Season Scenarios

OK, so it is now game week.  Coach Jinks has a presser later today.  By Saturday, we will be back in play again.  Let's enjoy it, kids!

Wanted to look at some various scenarios for the season.  As I noted in my previews, I think this team is set up for an incremental improvement.  We need that at least.  Our coaches have yet to prove they can execute a winning game plan against a good team.  We need a couple wins to know that we have the coaches to convert the talent they are recruiting into championship players.

The schedule is tough.  Honestly, in my view, if BG goes 6-6 and makes a bowl game, that's acceptable progress.  That's not guaranteed.  A 5-7 or even 4-8 record is possible...especially if the team is hit by injuries and especially then in a couple areas where depth is probably not what it should be (both lines, the d backfield, for example).  Even with relative health, 6-6 is not guaranteed.

Here's why.  BG has three very difficult non-conference road games.  Odds are strong you start the conference season 1-3.

So, you need to find 5 wins in the MAC.

Yes, Buffalo, Akron and Kent are beatable.  However, you play at Buffalo and at Kent.

In terms of the division leaders, you play @Miami and have OU at home, both tough games.

Cross-over games are really tough.  You have NIU and UT at home and then you are @EMU--a team that is getting better every year.

Another 4-8 year is not out of the question.

So.  A few scenarios.

The Reasonable Expectation:

BG beats South Dakota, Buffalo, Kent and Akron.  And then, let's add EMU and Miami.  Or OU.  See what I mean?

Somewhat above expectations

So, to go 7-5 (6-2 in MAC), you'd have to beat Miami and OU.  Or pick off one of cross-over games...NIU or UT??  If this happens, you have a very good shot to win the division or be in a tie-breaker.

A full-throated, THIS THING IS HAPPENING

You go 8-4.  Whether that's 7-1 in MAC play or you pick off an upset in one of the non-conference games.  Either way, this team wins 8 games and we can stop worrying.

Somewhat below what you'd like to see

Team goes 5-7.  You're going to need to beat EMU, Miami, or OU to get this done, probably.  The 6-6 scenario has 2 wins among those 3.  This one has 1.

A long summer of hand wringing

Team goes 4-8.  You beat none of those three.  This is possible.  Team makes no progress over last year as it relates to the win/loss record.

I don't want to think about it

Team goes 2-10.  You beat South Dakota and Kent.  This scenario isn't very likely because I honestly think we are going to be better.  On the other hand, everyone else is working to get better.  Last year we had the easy part of the schedule at the end and this year it is kind of in the middle.  It is not impossible, especially if you have injuries.

Again, from my view, a 6-6 win is a success for this team.  (Also, anybody hanging 70 on us again would make it tough to be upbeat about the year).  Anything better is great.  Anything less is not the end of the world (obviously) and doesn't mean the Jinks experiment has failed.  It just means we haven't gotten any evidence it is going to work and it sets you up for a third year that will be a make or break year.