East Preview and Prognostications (Stark Injury)

OK, so we're getting close here, and it is time to take the humbling exercise of looking at each division in the MAC and thinking about how things are likely to turn out. On these types of things, I am often wrong but never in doubt, so here we go.

Any thoughtful analysis of the East has to admit the following: any team except Miami could conceivably win the division. Every team has flaws or is filling major gaps in its lineup, or has a new Coach, etc. And, the division was weak last year. You could write a scenario for any team to win. Maybe this is a disclaimer masquerading as analysis, but there it is.

Looking at each team, we find that there are clear flaws with each.

• Temple: Offense, QB graduated
• Ohio: Stagnant Offense
• Akron: Very poor defense
• Buffalo: new QB, losses on Oline, defense a question mark
• Kent: Replacing QB
• BG: Big losses on defense, new coach
• Miami: Big questions on defense, new coach

With that in mind, I am first going to pick my expected order of finish. Then, I am going to write a short capsule for each team explaining my reasoning and how they could win the East.

My projected order of finish:

1. Temple
2. Ohio
3. Kent
4. Bowling Green
   
5. Akron
6. Buffalo
7. Miami

Reasoning/dissembling/spinning/outright rationalization of guesses follows:

Temple:

I think Temple is the most likely team to win the East. They nearly won it last year and, you could argue, should have. This team is learning how to win. And, they have an excellent defense. In fact, their defense is probably the strongest unit in the East. Yes, their offense is weak, but I think their defense can cover it. In a flawed division, I like this team best. (They also play EMU and Ball State along with Toledo on cross-over, a relatively favorable schedule).

Ohio:

This is the team Phil Steele has winning the East. They have a lot back from a team that was a hair's breadth from being better (though, on reflection it seems like everyone in the East can say that.) They have a strong defense, and if you have to choose a team with a good offense and no defense over a team with good defense and no offense, I take the latter everytime. A solid defense is just more predictable. OU is also strong at QB.

Kent:

I picked Kent as my sleeper team in the MAC this year. There are a couple reasons for that. There are really two knocks on Kent this year. First, they're Kent. And second, their elusive, slippery-as-a-wet-bar-of-soap QB, Julian Edelman is off in an NFL training camp. Their new QB filled in for Edelman for two games a couple years ago and seemed to do pretty well, and for that reason, I think they may surprise. They have a very solid weapon in Eugene Jarvis and a decent defense as well.

Bowling Green:

The Falcons are coming off a season where they should have won the East, but didn't. Lots of tools are back on offense, but the defense is virtually all-new, especially on the front seven. Having said that, the offense has lots of tools back, and if they have assimilated the Clawson offense then that unit is a big strength. For the Falcons to win, the offense is going to have to be absolutely unstoppable. They are going to have to score points and eat clock. They are going to have to be able to kill clock win winning. If the Falcons can get leads and make their opponents one-dimensional, they could have a shot at winning the East.


Akron:

Akron is very similar to Bowling Green. Strong on the offensive side of the ball, veteran QB, big question marks on defense. The only reason I rank them behind BG is because I think BG has the better veteran QB. That being said, for Akron to win they need the same things Bowling Green needs. Despite winning the MAC recently, I would say this program has generally underachieved. They are opening a new Stadium, though I doubt that factors into this at all.

Buffalo:

I have said a lot about Buffalo, and I don't have much more to say. They barely won last year, lost their QB, have a suspect defense and a lousy offensive line and have now lost their star RB to injury. Yes, Roosevelt is back, but this team can't hope to get as many breaks as they got last year. Secondly, the atmosphere in Buffalo has been so self-congratulatory that it hard to imagine they are really preparing for this season with the hunger that it takes to win. I see a big fall for the Bulls.

Miami:

You know, even Miami has a chance to compete. They do have some skill on the offensive side of the ball. At the same time, they were dreadful on defense and lost their only good players, and it is hard to imagine their offense being good enough to overcome a really porous defense.

Update: Note via comments that Bull Run (a Buffalo Blog) is now saying that James Starks, Buffalo's star RB is out for the season. The writeup above has been updated, although I didn't move Buffalo below Miami....obviously, they are now missing two of their top offensive players from last season.