NIU Preview

So, coming off a loss at UT, BG now welcomes NIU to the Stroh Center.  BG has tended to bounce back from defeats, and I would expect the same to happen against the Huskies, where BG is a 10 point favorite.

NIU is 8-9 and 2-4.  They did not have any real quality wins in the non-conference.  Best win was probably UC-Riverside.  They had a bad loss to Dartmouth.  They have won @OU and beat Akron in DeKalb--and they have lost to Kent, Buffalo, Eastern and Miami.  Worse yet, they are 2-4 after playing 4 of the first six at home.  This does not portend well for the remainder of the year.

The win over OU was their only road win of the year.  The basic match up shows us that NIU is actually a very poor offensive team.  At .99 points per possession they are 11th in the MAC.  Their defense is good, but BG out performs them both offensively and defensively.  Combined with home court, this is what 10 point favorites are made of.

NIU is a very interesting offensive team.  They are the worst shooting team in the MAC and they turn the ball over a lot as well.  On the other hand, they are the best team in the MAC in offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line....and #13 and #8 respectively in the entire NCAA.  So you have a team crashing the boards like mad and getting to the line but still missing a ton of shots.  They shoot 69% which is in the middle of the MAC.

Based on the chart below, the offensive boards looks like it will be a great battle and it will be interesting to see if BG can keep NIU off the free throw line.

Flipping things around, we see the NIU does a really poor job defending the shot--even worse than BG typically shoots.  They do create turnovers effectively--first in the MAC, and then match up with BG pretty well on the offensive boards and in getting to the line.  The opportunities for BG are to have a good night shooting against a poor defense and then take really good care of the basketball.

Individually, the Huskies are led in scoring by Darrell Bowie.  He's a 6'7" JR who scores an inefficient 12 PPG, shooting 40% and adding 6.7 RPG and subtracting a shocking 3 TO per game.  Aaric Armistead scores 11.2 PPG but is also inefficient, shooting 41% and 37%...also 4.9 RPG.  Anthony Johnson is scoring 9.9 PPG and shooting 41%.  If you want to know why their offense is so inefficient, it starts right there, with the top 3 scorers being that inefficient.

Senior Jordan Threloff--6'9"--averages 7.7 rebounds.  Finally, Jr PG Travon Baker has 3 assists over 1.9 turnovers.

This is Mark Montgomery's 4th season at NIU and he has found it slow going.  The Huskies did beat BG twice last year, including a 45-36 peach basket special at the Stroh in one of the season's low points.  This is one BG should win, but these guys did beat Akron (albeit in DeKalb).  I expect BG to come out hungry after the loss and win this one.