OU Redux

So, with its back to the wall, the BG Falcons head to Athens with words like "over-achieving" following them the whole way.  BG has lost 2 in a row at home but won 2 road games the week before that, so maybe bizarro world mojo will set in.

Early in the MAC season BG played OU at the Stroh and the Falcons won by 15.  OU is not having an OU-season.  They are 9-16 and 4-10.  They are 3-4 at home in MAC play, with wins over Buffalo, Akron and EMU at the Convo, while losing to UT, CMU, Kent and NIU at home...so really one one bad home loss.  Their only MAC road win is @Ball State.

They are also on a 4-game losing streak.

The first time the two teams played, it was a perfect storm.  BG scored 1.13 PPP and held OU to .89 points per possession.  BG shot well (44%/38%) and held OU to poor shooting (33% and 36%), while protecting its own defensive boards and keeping OU off the FT line to get the win.

College Basketball

Holmes double-doubled at 18 and 12, Denny had 11 and 9 and Anthony Henderson scored 10.  Ryan Taylor had 16 for OU and BG did a nice job against Ndour, who shot 4 for 10 but had 9 rebounds.

The following stats are all MAC games only.  OU is where they are in the standings because they are 11th in offensive and defensive efficiency.  Prior to the last two games, BG was typically shutting down good offensive teams and scoring on the other end, a trend that was reversed against Miami and Buffalo.  BG needs to play good defense and lock down a poor defensive team...and then take advantage of an ineffective defense.  Sort of like the formula from the first game, except we're hoping to just win by 1.

Here's how that battle matches up.  OU is a poor shooting team with below average turnovers, way below average offensive rebounding and FT shooting.  This is a good matchup, albeit on the Convo floor and BG needs to assert itself.

Having said that, if BG does not play better offense there is no way to play good enough defense to win.  OU is poor defending the shot, doesn't force turnovers and is ineffective on the defensive boards.  BG simply has to get people other than Richaun Holmes making shots....or they have to feed the post on every possession.  This is also a good matchup for the Falcons and they need to deliver on it.

They are led by Maurice Ndour and Bean Willis.  Ndour is scoring 14 a game on 49% shooting and is 2nd in the MAC with 8.4 rebounds per game.  He also block 2.4 shots per game.  Willis is a PG and scoring 14.1 per game.  He is not efficient--he shoots 40% and 36%.  He's also only getting 2.9 assists against 2.8 turnovers, so he has struggled in MAC play.

Antonio Campbell is scoring 10.6 PPG on 47% shooting and 7 rebounds a game.

BG really needs a win.  OU has been capable at home and on a losing streak.  This one has got me very nervous.  BG has been pretty resilient and this will be big test for that.  The most important thing BG can do that they have not been doing is make a few shots.