25 Arch-Rival Questions

What is their body of work?

You have to think they're pretty happy.  They had four losing seasons, and worst case will finish 6-6 this year and have a good shot at a bowl game.  They have a nice win at Purdue, but a disappointing loss to Wyoming at home.  They won at Ohio U and at WMU in back to back weeks, but can't be happy with the results of the NIU game.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

25

Do they have players in the National Top 20 rankings?

Eric Page is #8 in receptions per game and #16 in kickoff returns.  Dan Molls is 11th (tied) in tackles and Archie Donald is 16th.

What is their turnover ratio?

They are +8 for the season, a critical part in their turnaround.  (Interesting point, though.  The ratio is good on the getting and not giving sections.  They have, however, forced 26 turnovers and BG has forced 28.  But UT has given up only 18.

Offense:

How is their QB Play?

Austin Dantin was the starter and he is injured, so Terrance Owens has stepped in.  Owens competed with Dantin for the job in the spring, and has had a higher efficiency rating since he came in.  He has completed a lower % of passes, but has thrown only one pick, which accounts for the rating.  He is less of a runner than Dantin was.  I saw the NIU game, and he looked pretty good to me.

What is their scoring and yards per play?

They are 5th in scoring and 5th in yards per play (tied).

Can they run the ball?

They are sixth in yards per rush, 4.1

Do they pass the ball?

You might be sensing a theme here.  They are 6th in passing efficiency and in passing yards per game.  They are 4th (4th!!) in completion percentage.

How is their run/pass balance?

They are committed to running the ball.  They have run the ball on 57% of their sack-adjusted plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

Besides the turnovers, this is the next most critical advantage they have.  They are 3rd in the MAC at 39%

Do they score in the red zone?

They score 4.8 points per red zone trip, which is right on the NCAA average.  33 trips in 10 games is nothing to write home about.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They are OK.  They are 5th in the MAC with 19 sacks, but given the (relatively) low number of passing attempts, that is good but not great.  In reality, they are probably 6th. :)

In the end, this is a team that on a play-by-play basis is in the middle of the conference, but is getting turnovers and converting on 3rd downs to make the most of it.  Given how (#119) Miami ran the ball against BG, UT has to be considered a threat to rack up big yards.  If they do, long night at the Glass Bowl.

Defense:


Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

Here they are 10th in scoring defense and 7th in yards per play.  (Note, this includes that big blow out against NIU, which probably drives the average up a little bit.)

Do they defend the run effectively?

Again...middle of the pack. 6th in yards per carry allowed.

Could they be passed on?

They are 10th in passing yards allowed but 7th in pass efficiency. They allow a high completion percentage but they lead the MAC in interceptions, which is bringing their efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are in the middle of the pack here, too....5th

Do they defend in the red zone?

They have given up 40 trips, which is a lot.  But, there were 10 complete stops.  Their per trip average .s 4.6 which is slightly better than the national average.

Do they pressure the QB?

They have done well getting pressure, and are 5th in the MAC in sacks.

The bottom line here is that this an improving defense.  They are pretty than last year's defense, which was very porous.  Still, they are not a great defense and you can move the ball on them.  It would be nice to see the Falcon offense execute against them.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Toledo is 8th in net punting. They have been blocked once but have not allowed a return TD.

Punt Return?

This is not a strong point.  As dangerous a player as he is, Page has not had much impact on punt returns.  UT is last in the MAC.

Placekicking?

They have used two kickers.  Bill Claus kicked against NIU.  He is 3-6 for the year with 2 misses inside 40 and a long of 38.

Kickoff?

This is not a strong point.  They are 9th and teams start on the 30.

Kickoff Return?

Well, if punt returns are not a key part of Page's game, kickoff returns are a strength.   He is 2nd in the MAC and has a TD.  UT as a team leads the MAC.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

Well, this is a rivalry game.  On one side, you have BG who has a chance to salvage some part of its season with a win.  Also, they played "bad" football last week...the last time they played that poorly was the OU game, and they did respond well the next week.  Finally, there is no pressure on the Falcons...they are clear underdogs.

On the Rockets side, they have lost 3 games in a row in the rivalry.  They need one more win to reach 7 wins, which is the traditional MAC level needed for a bowl game.  You have to think that their players who are facing BG for the last time want to leave with one win.  They are at home and coming off a tough loss.  Lots of things that seem to work in their favor.