Saturday, March 07, 2015

UB-BG by the numbers

Friday's Buffalo game is a perfect example of why Effective FG% is the right stat to use.  Remember, EFG% is where you give a team 1 FGM made for a 2-FG (as is normal) and 1.5 for a 3FG.  It allows the stat to reflect whether the team is taking and making high risk and high reward shots.

On the traditional stats, BG and Buffalo were very close.  Overall, BG shot 43% and Buffalo 42% and from 3 Buffalo shot 46% and BG 47%.  The difference was that Buffalo's 42% overall FG% came from 24 3 attempts and BG only tried 15.  So, in EFG% Buffalo had 52% and BG shot 48%.  Made FTs were even for the game so the made 3s were the difference.

Overall, UB scored 1.07 points per possession.  As noted in my preview, that's actually below the 1.12 they have been getting.  Meanwhile, BG scored 1.04, which is well above the .93 that Buffalo had been allowing in their previous 5 games.

Turnovers were pretty even and 2 of BG's came in about 1 second at the end of the game.  Perhaps the most impressive stat is the rebounding.  Buffalo had been owning the boards on both ends of the court, but BG held them well below their average on the offensive boards and actually had a good game on their own offensive boards--both without Richaun Holmes for most of the game.  (To be fair, Justin Moss only played 21 minutes as well due to fouls).

Buffalo got to the line more, as they usually do.  However (and this was critical to keeping BG in the game), they only made 57% and BG made 70%.  In the end, made FTs were even.
Individually, you can't talk about this game without talking about Justin Moss.  He played 21 minutes due to fouls.  He scored 19 points on 6 of 9 shooting and had 9 rebounds in those 21 minutes.  That's your MAC POY and he is an absolute beast.

Also, you need to talk about Josh Gomez.  Gomez is a big guy but saw virtually no action for much of the year.  When he did, it was hard to see him do anything impressive.  He was behind Mayleben on the depth chart.  Then, a few games ago, he started to make little contributions in limited minutes spelling Holmes.

Well, clearly he needed to contribute Friday.  He played 20 minutes....scored 8 points on 4 of 7 shooting and had 8 rebounds.  Without that contribution, we're not talking about this as a close game.

Jehvon Clarke had a monster game for the Falcons.  He scored 21 points on 8 of 15 shooting and 2 of 3 from 3FG to go with 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals...and 5 TOs, to be fair.  Still, that's a senior picking up his game with Holmes out.

Anthony Henderson scored 19 on 6 of 9 shooting and making all 5 of his 3FGs and had 5 rebounds.  David Joseph, who has been struggling to score, had 13 points on 5 of 10 shooting and 4 of those points came in the final minute.  Also, 4 assists over 2 rebounds.  

Amazingly, with Holmes out Gomez played 20 minutes and Dickerson only played 13 minutes.  Moss's foul problems helped with that, but BG ran a small lineup out there and our guards kept us in the game and nearly won it.

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