Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Does BG's men's basketball team foul too much?

I started writing this post because I thought BG was fouling too much...or at least a lot...but after care review, the issue is not so much the bulk number of fouls, but how many free throws they are causing.

BG is committing 19.1 fouls per game, which is 7th in the MAC, so not all that bad.

However, BG is allow 22.3 FTs per game, which is 10th in the MAC, so there must be some kind of disconnect.  My theory is the fouls on BG are more likely to be shooting fouls and result in free throws than perhaps some of the other teams, who are committing fouls before someone gets around to shooting.

And, when we delve a little deeper, we see that BG is giving up 1.17 free throws per foul, which is by far the highest in the MAC.  If that was all double bonus stuff, you'd think it would show up in total fouls, so I am sticking with my theory that BG's fouls are more likely to be in the act of shooting.

The tempo free stat is a free throw rate, which is the number of free throws attempts for each field goal attempted.  The idea is that for each time a team didn't turn the ball over, how often did they get a shot off and how often did they earn a free throw.

BG is last in the MAC in this category, at 43.3, which means that for every field goal attempt against BG, there are .43 free throws.  Toledo leading the MAC at .26, which is pretty close to half of BG's rate. The Falcons are 287th in the country in free throw rate against.

There is a very clear home road difference.  BG had been over 20 fouls 8 times...and 6 of those came on the road and they were all losses.  The only road game where BG did not have foul issues was their one win @FIU.

Looked at another way, when the free throw rate is worse than .43, BG is 2-5...which is what you would expect.

The fouls were probably fresh in my mind due to the spate of recent road games.   One fear I had was that the man was causing more fouls, but BG is only 1 foul a game more than last year, when the team played almost 100% zone.

But, it is clear that if BG is not fouling too much, it is allowing the opposing team to the line way too much.  Even accounting for some late game fouling, BG is the worst team in the MAC.  In the long grind of a conference season, that's going to be tough to succeed with.

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