25 Questions that are CAT 4

Hurricanes in Tulsa?
Here is how it happened.

What is their body of work?

They are on a roll.  11-3 last year, C-USA champs and won the Liberty Bowl.  They have double digit wins in 4 out of the last 6 seasons.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

This is a young team.  They have only 18 Jrs and Srs on the two-deep and 17 freshman.

Who are their returning statistical leaders?

Trey Watts was the 11th ranked all-purpose runner last year in the FBS.

What was their turnover ratio?

They are not bad at +3

Offense:

How is their QB Play?

It is good.  The starter is Cody Green, who started his career at Nebraska.  He's built like the guy from Virginia Tech last year.  He was not terribly effective last year--54% completion and a 17/11 ratio on limited attempts.  He is a threat to run, with 382 yards and 4 TDs last year.  Beyond this, he is ranked the #3 QB in C-USA by Phil Steele, so it will be interesting to see how he has developed since last season.

What was their scoring and yards per play?

Last year they scored 35 points a game, which is right where San Jose State was.  They average 5.5 yards per play, which is actually not great.

Can they run the ball?

This was their calling card last year and could be this year.  They were 9th in the nation in rushing yards per game last season.  They graduated a guy with 24 freaking rush touchdowns, but both Trey Watts (6.0 ypc) and Ja'Terian Douglas (6.8 ypc were highly effective).  Watts is the son of OK QB JC Watts.  Phil Steele also ranks them as having the best O-line in the conference.

Do they pass the ball?

Last year, they were 104th in passing efficiency.  Their top 3 WRs are all back, each of them with over 12 yards per reception and one of them with 16.9 (Robertson).  The question mark is Green and whether he will be more efficient and less INT prone than last year.

How is their run/pass balance?

They are one of the most run heavy teams in FBS.  They ran the ball last year on 59% of their plays and I would expect that to continue this year.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

Last year they converted at 38%, which is not great.  With their running game and line, you would expect to have a lot of makeable 3rd downs.

Do they score in the red zone?

They make 5 trips per game, which is very good, and they score 5 points per trip, which is good if not great.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They allowed 9 sacks, which is very good.  It is 3.6% of attempts.  I suspect that's partly have a tough QB to bring down, partly o-line and partly I would expect them to protect well tomorrow as well.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They allowed only 23 points per game and 4.9 yards per play last year--both very good numbers.  They only have 3 starters back from last year.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They did last year, but the entire d-line graduated, so how well they do this year is an open question.  Steele has them with the 8th best d-line in C-USA.

Can they be passed on?

Last year they were 31st in FBS in pass efficiency defense.  They return only one starter from the backfield, however, and they have two FR on the two-deep at one of the CB positions.  (NOTE:  That starter, DeMarco Nelson, is now ineligible)

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They do, they allow 36% first downs, which was in the top 1/4 last year.  This is something that will need to be watched for.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They were deadly in the red zone.  They allowed only 3 trips per game and 4.22 points per trip.  They will be hard pressed to get that kind of production this year.

Do they pressure the QB?

Well, last year they had an absolutely sick 53 sacks, 10 % of opponent sack plays.  Those linemen are gone, but their pass rush last season was ridiculous.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Their punter is back. He was good if not great last season, with a 34.7 yard net.

Punt Return?

Trey Watts at work here.  Last season, 7 per return and 1 TD.

Placekicking?

Daniel Schwartz was highly recruited and showed a big leg last year as a FR, but he left school during the spring.  Their kicker now went to Air Force originally, attended OK but did not play football, and has yet to try a FG in a game.

Kickoff?

Opponents start on the 27....they had 39 touchbacks and this kicker is back.

Kickoff Return?

Very strong.  Watts again.  28 yards per return and 1 TD.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

This dude is hilarious.  When he
visits a school, the kids get nightmares.

This game reminds me of the last game we played...against San Jose State.  They are a very solid offensive unit, and while I think our defense can hold them below their average, I do think they are going to get their points.  Which means the game will be decided on the offensive side of the ball for BG.  Tulsa has question marks and a lot of new starters on defense.  BG has its guys back on offense and will need to produce on offense.  It has to be more than a game management situation.

On a neutral field, Tulsa is a clear favorite.  But, I think we will have an electric crowd and atmosphere out there tomorrow and that is going to be a huge help.  I picked us to win the game, and I'm hopeful that those factors will be the difference.