Thursday, February 25, 2010

Permutations V

OK, students.  Now its getting interesting....or at least it is getting to the end.  With two games left in the MAC season, let us look at where things stand.

OK....starting at the top, Kent and Akron have both clinched byes.  As far as the #1 seed and the NIT bid, obviously, the most likely scenario is that the winner of the game between Kent and Akron at the MAC Center will get first.  If they were each to go 1-1 coming home, Kent would take first if they beat Akron.  If Akron beats Kent, then it would depend on who ends up in 3rd, because the record against that team would decide.  

Now, moving down a little, let's look at how BG might get a home game in the tournament.  It is looking pretty rough, no doubt about that.

The first scenario, and the most unlikely, would be BG winning both games coming home.  This opens up the possibility of seven teams finishing 8-8--how appropriate would that be? Anyway, that gets pretty complicated, as you'd need common records within the 7 team tie, but would only a couple teams BG beat--OU (in the two-win scenario) and EMU and Miami.

By the way, these huge logjam ties being split on hair's breadth differences is one of the reasons why the coaches opposed the first round home games as opposed to everyone going to the Q.

To the other extreme, if BG goes 0-2 coming home, they will be on the road.

Now, what if there is 1 win and 1 loss.  The most likely of these scenarios is that BG loses to Akron and beats OU. BG would be 7-9.  Of the teams near us, we most want to tie with EMU and NIU.  Our unproductive trip through the West has left us with poor tiebreakers with CMU, WMU, and we would have split with OU.

Even at 1-1, it looks to me like we would pretty much have to draw to an inside straight to get this one locked away.  

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