Monday, February 24, 2014

Standings, February 24

So here is what it all looks like.

This is not looking great for BG.

Here's why.

First, BG is 2 games and a tiebreaker down to EMU with 4 to play, so we are not likely to catch them.

To get home court, BG needs to beat two of the following three teams:  Kent, NIU and Miami.

BG loses head-head tiebreakers to NIU and Miami and would have trouble in any 3-way tiebreaker that includes those teams, especially Miami.

BG is also one game behind all of those teams.

To start with, either Kent or Miami will get to 7 wins, because they play each other.  If it is Kent, BG could get into a tie with them by winning twice in four games and would need one of the wings to be over Kent.  If Miami beats Kent and ends up with 7 wins, BG needs 8 and three out of four coming home.

NIU could easily finish 7-11 with their remaining schedule, which would require BG to win 3 games in its remaining 4.

Anyhow, BG has shown itself capable of pulling surprises, but the loss at Miami Sunday made this really tough.  At this point, BG is likely to be on the road for the MAC tournament.  BG has been home the last two years and lost to low-seeded teams, so it could still get us to Cleveland.  BG's last conference road game was in the 2010 tournament, losing to WMU by 2.

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