FalconBlog--Triumphs and Trials in the BGSU Falcon Nation

What does .500 look like?

What does the post-season look like?

We can use the pythagorean method to answer these questions.

Last year, the Reds scored 750 runs, and had an ERA of 5.19. We're going to forget for the moment that the Reds were 11 games above their projected record last season, and just pretend like we are starting from even.

Let's say the Reds increase their offense by 6.7% and score 800 runs. Its not an unbelievable total, especially for this team, healthy. Six NL teams scored that many last year. We should at least get to that total.

Now, the defensive side of the equation. The NL ERA last year was 4.30, let's say we get there. If we do, the Reds would have shaved almost a run off the ERA. Maybe it can be done, especially since the bullpen ERA was as bad as it was and should get a lot better, and the starting ERA should get a little better. A 4.30 ERA with unearned runs added back at 4.5% (last year's rate), means giving up 728 runs.

800 runs for, 728 against equals 89 wins, which is three below last year's wildcard total.

More realistically, let's say we hit something between last year and the league average--a more reasonable advance at 4.70. That's 795 runs allowed, and a .500 season. Note this, its what we're going to track for the year. I think this is our path to .500.

Let's say the offense really goes crazy. Let's say everybody's healthy and hitting like mad dogs. Let's say we score 850 runs, which is about what the Cards scored last year.

850 runs with a 4.70 ERA---86 wins.
850 runs with a 4.30 ERA--93 wins. That's what it will take to get a serious look at the post-season.

Finally, what do we have to do to get our ERA to 4.79. Well, to begin with, here are the 2004 ERAs.

Starters: 5.23. (15th)
Relievers 5.12 (16th)

To get to 4.70, we need only to get to:

Starters: 4.88 (13th)
Relievers 4.50 (13th)

This is actually a doable number, don't you think?

To get to 4.3, we need something a little dramatic, and a lot more from the bullpen.

Starters: 4.52 (10th)
Relievers 4.00 (7th)

So, if we can have a middle of the pack bullpen and a slightly below average starting staff, and then score 850 runs like the Cardinals did last year, we're in the wild card hunt.

More likely is my .500 scenario. But let's watch.