Our model--the Miami RedHawks

I have observed before that it seems to me that Coach Orr wants to develop a team that plays like the Miami RedHawks under Charlie Coles.

What does that mean? It means that you play low-tempo basketball where you are very hard to score on, limit possessions, and take run an efficient offense.

And Miami has had lots of success with this formula. It isn't always pretty, but it is something you can win with.

With that in mind, I wanted to demonstrate something that gets forgotten about Miami, with the convention stats we use.

I have been following something called "tempo-free" stats for basketball. The idea is pretty simple. If you are pushing the ball and shooting quickly, you are going to score more. But, you also give your opponents more chances to score. For that reason, points scored per game are not the best way to measure efficiency.

Rather, we are more interested in the points per possession on both sides of the floor. And the theory I wanted to test was that Miami, despite apparently anemic point per game output, is actually a very efficient offensive team, converting possessions into points.

Looking at 2007-8, the RedHawks were 10th in the MAC in points per game and first in scoring defense. But when you go to kenpom.com, and check out their tempo free stats, you find something very interesting.

They were the MAC's third most efficient offense, 1.067 points per possession. They were the MAC's second most efficient defense, at .97 points per possession. This combination is tough to beat.

And the reason I was looking is that, in my opinion, while we are seeing teams struggle to shoot against Bowling Green, we need still to develop a more efficient offense before we are ready to truly take advantage of our strong D.

Here's a profile of how Miami did last year on key measures, and how we have done this year against DI opposition.

Overall Efficiency

Offense

Miami 1.067 BG .995

Defense

Miami .97 BG .962

Effective FG% (treys count for 1.5).

Miami (51.5) Bowling Green (47)

Turnover percentage (as in number of possessions with a turnover).

Miami 19.7% Bowling Green 20.5%

Offensive rebounding % (percent of rebound battles won on offensive side)

Miami 31.7% Bowling Green (34.7)

FTM/FGA (A measure of how you get to the line).

Miami 21.7% Bowling Green (16.6, one of the worst in the country--331/344)

Point distribution

Miami
FT (17.4%)
2FG (55.4%)
3FG (27.2%)

Bowling Green

FT (15%)
2fg (56.4%)
3FG (28.6%)

And one defensive measure (FTA/FGA) to mesure how the teams get to the line against you.

Miami (30.9) Bowling Green (44.1)

What does that all mean. It means that we are really getting there on defense. In fact, if we didn't foul so much, we'd be really tough to score against.

And on offense? We don't shoot as well as Miami, nor take care of the ball well enough to be consistently effective.

I think this gives us an interesting snapshot of where we are. I think the team is making progress, but there are clear areas of improvement still needed.