Who do we think we are?

Well, the Pre-MAC season is over, and we've had a chance to get an idea what kind of team we have. Here are some quasi-organized and (as always) uneducated opinions about our team.

First, I think the team is much improved. There is still some work to do, but this is a better team then last year's. I think a good goal for our team is a winning season, and a top four seed in the MAC tourney. Given the softness of the MAC this season, I see no reason that these goals cannot be achieved. They are absolutely not givens, and we could easily not reach them, but I think those would be nice things for our guys to do.

What parts of our game are improved.

Well, first and foremost, the defense. This is the part of our team's identity that has clearly evolved. We are going to get stops...look for low shooting %s as a strategy to win. This is something I think we can do, and, when you defend well, you are always in the game. Our defensive efficiency is much better...last year we were 1.04 points per possession and 203rd in the country, while to date we are .986 points per possessiion and 138th in the nation.

This has come from two key places. The effective FG% (one that accounts for 3 point shots being worth more than 2 point shots) has called from 46.7% to 44%, and I believe is even stronger against MAC-like opposition, factoring out Minnesota and OSU. Also, we are not getting 67% of the rebounds on our defensive end, against only 64% last year.

These may seem like small differences, but the game of basketball is played on a razor's edge, despite the appearence of limitless possessions and opportunities. To illustrate, last year, the rebounding % above was 293rd in the nation. This year's, just 10% better, is 157th.

A second thing that is much improved is depth. With Erik Marschall back, and two freshmen getting some minutes, we can reasonably play 10 deep on most nights. Nate Miller and Chris Knight, arguably our two best players, are coming off the bench. Someone asked coach the other night if we were going to tighten the rotation for MAC play, and he said that we want to protect our depth and use it to our advantage.

The depth and the defense have improved significantly, and any perception that we can compete in the MAC is based on those two items. For whatever it is worth, our offense is ever so slighly stronger than last year. Our efficiency and effective field goal percentage has been stable, but we hvae turned the ball over only 20.5% of the time, down from 22.7% last season. Again, this small difference is worth the difference betweeen 272nd place to 155th place in D1 hoops. Also, we are getting 36.2% of the rebounds on the offensive side, and that's 81st in the nation.

The offense clearly is not where it needs to be. I know under our philosophy that it is not the priority that defense is, but it just seems like we go in long scoring droughts, have no one but Nate Miller who can create scoring chances AND finish near the basket, and we miss a ton of "zero footers." It would be great to see us convert those offensive rebounds into easy baskets, since we work so freaking hard for the rest of them.

There are a couple of other items of concern. Fouls, and everything related to them, continue to hurt us. We have been shooting in the high 60's from the line this season, but it has been streaky, and we don't get to the line very much. Only about 30 teams in D1 hoops score a smaller portion of their points from the line than we do.

Meanwhile, while I think it has improved (without actual numbers), the defense has a tendency to foul too much. (We are 127th in fouls, last year we were 256th). Teams are scoring 25.9% of their points against us from the line, and that is 10th in the country. It is also significantly worse than last year.

In every game except Wayne State and Eastern Illinois, we have seen a net loss in points from the free throw line. In half of our losses, the free throw deficit is more than the difference between the two teams.

Finally, we have yet to win on the road this year, and we won only one MAC game on the road last year, so we're on a pretty poor streak since the middle of last year. We had some pretty winnable road games, and we should be doing better. I'm not sure how much of this is psychological and how much is real, but we have got to get over the hump on this. You can't get over .500 if you don't win on the road, and we're going to have to learn how to get this fixed.

Maybe one road win will do it. I don't know. Winning on the road is what seperates bad teams from good teams, and it will for us, too. Our style (controlled, defensive) should adapt itself well to the road, but so far, it has only adapted itself to blowing some big leads and getting beat.

I think the program is on the right track. We are better than last year, and it would be great to see our guys get a winning season as a reward, and a win at the Q, too. The MAC is soft. Any team that can consistently execute can succeed.