Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Flashes Redux

BG gets a second shot at the Golden Flashes tomorrow night.  The first game ended with Devereaux Manley draining a 3 at the buzzer to take a 2-point BG lead to a 1-point Kent win in the blink of an eye...probably the most disappointing of BG's last second losses, if only because they were ahead and BG only needed to defend for :03 to get the win.

Statistically, the game was incredibly close.  The difference in the game was that Kent made 9 3s in their shot mix and BG only made 4.  It was a 1 point game, so you expect it to be close in the stats.  You'd also expect BG to have a nice shot out there tomorrow on home floor.  They need it.  I haven't run the numbers, but without a win BG has nearly no shot of getting home court, given the games it faces after this one.

Kent is 7th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency, conference games only.  BG is last in offense and 2nd in defensive efficiency and #21 in the country.  History has shown us that BG needs to play strong defense and get at least some kind of offensive output, and it would appear that situation is available for them here.

Kent is 4th in the MAC in shooting, so they are dangerous with the shot.  They like the 3FG--they are 2nd in attempts and 5th in %.  BG simply has to keep those off the board...that was the one thing that sunk them the first time.  As you can see, they take average care of the ball.  They re not good on the offensive boards--helpful to BG--and they do not get to the line at all.  They have a deficit of 102 made free throws in 14 conference games, which is over 7 per game.  BG has to exploit that.  Kent is a poor FT shooting team, at 64%.

On the opposite side, Kent is a team people can shoot against.  They are average on turnovers and offensive rebounds and, as you can see, give up a ton of FTs.  BG has struggled to shoot and make FTs this year, and will need those things tomorrow to get the win.  I haven't heard anything about Anthony Henderson's injury, but obviously without him things get even more difficult.

Kent has two inefficient double-figure scorers--Kris Brewer (12.4 PPG, 38% FG) and Derek Jackson (11.1/43%).  Now, those numbers include a bunch of 3FGs, so you have to take that into account.  Mark Henninger is their leading rebounds at 4.2 (which is not a lot) Brewer leads them with 3.5 assists.  Also contributing are Devereaux Manley (the dagger-man from game 1) and Darren Goodson.

Anyway, BG's odds are long already for home court but very long with a loss. The good thing is that this is a winnable game for the Falcons, if they can make some shots.  I know this has to be a long season for the guys, but they have continued to play hard and if they do the same tomorrow, I'd like our chances.

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