT, which has been a barren landscape now for far too long.

Best case...BG puts it all together early, pulls a Dino-in-EIU-year-2 and loses only to Tennessee and once in the MAC for a 10-2 year.

Worst case, BG loses at Purdue and against Toledo (or Ohio) from what I have here and finishes 5-7.

Sat, Sep 5 @ Tennessee LOSE

Even on a neutral field, Tennessee, which is on the upswing has too much talent for the Falcons and more speed. Joshua Dobbs will be a handful for the BG defense.

Sat, Sep 12 @ Maryland LOSE

Maryland is in the lower echelon of the Big 10 and this is a winnable game for BG. The game is away and my guess is that the Falcons are still putting it together and don't win this one. Protip here: if BG wins, it is a very good sign for the Babers project.

Sat, Sep 19 vs Memphis   WIN

This is going to be a very difficult game. They have a high-powered QB and lineup and this team will be a handful for the Falcons. With a big crowd at the Doyt and after two tough losses, I see BG breaking through here.

Sat, Sep 26 @ Purdue   WIN

Hey, BG has never been beaten in West Lafayette and the high speed attack does it again.  This is game 4, after all.  BG gets the upset on the road.

Sat, Oct 3 @ Buffalo   WIN

I like Buffalo to exceed expectations and I love the hire of Lance Leipold.  This could be a shoot-out, with both teams sporting young defenses and I see BG having the better of the two offenses, though it is close.

Sat, Oct 10 Massachusetts   WIN

I'm glad we aren't playing these guys in Amherst.  This team lost a bunch of close games last year and if they have figured out how to win, this could be a very big game.  BG has struggled with UMass, in addition, but I think BG gets a win.

Sat, Oct 17 Akron   LOSE

This is another big one, matching a high powered offense against a very strong defense.  I think Akron is a touch matchup for BG, with its very strong defense and more traditional style offense.  I think Akron wins this one at the Doyt.

Sat, Oct 24 @Kent State  WIN

Kent is back to being Kent and BG wins this one.

Wed, Nov 4 Ohio  WIN

Here's the final big East game.  This is the one BG is absolutely going to have to have to stay in contention. BG struggled with OU last year in Athens, but the Bobcats did not move the ball very much at all.  With fingers crossed for a good performance, I see this game keeping BG in the race.

Wed, Nov 11 @Western Michigan  LOSE

BG lost to WMU last year as the Broncos rowed their way into the win column.  They are too high powered for the Falcons in K-Zoo.

Tue, Nov 17 Toledo  WIN

This is one the Falcon fans have to be pointing at, after a long losing streak to the Rockets.  Tim Beckman has left and lost his next job since BG beat the Rockets.  This is one people will be hungry for.  On paper, UT is stronger than BG, but I'm going to follow my heart on this one and say the Falcons get a long-awaited win over their arch-rivals.

Tue, Nov 24 @Ball State  LOSE

Last year's Ball State game might have been the most disappointing of the season for BG.  Ball State finished fast and are very well coached.  If things unfold as they are listed above, BG could be playing for a division title in this game.  If BG has seen any improvement at all on defense during the year, this game could be a win but at this juncture, I don't see the Falcons winning in Muncie in November.