Tuesday, April 10, 2018

MBB Review....Shooting Scourge

Back to men's basketball for a minute.  I wrote a little bit about this back when the transfers popped up, but since then let's take a more in-depth look.

Since then, things have stabilized, though not in a great place.  Just not in a worse place.  BG has 8 scholarship players and one player signed.  There haven't been any more transfers and there haven't been any additional verbal commits that I am aware of.  Spring signing opens on Wednesday.

I also wrote about the trend toward transfers in the MAC and that BG needs to hop on this train.  The trend of transferring out is not unique to BG...Akron and UT have both lost transfers in the last week.  I just don't think there are enough situations where guys are willing to start small as a FR and grow into a role.

Anyway.  Let's take a look at what's going on in the program.

I know that coach would like to say that all the issues we have are on defense.  But, I'm going to suggest that there are other issues.

Simply put, BG was the worst offensive team in the MAC in conference play.  We scored 1 point per possession (1.001).  That's just not good in any way.  In order to be .500 with that kind of offense, BG would need to be the #78 team in the NCAA in defense and the #2 team in the MAC.  And that's to be .500.  To win 60% of their games, they'd need to be around .96, which would be #1 in the MAC and top 20 in the country.

I know....if we got some stops we'd be in transition and be able to get some easy baskets.  I do get that.

But that just doesn't stand up to reason as the entire reason for our offensive struggles.  Remember, we were last in the MAC.  BG was 11th in 3FG% and 12th in 2FG%.  (BG's 2FG% is one of the 30 worst in D1 basketball).  Yes, those numbers might tweak up a little bit with some fast breaks, but what are we talking, five or six a game?  And you aren't going to score on them all.

The numbers are positively Orrian.  From my perspective, BG has never acquired a critical mass of playmakers on any given team and therefore is unable to break through and win on a consistent basis.  BG has been 11th or 12th in offense for all three of Huger's seasons.  The last time they were in the top half of the MAC in offense was 2012.

BG's shot mix is 2-heavy.  They were 10th in the MAC in the ratio of 3FG attempted.  If you are going to do that, you have to make 2 FGS and BG just didn't. 

A strength of BG's attack was getting fouled.  BG was second in free throw rate.  Unfortunately, a Falcon team that shot FTs well in November and December was 10th in the MAC in FT%.  Anytime BG was required to get the ball through that orange ring, we ran into issues.

BG was 7th in turnover percentage and third in offensive rebounding percentage.  All of the metrics were good except for the most important one, which is making shots.

Only one regular on the team had a D1 average EFG% and that was Wiggins.  Matt Fox did as well.  Only two players made 50% of their 2FGs...(the D1 average), and Lillard made it just barely.  Only one player shot above the D1 average of 35% 3FG and that was Turner and just barely.  (MAC Games only for all of this).

BG just doesn't have even average shooters and they are never going to play good enough defense to compensate.  They do everything else well enough to win.  More on the defense soon.

1 comment :

Perry Boise said...

Hopefully Matiss comes back after his injury stronger, bigger and ready. If I remember correctly he was a dead eye on 3 pointers in high school.