Sunday, February 14, 2010

RedHawk Preview deux

So, the evil genius Charlie Coles enters Anderson Arena, riding a team that is playing really well, as we expect from Miami under the diabolical tutelage of Coach Coles.  Based on their normal formula, they played a nut-busting out-of-conference schedule, struggle a little bit early and then catch fire just in team for when the games start to be really meaningful.

Miami has won 5 in a row and six of 7 dating back to their win against BG down at Millett.  The game was tied with 11 minutes left, but from there Miami took control and won by 12.  They shot 46% against BG's 40%, had a 10 point free throw advantage and held BG to 2 offensive rebounds.  Miami also hit half of their 3FG shots.

So, what has to happen this time for BG to win?  All that stuff has to get better.  BG has to defend better on all shots, get to the boards better and get to the line more effectively.

For a basic profile, Miami plays a lot like us.  They play at an achingly slow pace and are an average offensive team.  They are, however, much more effective on the defensive end, but still only 4th in the conference in defensive efficiency.  They makes this work by playing with incredible consistency.  You don't have to lead the conference in anything, you just have to score more than your opponent.  Their style leaves little margin for error, which is fine when you are don't have off nights.

Looking quickly at the four factors when BG has the ball...Miami plays bend but don't break, and doesn't try to force turnovers.  Two key factors will be on the offensive boards, where BG simply has to do better, and getting to the foul line where Miami is  good and BG struggles.

Flipping things around, when you look at this chart, I think you can see that we can pretty much know what Miami will do with the ball. The key elements will be when BG has the ball.

As a refresher, they are lead by Kenny Hayes with 14 PPG, and Nick Winbush and Julian Mavunga with about 9.  Mavunga is also getting 6.5 rebounds a game.

They were all 3 in double figures the first time, and Hayes had 17.  Dee Brown had a nice day for the Falcons, but the inside game struggled quite a bit.

The schedule coming down the stretch for BG is brutal.  BG has played well in spots, but hasn't really exceeded its comfort zone since the Kent win.  It will be that kind of win if BG can get it on Sunday at Anderson Arena.

No comments :