Saturday, December 21, 2019

Bad Night in New Jersey...

BG MBB experienced its first bad loss this season...and it was a bad one...in Atlantic City.  Not sure what the gambling metaphor is...did we hit on 19?  Anyway, BG lost in OT to Norfolk State, a team they should have beaten and in fact led by 11 inside the last media timeout.  Based on the kenpom rankings, it's the worst team Huger has lost to in his time at BG.  Chris Jans lost to a non-d1 team that was probably better than Norfolk State...and the last time BG lost to a lower ranked team was to IUPUI on a neutral floor in 2013 under Coach Orr.

Seems to be the season for bad losses in the MAC.  It happens...long season, marathon, etc.  And, we know there was never an at-large bid out there, so it actually doesn't count against anything.  Chances are exactly the same as they were before...even so...you know what I mean.

Norfolk State had the better of the play the whole way.  BG was never really in command of the game...up only 3 with about 7 to play, BG went on an 8-0 run to go up 10 with 3:22 left.  Things were beginning to feel normal.  That's what you are supposed to do when you get into a situation like that...make enough plays at the end to steal the win on a night you didn't play your best.

According to ESPN, a team with an 11 point lead with 3:22 left wins that game 97.5% of the time.

Instead, BG did not score again in regulation, while Norfolk State, one of the 13 worst 3-FG shooting teams in the country nailed 3 in those last 3 minutes while BG was missing shots and turning the ball over on offense.  Essentially, a complete collapse by the Falcons on both ends of the floor in a situation where only a partial or even near-total collapse gets you out with a win.

The game went to OT...Norfolk made 3 of 4 from 3FG in the OT, led by 6 inside of 1:30 to play and made their FTs in the last minute to win the game.

Not a good night at all.

A couple things.  First, Coach went on about our "horrendous" defense on the post-game. The game was tied in regulation at 55.  Even in a slow-tempo game, which this was, you have to expect to win at 55.  Cleveland State scored 58.  I know Coach always wants to focus on defense, but the offense was the culprit in this one.

BG's offensive formula to date was to shoot just OK but rarely turn the ball over, creating more shots and enough points to win.  BG is #227 in shooting in the nation.  They entered the game at #4 in taking care of the ball.

Well, that formula has been tested in the last two games.  BG has turned the ball over on 22% of its possessions in both games...against CSU the Falcons shot fairly well and made up for it, but against NSU we shot poorly (worst since Nevada) and turned the ball over.  Meanwhile, NSU had its best 3-point shooting game of the season against the BG defense and the whole this turns into a highly forgettable affair.



So, here's the thing.  Last year BG had a similar loss to Cleveland State.  It actually served to be a building block/turning point.  As Herb Brooks said, "a loss never hurts a good team."  The good thing is that they get a chance to get right back at the game against Quinnipiac...another game on paper they should win easily.

One thing is that teams have seen that CSU was able to turn BG over with pressure and I think you will see more of that.  The Falcons struggled against Norfolk's pressure some of the time...and then sometimes were just careless with the ball.  With this team, there's no excuse for us not being prepared to respond to pressure after these warnings....

I believe BG will respond today with a more focused effort and can head to the holiday on a win.  With a loss, going to be a long holiday...

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