FalconBlog--Triumphs and Trials in the BGSU Falcon Nation

The National League's Worst Bullpen

Its a simple concept. We know, statistically, how many runs a team would be expected to score if certain situations. For example, second and third with one out, versus first and third with two outs.

The guys at BP are now using this to evaluate relievers. Makes tons of sense. You rate them based on how many runs above or below that average they allow.

Its rather elegant. Do they do their job well, or poorly, based on what would be expected. Pitchers who inherit really tough situations get a break. Guys who start innings are worse off.

The news from this is not good for the Reds. They are the NL's worst bullpen, allowing 26.2 runs more than the expected number this season, through Saturday's debable in St. Louis.

Now, to be fair, more than half of those are Ryan Wagner's (13.8). In fact, Ryan himself gave up more runs above average than all but four teams have done in the Majors all SEASON.

Only Rocky Biddle of the Expos is worse in the NL.

Close by is Phil Norton (9.7 worse than average) following last night's debacle.

Danny Graves, by the way, about four runs worse than average. Not good closer numbers. I think one implication of this is if you start an inning, as he often does, with a low expected runs, and give up a HR, which he does a lot, your average takes a big hit. But, you're not supposed to give up as many homers as Danny does.

The Reds best reliver is Todd Jones, at plus 9.1.

The Reds bullpen is poor...no question about it. Add to these numbers that valuable $ are being way overspent on Graves (who, at a lower cost is still a servicable pitcher), and you have an area where work is needed.

Grim today---unless Bong pulls another good outing off, it looks like a Redbird sweep.