Phil Steele....#1

First of all, it is ghastly hot.  The heat is oppressive.  Hard to think football and basketball in this kind of torpor...still, I was shocked to see that this is my first post in June.

Anyway, despite the heat, despite the calendar, this is a big day in college football's annual passing of the seasons.  NO, not because it is the day after Terelle Pryor left OSU (he swore he was coming back, of course, that was to a guy who didn't come back).

It is because the Phil Steele football book comes out today.  Ohhhh yes.  Sweet deliverance.  Wallow in the minutiae.  Mmmm.  No one...I'm saying NO ONE, covers college football for the fan with a diagnosable disorder as well as Phil.

He has been popping a couple of blog posts up that I wanted to repost and comment on.

One of the things that he has found over time is that there are certain metrics which help you predict success, and those tend to be pretty reliable.  Today, we will look at one that has actually been written about in the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, etc....that is returning starts on the offensive line.

The theory is simple.  Teams with experienced lines are more likely to be competitive than teams with young offensive lines.  Obviously, this is not perfect...there is always the Eastern Michigan problem (getting 40 starts on their O-line might or might not indicate that you are a good player...somebody has to start), and there are also players who might have gotten some reps but not starts, and you'd like to consider that, but that solution doesn't scale.

Last year, BG was 99th with 41 starts returning.  And, with a couple injuries, the offensive line did melt down, through no fault of the guys who were down there doing everything they could.  The situation is much better this year...BG has 63 returning starts,  which is 65th in the country (or somewhere just south of the median for FBS).

I think that reflects what I expect to see happen--an improvement, but let's not get crazy.  There is still work to do.  There are unknowns, including two JUCO players who don't have D1 starts, but might be able to make a contribution...in general, though, I'd say that is a fair assessment and maybe even on the high side of fair.

Our conference competition is fairly strong...we are 9th in the MAC in returning O-line starts.

1. NIU  116
2. Temple 111
3. Miami 98
4. Ball 96
5. Kent 89
6. UT  85
7. CMU 69
8. EMU 64
9. BGSU 63
10. Buffalo 58
11. WMU 50
12. Akron 49
13. OU  39

Random thoughts...

I think OU's style is tough to play this way.
Another long year for Akron?
WMU has to rebuild this year?
NIU?  Dang.