Spartans, Spartans, Spartans

Having beat USC-Upstate and San Jose State, BG has an opportunity to go 3-0 in Spartanland Saturday in Norfolk, VA.

The Norfolk State Spartans are in the MEAC, where they are very successful.  Over the last four years, they have won 73% of their conference games and they have played in the CIT every year.  They have 19 winning seasons in the conference.  And Blue Ribbon picked them to win it this year.

Problem is, the MEAC is a play-in conference, one of the two lowest ranked conferences in D1.   The highest ranked team is #286 on kenpom.

Now, things don't always go as planned.  Last year at the Stroh, the Spartans led by as much as 7 in the second half and led as late as 8 minutes to go before BG closed strong to win by 9.  If I recall correctly, the game caused significant angst inside the Falcon nation last year.

And we're a team that went to OT against Lake Erie College because Coach said we took them lightly.

Anyhow, the storyline is pretty similar this year.  They come in 0-7 and ranked #324 out of 351 in the nation.  To my point, they lost by 9 to Kent just last week in Norfolk.  They also lost to a D-III school in Norfolk.  Other losses are to Auburn, San Diego, Grand Canyon, Robert Morris and Little Rock, with the last two being the only ones that were on the negative side as losses go.  Only Lynchburg and Kent were at home, Robert Morris was neutral.

So we are well aware of BG's struggles on defense this year, but if these Spartans start scoring on us at will, then we will know the struggle is real.  Norfolk scores .86 points per possession, which is among the 15 worst in the country.  That's just a really low amount.  Very difficult to win when you only score that much....the lowest offensive output which was resulted in a BG win over the past 5 years was .91 points per possession.  If you are going to succeed, you will need to play lockdown D, which they also do not.

So, what is the cause of the offensive woes?  Both the shooting and turnover numbers are just awful...both in the bottom 25 in the country.  If you turn the ball over and miss a lot of shots, it is tough to score and being below average on the boards doesn't help.  They are making 38.8% of the 2FGs, which is just astounding, especially given that their FGA mix is more 2-heavy than average.  They are also below average making 3s.  Remember, much of this was true (if not AS true) for San Jose State and they had one guy turn into Steph Curry against us, but this is a team that really struggles to score.

Flipping this around, you can also see that Norfolk State isn't great defensively either.  Mostly, they have been easy to shoot against, #306 in the conference.  They are good at forcing turnovers, although this has been BG's strength this year.  They aren't great on the defensive boards or at preventing free throws. 

Their leading scorer is 6'3" G Stephen Whitley, scoring 12 PPG on 38% shooting, which is a tough way to go.  He adds 6 rebounds with 3.3 assists and turnovers at a 1:1 ratio.

Their only other double-figure scorer is Mastadi Pitt, who is a FR G, scoring 10.3 PPG on 42% shooting.

So, look, on paper this is a game BG should win.  Now last year it was tougher than expected and BG has a couple young players who seem much more comfortable at home than on the road.  This should be a win, but with a team this young, every game is interesting.