Friday, December 06, 2019

Oakland Preview

Following a week off, BG has the Oakland Golden Grizzlies coming to town.  Oakland is a common opponent that plays a lot of MAC teams...and they are coached by Greg Kampe, a former BG two-sport player.

BG has played Oakland 8 times and lost 5 of the games.  In fact, they have lost THE LAST 5, in that Oakland has a five-game winning streak over BG.  The GG have never played at the Stroh. 

They were picked 5th out of 10 in the Horizon this year.  They lost @NIU by 24, @UT by 2 and won @ WMU by 10.  Overall, they are 5-4 with a kenpom of 170.

To date, Oakland has shown themselves to be a slow-paced, defensively-minded team this year.  Their games have only 64.5 possessions, #333 in the nation.  BG plays at 74 possessions, the 29th fastest in the country.

So controlling the pace will be key.

As you can see below, OU's offensive efficiency is a halftick below the national average and BG's defense is a little better.  If the Falcons do indeed get stops, that will bode well for pushing the pace.  The big spread is the other way, as BG is scoring effectively and the GG are struggling to make baskets.

So let's look at that one first.  BG doesn't shoot very well and OU is effective guarding the shot.  They are above average guarding 2FG and 3FG...and BG is very good at making 3FGs and poor at 2FGs.  It's unusual for a team to score as well as it does while not shooting great...but the key is turnovers.  BG is #2 in the nation in not turning the ball over, which gives the offense extra possessions to score, even when not shooting well.  BG is not going great at offensive rebounding or getting to the line...and OU excels at those two things.  They are #30 at preventing FTs.

Looking the other way, things are similar.  OU is a poor shooting team...worse than BG.  They are average shooting 2FGs but awful (28%) from 3FG.  As expected, their shot mix leans to 2FG.  They turn the ball over a lot but they are decent on their offensive boards.  The trouble point is in the last column...they get to the line a lot (like teams with the ball in the paint typically do) and BG has given up a load of FTs.  They good thing is they are making 67%, which isn't great.  If the GG are getting to the line, though, and start making them, that's a chance for them to compete.

Individually, they are led by All-Horizon F Xavier Hill-Mais.  He's a 6'7" SR who is built like a football player.  He's scoring 15 a game on 57% shooting and 7.4 RPG.  Their other double-figurer scorer is Daniel Oladapo, a 6'7" SO JUCO transfer.  He's scoring 11.8 on 57% shooting and adding over 7 rebounds as well.

These guys are both formidable.

Their PG is Kevin Kangu, who has a 1:1 assist/to ratio and shoots 32% overall and 27% from 3FG.

I haven't heard anything but would be shocked to see Turner play.  This is a game BG should win but Oakland always plays hard, nearly beat Toledo and has been beating us.

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